Tips/Thoughts on Breeders' Cup tickets this year?

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

What are these angles you are speaking of? Educate me...

daytona is a horse for the course and will be a huge price..
Shugs horse, is getting back to a firm turf, and is worth a play, at another huge price, Red Rocks, and the Sword Dancer winner are the 2 horses to beat.

[Linny]

The typical "elite" US turf horse is far below the best of the Euro's, year in and year out. Grand Couturier raced in Europe and was a "listed stakes" type there. Red Rocks (who could have dominated this season, if sound) was no better than a G3 horse there. When he ran with G1 horses in Europe (Manduro, Dylan Thomas, Duke of Marmalade, Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain) he was nowhere. In fact he was crushed by Dr. Dino who is not regarded as "elite" in Europe, even though he's won G1 in Europe and Asia. Now, RR does move up here because of Lasix (etc) he's still not in the league of those mentioned above.

GC also loves a soft turf course, the SA course will not likely suit him. Dancing Forever like hard turf but I don't see him having the clas of Soldier of Fortune. I'd consider Conduit from Sir Michael Stoute. He loves 12f and has handled "firmer" going in Europe. If he looks like a G2 horse, refer to the first paragraph of this post.

Originally Posted by Linny

The typical "elite" US turf horse is far below the best of the Euro's, year in and year out. Grand Couturier raced in Europe and was a "listed stakes" type there. Red Rocks (who could have dominated this season, if sound) was no better than a G3 horse there. When he ran with G1 horses in Europe (Manduro, Dylan Thomas, Duke of Marmalade, Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain) he was nowhere. In fact he was crushed by Dr. Dino who is not regarded as "elite" in Europe, even though he's won G1 in Europe and Asia. Now, RR does move up here because of Lasix (etc) he's still not in the league of those mentioned above.

GC also loves a soft turf course, the SA course will not likely suit him. Dancing Forever like hard turf but I don't see him having the clas of Soldier of Fortune. I'd consider Conduit from Sir Michael Stoute. He loves 12f and has handled "firmer" going in Europe. If he looks like a G2 horse, refer to the first paragraph of this post.

what league was Red Rocks in the first time he won this race ?
Also Europe's best are running in the Classic, correct ?

[Linny]

Originally Posted by hrfan

what league was Red Rocks in the first time he won this race ?
Also Europe's best are running in the Classic, correct ?

he beat the worst bunch to Euro's to ever run in the turf. Only Soldier of Fortune and Conduit are considered G1 there, and it might be a stretch to call Conduit G1, though he won the St Leger. Since Henry (miler) and Duke (maybe past his best) are in the Classic, the Turf is more wide open and RR does have a shot, IF Soldier and Conduit (and even Eagle Mtn) fail miserably. Also, RR has scratched from the Sword Dancer and didn't go in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (his intended prep) which is a concern. When was the last time Hennig won a G1, 12f grass race off a 3 1/2 mo. layoff.

Throat, you are right about GC. I was OK in Europe but he faced a pretty poor bunch (relatively speaking) in Rail Link and Red Rocks. Look at what RR did in his recent tries w/G1 Euro's in Europe. He like firm and Lasix, and the easier company here..

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Linny

he beat the worst bunch to Euro's to ever run in the turf. Only Soldier of Fortune and Conduit are considered G1 there, and it might be a stretch to call Conduit G1, though he won the St Leger. Since Henry (miler) and Duke (maybe past his best) are in the Classic, the Turf is more wide open and RR does have a shot, IF Soldier and Conduit (and even Eagle Mtn) fail miserably. Also, RR has scratched from the Sword Dancer and didn't go in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (his intended prep) which is a concern. When was the last time Hennig won a G1, 12f grass race off a 3 1/2 mo. layoff.

Throat, you are right about GC. I was OK in Europe but he faced a pretty poor bunch (relatively speaking) in Rail Link and Red Rocks. Look at what RR did in his recent tries w/G1 Euro's in Europe. He like firm and Lasix, and the easier company here..

Hurricane Run was in the BC against Red Rocks in 2006.

