Bridge jumper on Zenyatta

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by pgardn

This person put that bet up in the last minute.
So this person probably drastically changes the show pool size
which this person(s) would hopefully realized. So I guess they
are banking on some bad horses to come in along with their "winner"

But since the payout is the minimum, the other two horses in
the money most likely were horses that should have been at least close
to "in the money horses" as viewed by the public. Or they just did not
look at the show pool size before they bet.

I guess I see that as a perfectly horrible bet.
A less than 5% profit risking 200K... God help me.

I am a before the outcome is known kinda fella.
This betting entity had 200K; just pay Vito the grand for Christ sakes.

All fallacies in my reasoning appreciated...

I dont think anyone would accuse me of redboarding when i say that I predicted Zenyatta would at least come in third today. As a matter of fact, I predict she comes in no worse than third in any race she runs in this year. But, we are only discussing today's race so that doesnt matter.

One couldnt bet her to win at 1/9 (which is what she was until the last tick) because at that price you might as well bet to show.

Basically, with the field and race set up, you are betting against injury. That was all that was going to keep Zenyatta from finishing in the money today.

Is Bridge jumping a horrible bet? I think under the right circumstances, bridge jumping is a great way to make a profit.