Whitney Day Stakes

[zippyneedsawin]

Any hope this card stays fairly intact and doesn't get destroyed by weather?

[Bobby Fischer]

i notice they have 8,10&11 entries for Grade1s!

Is NYRA sure they can handle the logistics nightmare? THis is way more than 4 horses entered, there could be quite a bit of money in the pools offering good betting races. Is this something we are prepared for?

[King Glorious]

I think this Whitney field might actually be the best field in this division this year East of the Mississippi. Not saying it's a particularly great field but deepest of anything they've had this year and although not great, not too bad. At least it's interesting. How will Commentator do in his return to routing? I think this is a better game for him than sprints are. Was Notional's return to dirt really the key to his return to showing the potential he showed early in his career? Student Council, for all the ribbing he takes (and a lot comes from me), is still among the better horses in his division. Whether that is a result of the pathetic state of the division or not is irrelevant really. He's still among the best in it. Grasshopper is not too far off of that either. Timber Reserve is one that I had high hopes for following the Penn Derby and I haven't given up on him yet. So for me, the race is at least interesting which is much more than I can say about any other race in the division this year. I'm looking for a Commentator/Notional exacta.

[SentToStud]

I like Notional a lot in the Whitney. Aside from the runnerup, he didn't beat much in NJ but I think Gotcha Gold is a very decent miler and Notional had him beat after 5 furlongs. Notional's questionable at 9F but he's run well on dirt everywhere and I think he's going to get a very good trip.

Got to play against Commentator at 3/2 or so going 9F, I do not think much of Grasshopper and less of AP Arrow, both of which should take more than what I think is their fair share of betting.

If Student Council, Rising Moon or Solar Flare beat me and I don't run 2nd to one of them, I'll be ripping them.

Notional at 5-1+.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I like Notional a lot in the Whitney. Aside from the runnerup, he didn't beat much in NJ but I think Gotcha Gold is a very decent miler and Notional had him beat after 5 furlongs. Notional's questionable at 9F but he's run well on dirt everywhere and I think he's going to get a very good trip.

Got to play against Commentator at 3/2 or so going 9F, I do not think much of Grasshopper and less of AP Arrow, both of which should take more than what I think is their fair share of betting.

If Student Council, Rising Moon or Solar Flare beat me and I don't run 2nd to one of them, I'll be ripping them.

Notional at 5-1+.

One question that I always wonder of people is what I'll ask you here. I can understand you playing against Commentator wagering wise because of his odds but what if he was 20/1? Would you play him then? The wagering position is one thing but what do you actually think of his chances of winning the race?

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

One question that I always wonder of people is what I'll ask you here. I can understand you playing against Commentator wagering wise because of his odds but what if he was 20/1? Would you play him then? The wagering position is one thing but what do you actually think of his chances of winning the race?

If Commentator was 20-1 in here, I'd bet every dollar I could afford to bet on him to win.

He's obviously an exciting, fast horse but he's got his share of physical problems and he hasn't won going 2-turns or over a mile in three years. So, I will bet against every horse I see that fits this profile, especially at a short number.

And while he ran great in the Met, if the race had been an eighth longer, he quite possible have got beaten for 2nd by Lord Snowden.

To me, I'll bet the race because it has two horses I feel strongly about. Notional, who I expect a big race out of and Commentator, who I think is likely not to run 1-2. To me, the real money in the race is in the exacta.

I would place Commentator's chances of running 1-2 in here at about 40% and his chance of winning at about 25%.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

If Commentator was 20-1 in here, I'd bet every dollar I could afford to bet on him to win.

He's obviously an exciting, fast horse but he's got his share of physical problems and he hasn't won going 2-turns or over a mile in three years. So, I will bet against every horse I see that fits this profile, especially at a short number.

And while he ran great in the Met, if the race had been an eighth longer, he quite possible have got beaten for 2nd by Lord Snowden.

To me, I'll bet the race because it has two horses I feel strongly about. Notional, who I expect a big race out of and Commentator, who I think is likely not to run 1-2. To me, the real money in the race is in the exacta.

I would place Commentator's chances of running 1-2 in here at about 40% and his chance of winning at about 25%.

How many such races has he ran? Was that by design, because they wanted to keep him in shorter races......or by necessity, because they didn't think they could keep him together long enough to finish such a race? I think it was the former. When last seen trying this game, he was beaten in a tag team effort by Dutrow but right before that, he'd beaten the future HOY St. Liam.

