How does one approach this?

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Not so sure. I hate this BC from a fan perspective but from a wagering perspective I think there is a lot of opportunity. The dirt horses will all be overbet. A horse like Ventura will beat Indian Blessing at 2-4 times the odds. Carriage Trail will beat Ginger Punch, Music Note, and Cocoa Beach at longer odds. Lot of money to be won betting against the dirt horses that show no reason to like synthetics.

I think Cocoa Beach is showing that she likes the Pro RIde

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by hrfan

I think Cocoa Beach is showing that she likes the Pro RIde

She supposedly had a nice work and is a factor underneath but we already know that both Carriage Trail and Zenyatta are much better on synthetics than she was on dirt so tough to see her moving up to do better than third.

[ateamstupid]

Zaftig is running in the F&M Sprint? If so, that's a ballsy spot off the injuries.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I thought it was a pretty ambitious spot myself. She must be doing well if they are shipping cross country to run on a surface she's never tried. I thought she was as good as any 3 year old filly I saw this year on dirt. I can't go near her in this race though she is bred well for the grass which might help.

JMO, but I think the "grass breeding = synthetic success" argument is wildly overplayed.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Agreed. It doesn't equal success. But, when it's a guess if they will handle the synthetics, like a lot of the NY based horses are this time around. I would prefer to see some turf breeding.

I treat it as a third surface, somewhere in between dirt and turf, so I don't really take breeding into account. That, of course, makes it difficult to bet synthetic races, which is why I generally stay away unless the runners have experience over the track.

[Bobby Fischer]

you don't want a really weak speed horse that is going to quit with the least bit of difficulty , but this ain't Keeneland. It isn't exactly two turf courses...
Keeneland's main track may actually be harder on route speed than it's turf course. I don't know that speed is a death sentence here.

I think you have to get on calracing and watch the allowance races at the distances, and you have to pay close mind to the surface this weekend.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Agreed. It doesn't equal success. But, when it's a guess if they will handle the synthetics, like a lot of the NY based horses are this time around. I would prefer to see some turf breeding.

This surface is playing completely different than the synthetics we've all come to hate.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

She supposedly had a nice work and is a factor underneath but we already know that both Carriage Trail and Zenyatta are much better on synthetics than she was on dirt so tough to see her moving up to do better than third.

Carriage Trail likes keenland, that does not mean she will like Pro Ride. Correct ?