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#1
11-25-2008, 12:32 PM
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The chart does indicate that the ride was rushed. This is precisely why I'm pushing for more exact charts (in a good number of cases, the race watching process would be significantly reduced).
Moreover, they 'wiped out' the field, as the rest were retreating significantly from the turn. I can view this one of two ways: 1) the top 2 (especially the 2nd finisher) were much better than the field and will run big next out 2) they got a good setup (pace and dynamics) and would get run down in a fair race Last edited by the_fat_man : 11-25-2008 at 12:47 PM. 
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#2
11-25-2008, 05:20 PM
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I think this is a case where seeing the race has a decided advantage, Montalvo moved his horse much too early, had a decided edge with less than a furlong to go and was caught while looking very much like the winner. The running line will not indicate any subtle trouble, we can be sure of that. Saying that it's really hard to get excited about playing a 10K race where horses run so inconsistently. I would play him if he is 2.5:1 in his next but this is not going to be a horse I am going to be waiting with anticipation playing in a week or 2. There are so many questionable rides these days in races without the obvious trouble lines that making notes can pay off. You won't have to wait weeks.
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#3
11-25-2008, 05:35 PM
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The graph of the race chart shows the impatient ride. And that's why, once again, it's very important for EQUIBASE to get their charts accurate (once and for all) as it takes too much time to watch many races over many tracks. The only way anyone is playing a single circuit these days is if they're getting paid to handicap that circuit. (I'd certainly give up the game if my action was restricted to NYRA, for example.)
I realize that it's the ultimate in machismo to take down carryover exotics but the way to actually beat the races, in my opinion, is to bet ONLY when you have an advantage (not, once again, when there's a huge pot waiting if you can wade your way through races you normally wouldn't play). So, the more races/tracks one can cover, the more of an advantage one has. The key point is that there are many, many EXCELLENT plays daily; the problem is having the time to find them all. This is something I'm slowly but steadily working towards.
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