Declan's Moon...Turf on Thursday

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

It doesn't help that his trainer is incompetent.

Why would you say that? He consistently has one of the highest win percentages of any trainer. Win percentage is certainly not the only metric to use when evaluating a trainer's ability, but I don't think there are too many incompetent trainers out there with really high win percentages.

Ellis' win percentages is slightly lower than normal this year, but that's only because he has an unusually high number of 2nd place finishes this year. He is at 17% this year. He has 15 wins from 90 starts but he has run second about 23 or 24 times. His win percentage was 29% in 2006 and it was 19% in 2007. He can't be too incompetent with numbers like that.

In addition, look at the way he moves horses up off the claim. He does it very consistently. The one I can think of most recently is the one that ran on Saturday. The horse's name is Quick Enough. He claimed that horse off Carla Gaines for $25,000 back in December. He got the horse to win a starter allowance race, then a $54,000 nwx1 state bred allowance race, and then a $52,000 nwx1 open allowance race. They paid $25,000 for the horse 6 months ago. He's already made $90,000 and his value has gone up by 3x. Those owners have made about 6x their money.

[Indian Charlie]

I've heard the man speak and the dude is frickin clueless.

I left socal five years ago and don't follow the circuit like I used to, but what I remember is that he clearly got very nice stock from his owners and constantly underachieved with them.

He kind of reminds me of Gary Jones (except that Jones had no concerns about a horse's welfare). Year in and year out they would get well bred and talented horses that always seemed to underachieve.

He also sort of fits the mold used to cast Alex Hassinger, Simon Bray and that former Lukas assistant that trained Artax. Granted, he's not as bad as they all were but he definitely underachieves with what he's received.

Do I even need to bring up the Declan's Moon aiming for the Malibu thing?

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Why would you say that? He consistently has one of the highest win percentages of any trainer. Win percentage is certainly not the only metric to use when evaluating a trainer's ability, but I don't think there are too many incompetent trainers out there with really high win percentages.

Ellis' win percentages is slightly lower than normal this year, but that's only because he has an unusually high number of 2nd place finishes this year. He is at 17% this year. He has 15 wins from 90 starts but he has run second about 23 or 24 times. His win percentage was 29% in 2006 and it was 19% in 2007. He can't be too incompetent with numbers like that.

In addition, look at the way he moves horses up off the claim. He does it very consistently. The one I can think of most recently is the one that ran on Saturday. The horse's name is Quick Enough. He claimed that horse off Carla Gaines for $25,000 back in December. He got the horse to win a starter allowance race, then a $54,000 nwx1 state bred allowance race, and then a $52,000 nwx1 open allowance race. They paid $25,000 for the horse 6 months ago. He's already made $90,000 and his value has gone up by 3x. Those owners have made about 6x their money.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Do I even need to bring up the Declan's Moon aiming for the Malibu thing?

Rupert insists that it was the reporters mistake and not RE's.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rupert insists that it was the reporters mistake and not RE's.

It wouldn't be the first time a reporter messed things up, but after years of hearing and reading Ellis quotes, it seems entirely plausible to me that the reporter got it right.

Unless Rupert (and I respect his opinion more than most people's on here) was a witness, my guess is that Ellis indeed did say what was attributed to him and then blamed the reporter later.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

It wouldn't be the first time a reporter messed things up, but after years of hearing and reading Ellis quotes, it seems entirely plausible to me that the reporter got it right.

Unless Rupert (and I respect his opinion more than most people's on here) was a witness, my guess is that Ellis indeed did say what was attributed to him and then blamed the reporter later.

I've never talkd to Ron about the issue and I didn't even know about it until I read it on here. But I knew it wasn't true because I talk to the guy practically every day and we used to talk about Declan's Moon all the time and he never mentioned the Strub Series. So when I heard the story on this board, I asked to see the article because I knew there was no way it was true. I read the article and nowhere in the article did Ellis mention the Strub Series or any of the races in the Strub Series. The only thing he said is, We're point the horse to the big races at Santa Anita." He was referring to the San Antonio, Santa Anita Handicap, etc.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I've heard the man speak and the dude is frickin clueless.

I left socal five years ago and don't follow the circuit like I used to, but what I remember is that he clearly got very nice stock from his owners and constantly underachieved with them.

He kind of reminds me of Gary Jones (except that Jones had no concerns about a horse's welfare). Year in and year out they would get well bred and talented horses that always seemed to underachieve.

He also sort of fits the mold used to cast Alex Hassinger, Simon Bray and that former Lukas assistant that trained Artax. Granted, he's not as bad as they all were but he definitely underachieves with what he's received.

Do I even need to bring up the Declan's Moon aiming for the Malibu thing?

I have heard people say that they think he underporms with some of the good young horses he gets. That is debatable but it is a fair argument.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Why would you say that? He consistently has one of the highest win percentages of any trainer. Win percentage is certainly not the only metric to use when evaluating a trainer's ability, but I don't think there are too many incompetent trainers out there with really high win percentages.

Ellis' win percentages is slightly lower than normal this year, but that's only because he has an unusually high number of 2nd place finishes this year. He is at 17% this year. He has 15 wins from 90 starts but he has run second about 23 or 24 times. His win percentage was 29% in 2006 and it was 19% in 2007. He can't be too incompetent with numbers like that.

In addition, look at the way he moves horses up off the claim. He does it very consistently. The one I can think of most recently is the one that ran on Saturday. The horse's name is Quick Enough. He claimed that horse off Carla Gaines for $25,000 back in December. He got the horse to win a starter allowance race, then a $54,000 nwx1 state bred allowance race, and then a $52,000 nwx1 open allowance race. They paid $25,000 for the horse 6 months ago. He's already made $90,000 and his value has gone up by 3x. Those owners have made about 6x their money.

And how has his value increased he is running out of conditions and he is a juice horse.. Are you suggesting that someone would be willing to pay 75k or 3x for this chemical wonder?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by freddymo

And how has his value increased he is running out of conditions and he is a juice horse.. Are you suggesting that someone would be willing to pay 75k or 3x for this chemical wonder?

There are horses that show big improvement that are not juiced. He didn't improve this horse 10 lengths overnight. He didn't even run the horse for about 6 weeks after he claimed him. I have never heard anyone accuse Ellis of being a juice trainer.

The horse is easily worth $75,000 right now. They could run him for $62,500 and he would win and he would get claimed. So he is really worth quite a bit more than $75,000. He would be 3-5 if he ran for $62,500.