|
|
 |
|
|
|
#1
12-25-2008, 03:10 PM
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks for the heads up Doc.
|
|
#3
12-25-2008, 03:58 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Ask whatever questions you want and the TG players here can help you walk through it. I host the Thoro-Graph Seminars at Saratoga on the weekends and Scav has helped do statistical research work for Jerry Brown. A number of others here a very familiar with the figures and patterns as well. Spend a few minutes reading through the basic explanation page first though to get a feel for what is on the sheets. From there, you are looking to "read the pattern" of each horse in a race as a means t project what kind of effort to expect today. Is the horse ready to establish a new "top"? Is the horse likely to regress ("bounce" or "off" or "X") because his last effort was a strenuous one? Has a horse coming off a new top he had enough time since that effort to expect a similar performance ("pair"). There is a lot to it, and it takes time to understand the patterns, but the figures are a tremendous tool which I use daily and believe in implicitly. We're meeting people for a Dinner shortly, but will check back later to see if there is anything you came up with. I would encourage everyone interested to register at Thoro-Graph and use the free product all week. http://www.thorograph.com/ We can use the thread as a Q and A for anyone learning the product...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
|
|
#4
12-25-2008, 04:01 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Go through some of the Race of the Week pages to see how these things are interpreted. I've been using them for a few years, and someday's I too have no idea what I'm looking at 
|
|
#5
12-25-2008, 05:50 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
The key to using the TG's, for myself, is using them in company with the pp's.
I see alot of 10k claimers running really good tg figs, alot of times the same as what a nice 50k claimer would be running. However, if the 2 horses ran in the same race, we all know who would win. Basically, It comes down to the most important thing in capping a race; CLASS. I like seeing the patterns of each horse in the race. Which tend to jump out much more for me when using the Thoro-quick layout. I also like the trainer stats more than the ones in the DRF. The biggest advantage of TG's is searching for the 'hidden horse'. The runner that is just as fast on the TG's, but doesn't look good enough on the PP's. I mainly buy the TG when Im stuck on a race of evenly matched horses, that you know if you can solve the puzzle you will be rewarded.
|
|
#6
12-25-2008, 08:39 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Call me up bro. I've toyed with these for a few years now and have at least a working knowledge of their figs and a some understanding of what they look for. This really is a great promo if you take the time to handicap then review the results whether you bet or not.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
|
|
#8
12-25-2008, 10:33 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
a - before a number designates a turf race not sure I've ever seen a -- or dot square triangle form yes but not sheets. Finger Lakes numbers are inflated (lower than they should be) only IMO.
__________________
“To compel a man to furnish funds for the propagation of ideas he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson
|
|
#9
12-25-2008, 10:37 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
the '-' sign before the number means it was a turf race. Triangle next to track name= trainer change four diamond next to number means synethic track Squares = insufficient data to make number (if in number area) Diamond next to track name = med change (Lasix or bute) Dot = I think means equipment change The symbol sheet isn't working on their site, but I use it all the time because I never remember.
|
|
#10
12-25-2008, 10:47 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Thanks, found the symbols in the race of the week section.
Docs 1st post says TG likes Collooney County in Aq 4th tomorrow. I'm looking at CC and don't see anything that tells me TG likes him. What am I missing?
|
|
#11
12-25-2008, 10:59 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
here is how I would look at the race when incorporating sheets
Brother Gold: Circled back to his 'top' (14) off four days rest, pair of the 14 or slight regression most likely Tony the Terio: 14's routing (see this by the 'bolding' of the number), nothing positive about this one Collooney County: Has the 14.5 two back but the last two were dreadful Hidden Price: Has a couple siblings to run around the '10' number (note the Breeding info on the full sheet version) but also had some slow siblings, might be usuable based on that fact alone, in a bad race. Big Megilla: No idea who Sydney Dutrow is but obviously someone related to Dicky. See the horse as slow unless Sydney has better stuff then Dicky Saratogian: Slow Doctor Problum: Slow Wanna Winna: Has 14's to go back to, Hernandez's number route to sprint are decent Roadhouse Rock: Another with siblings that were in the '10' area, which would destroy this field, usuable on that fact alone Living Out a Dream: Has the best number within the race, a pair wins, and a slight regression still wins This isn't a very powerful sheet race in terms of information. Give me a couple minutes and I will write up the Sir Beaugamt at Santa Anita, which has some real powerful sheet plays in there, IMO
|
|
#13
12-26-2008, 05:46 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
In the world of handicapping using Thoro-Graph, Collooney County sticks out as an include in the 4th because he is sporting very close to the notorious "0-2-X" pattern. 0-2-X is a pattern read originally noted by TG's Julian Weinberg 20 years ago that suggests that a horse that runs a big isolated top (like a "0"), regularly regresses to a slight off performance in their next start (like a "2"), before falling apart in the third start of the cycle (an "X", perhaps a a number like a "12" or "15"). These horses then typically will come back to the original performance level with some rest. Because the horse in question, like a Collooney County, looks like he's a bum going in the wrong direction, these runners are frequently outrageously good bets and are the scores that I watch Jerry Brown, Alan Benewitz, Weinbrg and Bill Spillane regularly cash at Saratoga at the Carolina Barbecue each summer. Collooney County ran a 14.5 in the 10/2 Belmont sprint off the layoff (our "0"), followed by the 17.25 on 11/6 in the Belmont turf route (our "2"), followed by the 24.5 in the 11/23 Aqueduct sprint (our "X"). If worried about fitness, he had a slow 5f work 12/6, just 13 days after his last race, and then a fast half mile blow 10 days later. Looks OK... And on top of everything else, he's the only runner here dropping from MSW company to a low maiden claiming price... only the game's most potent dropdown. The 14.5 makes Collooney County as fast as anyone in the race except Living Out a Dream (top of 11.75 last out). If he snaps back in classic 0-2-X fashion returning to around the 14, he can hit the board and juice the exotics. If the other, more obvious players faulter, he has a modest shot to win with that level of effort, (and an even better shot to win with a new 'top'). He's not a certainty to win or even hit the board, but as a potential $20-$30 mutuel, he is an ideal and significant representation of the kind of horse/situation/pattern that is a wagering opportunity presented when using TG. G/L today!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
|
Hybrid Mode