They weren't top Group 1 horses over there, but even their ranks have been pretty thin the last few years in the distance Group 1s, and both were at least marginally competitive.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Linny

The typical "elite" US turf horse is far below the best of the Euro's, year in and year out. Grand Couturier raced in Europe and was a "listed stakes" type there. Red Rocks (who could have dominated this season, if sound) was no better than a G3 horse there. When he ran with G1 horses in Europe (Manduro, Dylan Thomas, Duke of Marmalade, Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain) he was nowhere. In fact he was crushed by Dr. Dino who is not regarded as "elite" in Europe, even though he's won G1 in Europe and Asia. Now, RR does move up here because of Lasix (etc) he's still not in the league of those mentioned above.

GC also loves a soft turf course, the SA course will not likely suit him. Dancing Forever like hard turf but I don't see him having the clas of Soldier of Fortune. I'd consider Conduit from Sir Michael Stoute. He loves 12f and has handled "firmer" going in Europe. If he looks like a G2 horse, refer to the first paragraph of this post.

Red Rocks has displayed a preference for firm turf, which may help explain why he's struggled in Europe and ran well vs. Curlin here. . .

[blackthroatedwind]

You're exagerating. Grand Couturier raced in two Group races in Europe, he ran third, beaten a neck for all the money in a Group 2, and he ran in a Group 1, won by eventual Arc winner Rail Link, where he finished fourth and lost second ( to Red Rocks ) by a neck. He was better than a " listed " horse in Europe. He, like Red Rocks, may also have benefited from Lasix.

As for Red Rocks, he hasn't raced since mid July, was scratched out of the Sword Dancer, and was pretty absent from training from what I understand ( he was absent from the work tab for 45 days ). To me, his talent is irrelevent, and I wouldn't go anywhere near him.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're exagerating. Grand Couturier raced in two Group races in Europe, he ran third, beaten a neck for all the money in a Group 2, and he ran in a Group 1, won by eventual Arc winner Rail Link, where he finished fourth and lost second ( to Red Rocks ) by a neck. He was better than a " listed " horse in Europe. He, like Red Rocks, may also have benefited from Lasix.

As for Red Rocks, he hasn't raced since mid July, was scratched out of the Sword Dancer, and was pretty absent from training from what I understand ( he was absent from the work tab for 45 days ). To me, his talent is irrelevent, and I wouldn't go anywhere near him.

Do you like Grand Couturier ?

[Danzig]

i really wish i could remember where i saw the article about the 'euro turfers better than us tufers' thing being far from true. stats don't back it up at all. the top turf horses there run on very soft, very deep turf. not all horses like that, and come here to find firmer ground. and of course running on lasix helps as well. comparing their best turfers to our best could be the apples vs oranges type comparison-kind of like when you have curlin vs the top euros. how do you really decide who's better, since a top turf horse generally won't face a top dirt horse?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i really wish i could remember where i saw the article about the 'euro turfers better than us tufers' thing being far from true. stats don't back it up at all. the top turf horses there run on very soft, very deep turf. not all horses like that, and come here to find firmer ground. and of course running on lasix helps as well. comparing their best turfers to our best could be the apples vs oranges type comparison-kind of like when you have curlin vs the top euros. how do you really decide who's better, since a top turf horse generally won't face a top dirt horse?

I'd really like to see that article cause I think the stats do support that the Euro turfer are better than the US turfers even on firm ground.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i really wish i could remember where i saw the article about the 'euro turfers better than us tufers' thing being far from true. stats don't back it up at all. the top turf horses there run on very soft, very deep turf. not all horses like that, and come here to find firmer ground. and of course running on lasix helps as well. comparing their best turfers to our best could be the apples vs oranges type comparison-kind of like when you have curlin vs the top euros. how do you really decide who's better, since a top turf horse generally won't face a top dirt horse?