I'll agree with you that depending on the odds, he may be a play against horse but forgetting about the odds and picking the horse that I think is most likely to win the race, I think he's the one that fits that bill.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

How many such races has he ran? Was that by design, because they wanted to keep him in shorter races......or by necessity, because they didn't think they could keep him together long enough to finish such a race? I think it was the former. When last seen trying this game, he was beaten in a tag team effort by Dutrow but right before that, he'd beaten the future HOY St. Liam.

I'll agree with you that depending on the odds, he may be a play against horse but forgetting about the odds and picking the horse that I think is most likely to win the race, I think he's the one that fits that bill.

Tasteyville becomes the key to this race. If the connections of Tasteyville decide to send him, it will be suicide for both him and commentator. If they decide to rate, i think commentator gets home.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

How many such races has he ran? Was that by design, because they wanted to keep him in shorter races......or by necessity, because they didn't think they could keep him together long enough to finish such a race? I think it was the former. When last seen trying this game, he was beaten in a tag team effort by Dutrow but right before that, he'd beaten the future HOY St. Liam.

I'll agree with you that depending on the odds, he may be a play against horse but forgetting about the odds and picking the horse that I think is most likely to win the race, I think he's the one that fits that bill.

Well of course he's run 9F three times. And the three Dutrow horses beat him there. His race against St Liam was phenomenal as well. But how can you bring those two up without mentioning his very poor race in the '05 Bob's Hope when he went 2 turns off a 5 win sprint streak?

I don't know why they haven't run him long either. But at such a short price, I can't just assume it is for good reasons. Also, I don't disagree with what you wrote. But he hasn't tried long in 3 years and he may well have gotten beat by Lord Snowden if either the Met was a bit longer or if Lord Snowden had gotten a bit softer trip. I can't get away from those two factors.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

If Commentator was 20-1 in here, I'd bet every dollar I could afford to bet on him to win.

He's obviously an exciting, fast horse but he's got his share of physical problems and he hasn't won going 2-turns or over a mile in three years. So, I will bet against every horse I see that fits this profile, especially at a short number.

And while he ran great in the Met, if the race had been an eighth longer, he quite possible have got beaten for 2nd by Lord Snowden.

To me, I'll bet the race because it has two horses I feel strongly about. Notional, who I expect a big race out of and Commentator, who I think is likely not to run 1-2. To me, the real money in the race is in the exacta.

I would place Commentator's chances of running 1-2 in here at about 40% and his chance of winning at about 25%.

(emphasis added)

Very sharp stuff, STS.

--Dunbar

[Gander]

This kind of reminds me of last year's race. A big field, no huge standout like a Curlin or Invasor. And what happened? One of the luke warm favorites (Lawyer Ron) set a track record and went off at a juicy 5/1. Commentator will be much lower than that, probably 8/5, but you spend all this time trying to come up with a clever alternative and watch, he'll win by the length of the stretch.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

If Commentator was 20-1 in here, I'd bet every dollar I could afford to bet on him to win.

He's obviously an exciting, fast horse but he's got his share of physical problems and he hasn't won going 2-turns or over a mile in three years. So, I will bet against every horse I see that fits this profile, especially at a short number.

And while he ran great in the Met, if the race had been an eighth longer, he quite possible have got beaten for 2nd by Lord Snowden.

To me, I'll bet the race because it has two horses I feel strongly about. Notional, who I expect a big race out of and Commentator, who I think is likely not to run 1-2. To me, the real money in the race is in the exacta.

I would place Commentator's chances of running 1-2 in here at about 40% and his chance of winning at about 25%.

I'm curious how you played it. I thought this post made great sense, but half the rational was based on the assumption that Commentator would be overbet. With your estimate of a 25% to win, Commentator was well underbet. Were you tempted to switch gears and bet him? Or to simply pass on the race?

--Dunbar

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm curious how you played it. I thought this post made great sense, but half the rational was based on the assumption that Commentator would be overbet. With your estimate of a 25% to win, Commentator was well underbet. Were you tempted to switch gears and bet him? Or to simply pass on the race?

--Dunbar

I was surprised he was that long but I pretty much stayed with my play.
I swapped out using Solar Flare and used Commentator with Notional. Aside from doing that, the only other things I did right was figuring Notional would be about 6-1 and I pressed my exbox with Student Council a bit based on the track condition. I was wrong about the pace, set up and my horse's trip.

Still, great to see Commentator win. Winning Grade 1's thee years apart really remarkable.