curlin is going down

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

1 hes looked weaker and weaker as he faced foes,,
2 the slop/mud will be taxing on him
3 mombo and some others are at the peak of their form
4 the pace should make him commit to a presser role.
5 wandring boy sets him up / merchant marine /mambo/ timber resurve take m down.............imo.........

1. His last wasn't spectacular but it still beats this field unless Wanderin Boy gets totally loose ( possible ) and speed is absolutely deadly.

2. Makes no sense....the best race he ever ran was in the slop and it's far from clear it will be sloppy or muddy.

3. Mambo has to improve dramatically to beat Curlin unless Curlin doesn't show up.

4. I guess it's possible but he will be ridden confidently, as he should be, and only a slop induced speed bias will beat him....not his riding tactics per se.

5. I don't get what you're trying to say.

I don't have the ultimate confidence in Curlin, though he's a fairly likely winner, but he's still 40% to lose ( he's around 1:2 here ) so saying he will lose is hardly going out on a limb. The question is how will you make money on the race with an anti-Curlin opinion and in my opinion there are better places, and ways, to try to make money both tomorrow and any day.