Two puzzling things about the Travers...

[Dunbar]

Wow, Scav, thanks. I totally missed that. And, I REALLY don't like it. It means when you bet in NY, you are NOT getting the full benefit of its 14% track take. The bettors elsewhere automatically raise the effective track take in NY. The amount they raise it depends on how much they bet. In the case of Bernardini, the track takeout in the place pool was AT LEAST 14.54%. It had to be that big to force the payoff down below $2.20.

I'll have to think about the other aspects of the "net-Pool" pricing. Maybe there is a good side to it, too. But I hate not being able to calculate accurate payoffs from the tote board info.

Thanks again for the info.

--Dunbar

[Scav]

ALOT of tracks are going to it. I know Arlington was one of the first NA tracks to do it, and I think Woodbine does it, along with California and Florida now

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Scav

ALOT of tracks are going to it. I know Arlington was one of the first NA tracks to do it, and I think Woodbine does it, along with California and Florida now

Here's a link that shows NY went to it in October, 2005.

http://www.nyra.com/belmont/news.asp?id=1758&track=B

It may not be as awful as I initially thought. Apparently it primarily affects pricing in place and show pools. (pools with multiple "winners") I think we can still assume the track takeout on win bets in NY is 14%.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

fyi, I just calculated that under the old system (pre-October 2005), Bluegrass Cat would have paid $2.40 to place.

Odds to 1 = (0.86 * 458,761 - 231,405 - 114,350)/(2 * 114,350) = 0.2133.

$2 Payoff = 2 * 0.2133 + 2 = $2.42, which is $2.40 after breakage.

He actually paid $2.50. So, as the links suggested, when a big fav is involved in a place or show payoff, the payoff on big fav may go down, while payoffs on the others go up.

btw, there was a third "puzzle" that I think I understand now. The number I had for the total place pool at YouBet was actually $1 more than the sum of the individual pool amounts. I think that was a result of currency conversions when Canadian and other money is put into the NY pool. With roundoff, you can easily get that kind of $1 difference.

--Dunbar

[Cajungator26]

Holy shiat, Dunbar...

Thanks for making me think this morning. LMAO You can tell I'm not an accounting major.

[randallscott35]

The NYRA is now at 15%. Has been since Belmont Summer meet. The payout was correct. Breakage sucks and screws the bettor.

Originally Posted by randallscott35

The NYRA is now at 15%. Has been since Belmont Summer meet. The payout was correct. Breakage sucks and screws the bettor.

That's why it's called "breakage" ...

... they're doing everything they can to break you.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

The NYRA is now at 15%. Has been since Belmont Summer meet.

Thanks, Randall. I should have known that! Seems to me that the rise to 15% didn't get as much play as when they dropped it to 14%. Heck, this time last year they had proposed dropping the take to 13%.

Here's a link to track takes at most tracks. I should have checked this (again) before posting:

http://brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cg...out&header=off

Originally Posted by randallscott35

The payout was correct. Breakage sucks and screws the bettor.

Well, we can only ASSUME that the payout was correct. In fact, if you calculate the place payoff on Bluegrass Cat using a 15% track take, you come up with $2.39, which would be rounded down to $2.30. So the bettors got a real bargain when they collected $2.50 because of the new "Net-Pool" policy.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Breakage sucks and screws the bettor.

That's true, but at least NY only takes half the breakage as other tracks. Are there any other tracks that round the payoff odds to 0.05?

--Dunbar