Watched Flower Alley work this morning

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm sorry, but this theory doesn't make any sense. The Travers will be run THIS WEEKEND. Chances are, Albertrani will still be in a slump then. What does it matter if he won at a 20% clip a few months ago? This month, at this meet, he is ice cold.

I just think of it like fantasy baseball. If Jeter, for example, cools down for a while and isn't hitting with the same average that he has been all season, I'll sit him. I don't care if he's been hitting .340 up until now, if he's hitting .250 in August, he's on the bench with all the other cold players. But if A-Rod starts heating up, I don't care is his average has been in the mid-2's all season, he's hitting well now and that's what matters. Races don't take place over the course of the year, they take place over the course of a few minutes. And in those few minutes, Albertrani will still be cold.

The original argument wasn't about whether he is cold right now. Oracle's original argument was that the fact that Albertrani is not doing well at Saratoga proves that he's not a good trainer. My point was that his record for the year is more indicative of his abilty than his record for the month.

[hockey2315]

O sorry. . . I thought it had more to do with the Travers and that Mike was saying that since Albertrani's cold and Pletcher's hot (as always), his horse might have a better shot this weekend. Guess I should've read a little closer. . .

[Gander]

I think what Mike was saying was that it isnt a bad time to take a shot against a very heavy favorite in Bernardini, who is trained by a guy who has only won 1 race this whole meet, a walkover which shouldnt even count as a win. Considering his opposition comes into this off a thrashing of a pretty good Haskell field trained by a guy who doesnt know what a slump is.
Thats all. In my opinion BGC will be overbet this weekend.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

O sorry. . . I thought it had more to do with the Travers and that Mike was saying that since Albertrani's cold and Pletcher's hot (as always), his horse might have a better shot this weekend. Guess I should've read a little closer. . .

By the way, I think that when an athlete is in a slump it is very significant. I would not feel very confident in an athelte who has been in a slump for a month.

But with a trainer, I'm not sure how significant a 1 for 16 slump is. A 20% trainer would only win 3 times out of 15 in the long-run. It's not really a big deal if a trainer is 1 for 16. that's only two less wins than he would normally have. He could easily win a few races the next week and be right back on track. With an athlete, there may be a good reason as to why they're in a slump. Their stroke may be a little bit off or whatever. With Albertrani, I doubt he is doing anything different than normal. It's probably just a fluke.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

By the way, I think that when an athlete is in a slump it is very significant. I would not feel very confident in an athelte who has been in a slump for a month.

But with a trainer, I'm not sure how significant a 1 for 16 slump is. A 20% trainer would only win 3 times out of 15 in the long-run. It's not really a big deal if a trainer is 1 for 16. that's only two less wins than he would normally have. He could easily win a few races the next week and be right back on track. With an athlete, there may be a good reason as to why they're in a slump. Their stroke may be a little bit off or whatever. With Albertrani, I doubt he is doing anything different than normal. It's probably just a fluke.

hes 1-18 once again Rupert.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

By the way, I think that when an athlete is in a slump it is very significant. I would not feel very confident in an athelte who has been in a slump for a month.

But with a trainer, I'm not sure how significant a 1 for 16 slump is. A 20% trainer would only win 3 times out of 15 in the long-run. It's not really a big deal if a trainer is 1 for 16. that's only two less wins than he would normally have. He could easily win a few races the next week and be right back on track. With an athlete, there may be a good reason as to why they're in a slump. Their stroke may be a little bit off or whatever. With Albertrani, I doubt he is doing anything different than normal. It's probably just a fluke.

But he's 1-18 at the biggest meet of the year with Darley horses. A great trainer like Pletcher has his horses (usually) geared up at the top of their game at Saratoga. You could argue that he's going up against tougher competition at Saratoga, but with the amount of talent at his disposal 1-18 just doesn't cut it.

Some of these trainer statistics are also skewed because the owner, not the trainer, wants his horse in a race he should not be in. You know this happens in races other than the Kentucky Derby.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

But he's 1-18 at the biggest meet of the year with Darley horses. A great trainer like Pletcher has his horses (usually) geared up at the top of their game at Saratoga. You could argue that he's going up against tougher competition at Saratoga, but with the amount of talent at his disposal 1-18 just doesn't cut it.

There's a lot of luck involved in the short run. He has a bunch of 2nd place finishes. If just two of his horses that finished 2nd would have won, we wouldn't even be having this conversation.

You guys may think it's really significant that he's 1 for 18. I really don't think it is.

Johnny V is only winnning at a 13% clip. I don't think that's a big deal. I never rely on short-term results to form conclusions.

Bobby Frankel is only about 3 for 63 in Breeder's Cup races. That's a terrible record. I have a friend who actually thinks that this could be significant with Frankel. You know there is a ton of security at the BC and all the horses are guarded for 24 hours. My friend thinks that the added security is the reason why Frankel has done so poorly. I guess no trainer is above suspicion. I persoanlly think Frankel has probably just had bad luck and that things will turn for him eventually in BC races.

[hockey2315]

I don't consider a month to be that short term. If you take a random set of 18 races for Pletcher horses I doubt he's gone 1-18 many times if ever in the last however many years. The job of a trainer is to spot their horses for the right race and train them for their best effort on that day. Since Albertrani trains fewer horses than Pletcher, he should have his horses even better prepared and better spotted for those 18 starts than Pletcher for how ever many starts he's had this meet.

[hockey2315]

O by the way- JV is winning at 16%- not 13- which is a fairly significant difference when you consider how many races the jocks are in. He's fourth at the meet in win percentage which isn't too bad when you consider all the great jocks there. Where do you get your stats?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I don't consider a month to be that short term. If you take a random set of 18 races for Pletcher horses I doubt he's gone 1-18 many times if ever in the last however many years. The job of a trainer is to spot their horses for the right race and train them for their best effort on that day. Since Albertrani trains fewer horses than Pletcher, he should have his horses even better prepared and better spotted for those 18 starts than Pletcher for how ever many starts he's had this meet.

Pletcher wins at a higher clip than Albertrani. Pletcher is winnig at a 28% clip this year. I agree that he would be less likely to go 1 for 18 than Albertrani who is a 20% winner.

A trainer who wins at a 20% clip is doing very well. That's a very good win percentage. You have to remember that if a guy is a 20% trainer, he will have some lucky streaks where he may win 7 races out of 20. But if he wins 7 out of 20 sometimes, that means that other times he will go 1 for 20. If you went 7 for 20 and then 1 for 20, you would be 8 for 40 which is 20%.

By the way, how do you explain Frankel being 3 for 63 in Breeder's Cup races. He's obviously trying his hardest in these races. Does it mean that he's not that good of a trainer? I don't think so.