Betting Strategy

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by dean smith

I'm not as seasoned a handicapper as a lot of you guys, so try and pass a little of that knowledge my way, please.

My question is this: Is there a rule, or a textbook betting strategy for betting an 8-10 horse field with a 2/5-type favorite, 2 or 3 "contenders" at 7 or 8/1, and then the rest at 20 and 30/1?

Assuming I also agree with the public that the 2/5 favorite is the probable easy winner, it would seem to a rookie handicapper like me that betting the favorite to win is out of the question (too much risk for little reward), therefore my only options are to bet exotics with the fav on top and attempt to score with the $12 exacta and $20 trifecta payoffs, or I can try and find some reason one or a few bigger-odds horses can shock the world and try and beat the favorite and score with the $30 win payoff.

What's the right answer here -- or at least the right play in this situation?

Why not just skip the race?

[cowgirlintexas]

I usually put the favorite on top with perhaps the second favorite as the top two in a trifecta then use them in second as well with one more horse to make three. In the third spot I will take the last one I used in the second spot and add two more..
Did any of that make any sence?

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by cowgirlintexas

I usually put the favorite on top with perhaps the second favorite as the top two in a trifecta then use them in second as well with one more horse to make three. In the third spot I will take the last one I used in the second spot and add two more..
Did any of that make any sence?

with 2/5 on top?

pick 3, single the fav. if you like the fav. and go deep around him, or play the pick 3 for more money.

[miraja2]

In the example you used here the horse in 2/5, so I agree that a win bet is probably not a smart bet. However, I will say that I think some people are overly eager to rule out ever betting on an odds-on horse. Sometimes, you can actually find value in these horses.
If you see a horse that looks like a 1/5 shot to you, and the horse is 4/5 on the board, why not bet it to win?

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by miraja2

In the example you used here the horse in 2/5, so I agree that a win bet is probably not a smart bet. However, I will say that I think some people are overly eager to rule out ever betting on an odds-on horse. Sometimes, you can actually find value in these horses.
If you see a horse that looks like a 1/5 shot to you, and the horse is 4/5 on the board, why not bet it to win?

I have no problem with this rationale.

Heck, in a short field in the right circumstances, i think bridgejumping is a good bet.

In this example he gave a 2/5 likely winner in an 8-10 horse field. Unless you can find something underneath at a price, I would just skip the race.

[Bobby Fischer]

[cowgirlintexas]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

with 2/5 on top?

In a tri yes..The whole point is not only trying to stay in the black, but to have all runners in the right order correct???

I mean you can have a 2/5 win and still put a couple longshots underneath and make more than $12.00. I mean the odds are that the 2/5 will more than likely win the race, so of course you can "hope" that he comes in second by placing another on with him/her as well in the top spot.