Most Powerful Handicapping Angles

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

the distance cut-back was mentioned, and while I like this angle in certain spots, its far from fool-proof. some cutbacks are too far or don't make sense, and on some circuits cutbacks don't work worth a damn period. on the contrary, on some circuit cutbacks do very well. you have to do your research.

two examples, last year if you did nothing other than make flat win bets on every horse at Keeneland going route to sprint, you would have made a tidy +16% roi. do the same thing last year at Arlington and you lose 35%, at Santa Anita you lose 45%.

so I guess i'm just saying it is a good angle, but it takes some work to find the spots where it is best used.

Good data, but hard to know if those diffs are just random or real. If you can show a positive roi for the previous year or two at Keenland, that would mean more. Or better yet, include some measure of the uncertainty in the +16% fig.

fwiw, my fav angle is betting against a claimer who won last time out but is racing again for the same claiming value.

--Dunbar

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Good data, but hard to know if those diffs are just random or real. If you can show a positive roi for the previous year or two at Keenland, that would mean more. Or better yet, include some measure of the uncertainty in the +16% fig.

fwiw, my fav angle is betting against a claimer who won last time out but is racing again for the same claiming value.

--Dunbar

I don't know what the uncertainty would be for that number at Keeneland, but you're right it could be an aberration because of the relatively small number of races run there in one year. there does seem to be a polytrack edge for cutbacks, if you exclude Arlington that is.

fyi, on your favorite bet against angle, i just ran a query for that scenario for last year and found that you're definitely right in avoiding that one.