Bridge jumper on Zenyatta

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

There are given scenarios where the horse is much better than 90%. Of course, this is subjective.

not really. The most you could even add in Theory is 10 percentage points.

In real life you just don't have enough information to assign a horse 100% hit rate. Not to mention the slew of things that can unexpectedly go wrong.

In real life a "lock" to show isn't going to be any higher than 95%


Even a 95% hit% is only a .9975 Value. Still a losing long-term investment.

You would be hard pressed to find a 95% hit rate for a show wager.


A bad investment / a tempting gamble

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

not really. The most you could even add in Theory is 10 percentage points.

In real life you just don't have enough information to assign a horse 100% hit rate. Not to mention the slew of things that can unexpectedly go wrong.

In real life a "lock" to show isn't going to be any higher than 95%


Even a 95% hit% is only a .9975 Value. Still a losing long-term investment.

You would be hard pressed to find a 95% hit rate for a show wager.


A bad investment / a tempting gamble

Worse than an investment in bear stearns? Or a CD at indymac?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Worse than an investment in bear stearns? Or a CD at indymac?

I am talking about investment in horseracing, not degenerate gamblers in the stock market.