Miesque, High Chaparral, Fantastic Light, Theatrical, Kalanisi, Daylami, Pebbles, Lashkari, Pilsudski, Red Rocks, Shirocco, Barathea, Miss Alleged, Tikkanen, In the Wings, Ouija Board, Islington, Six Perfections, Banks Hill, Domedriver, Spinning World, Ridgewood Pearl and Last Tycoon, not to mention Rock of Gibraltar, Bago, Azamour, etc. would all like to see this article.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Miesque, High Chaparral, Fantastic Light, Theatrical, Kalanisi, Daylami, Pebbles, Lashkari, Pilsudski, Red Rocks, Shirocco, Barathea, Miss Alleged, Tikkanen, In the Wings, Ouija Board, Islington, Six Perfections, Banks Hill, Domedriver, Spinning World, Ridgewood Pearl and Last Tycoon, not to mention Rock of Gibraltar, Bago, Azamour, etc. would all like to see this article.

it wasn't just in reference to the bc, but all turf racing here.
hey, i didn't write the thing. but i do remember reading it.

[Danzig]

been searching, but haven't found that article yet...

but i did find one, in late october '06. it states that the euros as of then had won 12 of 22 bc turf races. that's one more than half. now, how is that domination? they are just ahead in the stats at that time, seems evenly split, not the domination i keep hearing about.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Danzig

been searching, but haven't found that article yet...

but i did find one, in late october '06. it states that the euros as of then had won 12 of 22 bc turf races. that's one more than half. now, how is that domination? they are just ahead in the stats at that time, seems evenly split, not the domination i keep hearing about.

Keep in mind, on average, I'd guess the BC Turf draws 4-5 Euros and 9-10 Americans, so being >50% is a definitive statistical advantage.
(I guess they're 13-24 now with Red Rocks and English Channel added now... although with the dead heat in '03 I think they'd have to count a win for both)

That being said, they rarely send their top stock. It always seems to be their 2nd tier group, this year no different.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by Danzig

been searching, but haven't found that article yet...

but i did find one, in late october '06. it states that the euros as of then had won 12 of 22 bc turf races. that's one more than half. now, how is that domination? they are just ahead in the stats at that time, seems evenly split, not the domination i keep hearing about.

Considering the ship, change in climate (when racing in SoCal, FLA) the fact that most Euro's are beyond their best races when they get here etc, I think it's a fine record. Also, while those listed above all ran well in BC races, several, Domedriver, Lashkari, Tikkanen and don't forget Arcangues were not considered the very best in Europe.
As for all Euro's liking soft going, it's a myth. Dylan Thomas was undone by the soft going at Mon. Remember, they almost scratched because he didn't like soft. Daylami did his best in Europe on firmer going and when Euro's go to the Mid-East and Asia they often get rock hard turf and still win. This myth is like the one that holds that all Euro's are routers. Guess what, they've been runing G1 sprints on grass in Europe for ages now! I just wish that some of their sprinters would come here for the BC. I'd have thought the SA course might have suited them, though most as used to to a straightaway sprint.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Miesque, High Chaparral, Fantastic Light, Theatrical, Kalanisi, Daylami, Pebbles, Lashkari, Pilsudski, Red Rocks, Shirocco, Barathea, Miss Alleged, Tikkanen, In the Wings, Ouija Board, Islington, Six Perfections, Banks Hill, Domedriver, Spinning World, Ridgewood Pearl and Last Tycoon, not to mention Rock of Gibraltar, Bago, Azamour, etc. would all like to see this article.

.......thats some list of horses......pilsudski set me free......

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i really wish i could remember where i saw the article about the 'euro turfers better than us tufers' thing being far from true. stats don't back it up at all. the top turf horses there run on very soft, very deep turf.

This is not entirely true. I was over there in Britain for a year (just returned in August) and there were some spells when the rain was scarce and the ground was pretty firm. As I recall, the entire Ascot meet was conducted on firm ground; horses were scratched because they didn't like 'to hear their feet rattle.'

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

This is not entirely true. I was over there in Britain for a year (just returned in August) and there were some spells when the rain was scarce and the ground was pretty firm. As I recall, the entire Ascot meet was conducted on firm ground; horses were scratched because they didn't like 'to hear their feet rattle.'

but don't they water the courses? i seem to remember reading that one group was ticked off because they felt that the course got watered too much, which benefitted the o'brien entry....
and yeah, they don't like it firm over there, which was my point that most over there like it deep-and send their firm loving horses here to find ground to suit them.