Calder All Stakes Pick 4

[hockey2315]

Anyone else see how Mistical Plan's odds dropped from 10-1 to 8-1 about halfway through the race with almost $300K in the pool?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Anyone else see how Mistical Plan's odds dropped from 10-1 to 8-1 about halfway through the race with almost $300K in the pool?

It wasn't halfway through the race. It was early on in the race.

As has been explained numerous times here, most existing video graphics packages used by tracks cannot reflect final odds until you get the first change in the running order AFTER the final 10 second post-start odds "force".

From the piece I wrote on this topic:

http://www.derbytrail.com/writings/display.php?ID=36

(TRPB's Curtis) Linnell's office presented a report in September (2007) at the annual International Simulcast Conference in Kansas City that demonstrates the quirkiness of late-changing odds based on the TRPB's monitoring of pool accumulation in the minutes before the bell at this year's Del Mar meet. Only 73% of pools are generally accounted for with 1 minute to post, and an estimated 7% of handle is generated within seconds of the gates opening. Current systems cycle wagers every 45 seconds and add a forced cycle of the odds 10 seconds after the bell. Those elements conspire to give the appearence of large amounts of accrual coming in AFTER the gates open when patrons see odds change between the time the first and second flashes occur with races underway.

[Bigsmc]

I quit losing sleep over the ADW situation, but is there actually an ADW that takes Calder these days?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I quit losing sleep over the ADW situation, but is there actually an ADW that takes Calder these days?

no

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Scav

no

Excellent!!

Thanks

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Kasept

It wasn't halfway through the race. It was early on in the race.

As has been explained numerous times here, most existing video graphics packages used by tracks cannot reflect final odds until you get the first change in the running order AFTER the final 10 second post-start odds "force".

From the piece I wrote on this topic:

http://www.derbytrail.com/writings/display.php?ID=36

(TRPB's Curtis) Linnell's office presented a report in September (2007) at the annual International Simulcast Conference in Kansas City that demonstrates the quirkiness of late-changing odds based on the TRPB's monitoring of pool accumulation in the minutes before the bell at this year's Del Mar meet. Only 73% of pools are generally accounted for with 1 minute to post, and an estimated 7% of handle is generated within seconds of the gates opening. Current systems cycle wagers every 45 seconds and add a forced cycle of the odds 10 seconds after the bell. Those elements conspire to give the appearence of large amounts of accrual coming in AFTER the gates open when patrons see odds change between the time the first and second flashes occur with races underway.

I know about all that, Steve. It happened right around when the first quarter time was posted, though. If it was just the nature of the system then the system needs to be changed (obviously). Just thought it was a little funny that a horse dropped 2 points after looking very good early.

[Kasept]

They (Wagering Protocol Working Group) are trying to end this scenario with an early forced 'flush' before the bell and more frequent odds updates leading up to the start. But again, its also an issue created by the TV graphics systems, and that needs to be addressed.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Anyone else see how Mistical Plan's odds dropped from 10-1 to 8-1 about halfway through the race with almost $300K in the pool?

Didn't Indian Chant drop substantially during his race and Benny the Bull's odds go from 3:5 to 6:5 during the running of the same race?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Didn't Indian Chant drop substantially during his race and Benny the Bull's odds go from 3:5 to 6:5 during the running of the same race?

I don't know - I just noticed it in the Princess Rooney because Mistical Plan's number was on the screen early. . . Benny's wasn't. I'm not really alleging anything - just found it a little interesting.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Didn't Indian Chant drop substantially during his race and Benny the Bull's odds go from 3:5 to 6:5 during the running of the same race?

Yes, I wasn't watching all that closely, but I saw the same thing. Was very surprised at 6:5 when I thought he had been much lower than that.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Didn't Indian Chant drop substantially during his race and Benny the Bull's odds go from 3:5 to 6:5 during the running of the same race?

From Steve Crist's blog - "And in the Smile, Benny the Bull was odds-on most of the way until massive late betting on Indian Chant (5th at 2.70-1) inflated the winner's price to $4.60."

I don't think what he's referring to was during the race - because that would be unknowable (right?). . .

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

From Steve Crist's blog - "And in the Smile, Benny the Bull was odds-on most of the way until massive late betting on Indian Chant (5th at 2.70-1) inflated the winner's price to $4.60."

I don't think what he's referring to was during the race - because that would be unknowable (right?). . .

Well, we talked about it, and I told him I saw him at 3:5 as they went to the gate.

[hockey2315]

Fair enough. T-minus 8 days, 14 hours, and 17 minutes.