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#1
10-20-2008, 12:35 AM
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I agree with the masses here. Either pass the race or single in a horizontal bet.
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#2
10-20-2008, 05:32 AM
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Quote:
__________________
Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life's problems. -Homer Simpson
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#3
10-20-2008, 09:31 AM
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with 5 mins to post go get a beer and then sip it till they're in the gate. Go attempt to make the bet get shut out and then either count the $$$$ you saved or laugh at how little the exacta and tri paid.......
__________________
“To compel a man to furnish funds for the propagation of ideas he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson Last edited by dellinger63 : 10-20-2008 at 11:56 AM.
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#4
10-20-2008, 02:47 PM
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There is no absolute right or mechanical answer on how to play any situation. It's not any fun, but statistically some studies showed even money horses kicked out small profits when bet to show.
If you are trying to make an exacta, everyone else will key the 2/5 horse on top as well, so you really better have some compelling reason to play it with a real longshot- not the second or 3rd choice who you think is long at 8-1 simply because the favorite has 75% of the win pool. If I think I can beat that favorite, I may backwheel with a couple of reasonable choices. Same for trifectas. You are betting an underlay with the favorite on top and the second favorite on the board. You need to go to the 4th or 5th favorites to make it a fair proposition.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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#5
10-20-2008, 03:17 PM
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I'm confused.
As there are any number of ways for the BEST HORSE to LOSE a race, and given all the other interesting aspects of the game, why is strategy for a < even money proposition something to discuss? A long time ago, a, then young, racetrack friend of mine coined the phrase "bet the CHALK and you get BUSTED". How true it is. My suggestion: instead of worrying about this crap, head over to the Trips and Traps Archive and learn something worth while.
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#6
10-20-2008, 03:20 PM
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There's no reason to bet a race unless you have a perceived edge over your competition. You could, for example, agree with the public that the 2/5 favorite has a 40% chance of winning, but not like the next few choices and prefer a longer shot to second. From your perspective, an exacta with the chalk over your longshot(s) would be a good play. If you don't have any insightful or contrarian opinion in a given race - skip it. Unless you're just playing for action. . .
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#7
10-20-2008, 06:15 PM
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Mark Cramer/Dick Mitchell
suggested win bets on the long(er)shots you like, then an exacta with the favorite on top and the long(er) shots underneath... longshots are much more likely to run second than win, but if they run in you are sure to cover your exacta saver. I however, am much more likely to use a cold favorite as a single to try and leverage prices with a multi-race bet.
I/L oh yes.... Dick Mitchell, a notorious and brilliant California handicapper shows pretty convincing using data from a large series of races that betting trifecta with a fav on top is a losing proposition.... just consistent underlays compared to the price of the ticket.
__________________
"I got a home equity loan....every year I throw a big party and stick the house with the bill!" Homer Simpson
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#8
10-20-2008, 08:43 PM
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If so many are recluctant to bet short favs, then how can any horse get to 1/5? For instance, if the ML is 2/1, then the odds start to fall to 1/1, then 4/5, and 3/5, etc., it stands to reason that a lot of people are betting on 4/5s -- thinking, "yep, this is the best way to wager my ten bucks." Are there that many cowboys out there just trying to cash win tickets?
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