Betting Strategy

[infield_line]

suggested win bets on the long(er)shots you like, then an exacta with the favorite on top and the long(er) shots underneath... longshots are much more likely to run second than win, but if they run in you are sure to cover your exacta saver. I however, am much more likely to use a cold favorite as a single to try and leverage prices with a multi-race bet.

I/L

oh yes.... Dick Mitchell, a notorious and brilliant California handicapper shows pretty convincing using data from a large series of races that betting trifecta with a fav on top is a losing proposition.... just consistent underlays compared to the price of the ticket.

[dean smith]

If so many are recluctant to bet short favs, then how can any horse get to 1/5? For instance, if the ML is 2/1, then the odds start to fall to 1/1, then 4/5, and 3/5, etc., it stands to reason that a lot of people are betting on 4/5s -- thinking, "yep, this is the best way to wager my ten bucks." Are there that many cowboys out there just trying to cash win tickets?

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by dean smith

If so many are recluctant to bet short favs, then how can any horse get to 1/5? For instance, if the ML is 2/1, then the odds start to fall to 1/1, then 4/5, and 3/5, etc., it stands to reason that a lot of people are betting on 4/5s -- thinking, "yep, this is the best way to wager my ten bucks." Are there that many cowboys out there just trying to cash win tickets?

Two things come to mind. First, a lot of money will be from folks just out to cash tickets instead of taking calculated risks. Second, a lot of people will talk about how they never bet favorites but do it anyway. Nobody gets recognized for picking a 2-5 shot that everyone else had.