12/26: AQU $159k C/O Contest/Discussion

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Some early AQU thoughts..

4th is pretty well devoid of speed.. Is that enough to give blinker-added 2nd choice Big Megilla (Chip Dutrow) the edge over 5-2 Living Out a Dream? 6-1 Tony the Terio looks like he can go a bit too, and 12-1 Collooney County is worth considering on the considerable drop from state-bred MSW to $25k Empire platers.

5th is NY's lowest claiming level and I'm notoriously bad with these. Single candidate Kamboo Man will be favored and is the likeliest winner, but several others have run races recently enough that can upset here including AE Otis of Atlantis, Lost Going Home, Methodtomymadness, Smokin Warrior. And then of course there is Vicarino in here, Gr. III-placed in March, the former Gilchrist burner, who under Contessa's tutelage, continues to drop like a piece of the Soyuz Space Station.

6th are $16k maidens with Ribaudo's 6-1 Knock Around Guy interesting to me off a pattern that can produce snap-back performances. And note the bullet a week ago. Major players are the 3 top choices Chauvinist, 5-2, but a lawn -looking thing; 7-2 Birthday Balloonz who moves to Levine (32%-$2.52 first time with acquirees) and takes a huge drop (50%-$4.17 MSW to MDN CLM); and Moment Sensor, 2nd time out, first for Bruce Brown (22%-$2.36), towing hot works and not exposed as hopeless yet..

Thoughts??

7th-9th later or tomorrow morning...

I'll take a crack at this:

4th: Tony the Terrio ran a pretty good race 2 back, showing speed going longer, the freshening should help. Have to respect the most recent race of Living Out a Dream.

5th: This race is a crap shoot, but the 2 I'm looking at are Kamboo Man, whose last 7 races have been very solid, and Lost Going Home, who has run competitive races, and gets a bit of a freshening also.

6th: I'm not exactly certain what you see in Knock Around Guy. The two obvious ones, Chauvanist and Moment Sensor (trainer change to Brown, off poorly in debut) seem the most likely. I don't see much in Levine's Birthday Baloonzz.

[docicu3]

You could spend 4 grand on this sequence and not hit it unfortunately..