Declan's Moon...Turf on Thursday

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Declan's Moon's race on Thursday is not on the grass. It's on the cushion track. I think the only reason they haven't retired him is because he still works like his old self in the morning. As good as he works, they can't believe that he won't run better. If he doesn't step up with a good effort soon, I think they are going to retire him very soon. They won't run him forever if he continues running like this, and they won't run him for a tag. He was too good to them.

It doesn't help that his trainer is incompetent.

[zippyneedsawin]

Since he's a gelding, I think they'll keep trying.. for now.

[ddthetide]

he's not run a decent race since he was injured at 3 and missed the TC. kinda sad.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by ddthetide

he's not run a decent race since he was injured at 3 and missed the TC. kinda sad.

Not true. His first two come back races were very good, then he seemed to stop trying. He has been a hell of a work horse in the morning.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

In this day and age, is winning at a 17% clip really high?

His win percentage over the last few years is about is about 22% not 17%. As I said, the 17% this year is very misleading because he has 15 wins but about 23 or 24 seconds. That's an aberration. He's basically a 20% trainer. That is very high on the Southern California circuit.

[ArlJim78]

I cant imagine what the knock is on Ellis. He seems like a solid trainer to me.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Doesn't he train for you? So maybe you are a bit biased?

It doesn't matter whether he trains for me or not. I'm just talking about the facts. He has strengths and weaknesses like every trainer. I recognize that win percentage is not everything, but over the last few years he has consistently had one of the highest win percentages on this circuit. When horses move into his barn, they usually improve.

He can't be completely incompetent.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I never said he was.

It wasn't you who called him incompetent. It was Indian Charlie.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

It doesn't help that his trainer is incompetent.

Why would you say that? He consistently has one of the highest win percentages of any trainer. Win percentage is certainly not the only metric to use when evaluating a trainer's ability, but I don't think there are too many incompetent trainers out there with really high win percentages.

Ellis' win percentages is slightly lower than normal this year, but that's only because he has an unusually high number of 2nd place finishes this year. He is at 17% this year. He has 15 wins from 90 starts but he has run second about 23 or 24 times. His win percentage was 29% in 2006 and it was 19% in 2007. He can't be too incompetent with numbers like that.

In addition, look at the way he moves horses up off the claim. He does it very consistently. The one I can think of most recently is the one that ran on Saturday. The horse's name is Quick Enough. He claimed that horse off Carla Gaines for $25,000 back in December. He got the horse to win a starter allowance race, then a $54,000 nwx1 state bred allowance race, and then a $52,000 nwx1 open allowance race. They paid $25,000 for the horse 6 months ago. He's already made $90,000 and his value has gone up by 3x. Those owners have made about 6x their money.

[Indian Charlie]

I've heard the man speak and the dude is frickin clueless.

I left socal five years ago and don't follow the circuit like I used to, but what I remember is that he clearly got very nice stock from his owners and constantly underachieved with them.

He kind of reminds me of Gary Jones (except that Jones had no concerns about a horse's welfare). Year in and year out they would get well bred and talented horses that always seemed to underachieve.

He also sort of fits the mold used to cast Alex Hassinger, Simon Bray and that former Lukas assistant that trained Artax. Granted, he's not as bad as they all were but he definitely underachieves with what he's received.

Do I even need to bring up the Declan's Moon aiming for the Malibu thing?

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Why would you say that? He consistently has one of the highest win percentages of any trainer. Win percentage is certainly not the only metric to use when evaluating a trainer's ability, but I don't think there are too many incompetent trainers out there with really high win percentages.

Ellis' win percentages is slightly lower than normal this year, but that's only because he has an unusually high number of 2nd place finishes this year. He is at 17% this year. He has 15 wins from 90 starts but he has run second about 23 or 24 times. His win percentage was 29% in 2006 and it was 19% in 2007. He can't be too incompetent with numbers like that.

In addition, look at the way he moves horses up off the claim. He does it very consistently. The one I can think of most recently is the one that ran on Saturday. The horse's name is Quick Enough. He claimed that horse off Carla Gaines for $25,000 back in December. He got the horse to win a starter allowance race, then a $54,000 nwx1 state bred allowance race, and then a $52,000 nwx1 open allowance race. They paid $25,000 for the horse 6 months ago. He's already made $90,000 and his value has gone up by 3x. Those owners have made about 6x their money.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Do I even need to bring up the Declan's Moon aiming for the Malibu thing?

Rupert insists that it was the reporters mistake and not RE's.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rupert insists that it was the reporters mistake and not RE's.

It wouldn't be the first time a reporter messed things up, but after years of hearing and reading Ellis quotes, it seems entirely plausible to me that the reporter got it right.

Unless Rupert (and I respect his opinion more than most people's on here) was a witness, my guess is that Ellis indeed did say what was attributed to him and then blamed the reporter later.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

It wouldn't be the first time a reporter messed things up, but after years of hearing and reading Ellis quotes, it seems entirely plausible to me that the reporter got it right.

Unless Rupert (and I respect his opinion more than most people's on here) was a witness, my guess is that Ellis indeed did say what was attributed to him and then blamed the reporter later.

I've never talkd to Ron about the issue and I didn't even know about it until I read it on here. But I knew it wasn't true because I talk to the guy practically every day and we used to talk about Declan's Moon all the time and he never mentioned the Strub Series. So when I heard the story on this board, I asked to see the article because I knew there was no way it was true. I read the article and nowhere in the article did Ellis mention the Strub Series or any of the races in the Strub Series. The only thing he said is, We're point the horse to the big races at Santa Anita." He was referring to the San Antonio, Santa Anita Handicap, etc.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I've heard the man speak and the dude is frickin clueless.

I left socal five years ago and don't follow the circuit like I used to, but what I remember is that he clearly got very nice stock from his owners and constantly underachieved with them.

He kind of reminds me of Gary Jones (except that Jones had no concerns about a horse's welfare). Year in and year out they would get well bred and talented horses that always seemed to underachieve.

He also sort of fits the mold used to cast Alex Hassinger, Simon Bray and that former Lukas assistant that trained Artax. Granted, he's not as bad as they all were but he definitely underachieves with what he's received.

Do I even need to bring up the Declan's Moon aiming for the Malibu thing?

I have heard people say that they think he underporms with some of the good young horses he gets. That is debatable but it is a fair argument.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Why would you say that? He consistently has one of the highest win percentages of any trainer. Win percentage is certainly not the only metric to use when evaluating a trainer's ability, but I don't think there are too many incompetent trainers out there with really high win percentages.

Ellis' win percentages is slightly lower than normal this year, but that's only because he has an unusually high number of 2nd place finishes this year. He is at 17% this year. He has 15 wins from 90 starts but he has run second about 23 or 24 times. His win percentage was 29% in 2006 and it was 19% in 2007. He can't be too incompetent with numbers like that.

In addition, look at the way he moves horses up off the claim. He does it very consistently. The one I can think of most recently is the one that ran on Saturday. The horse's name is Quick Enough. He claimed that horse off Carla Gaines for $25,000 back in December. He got the horse to win a starter allowance race, then a $54,000 nwx1 state bred allowance race, and then a $52,000 nwx1 open allowance race. They paid $25,000 for the horse 6 months ago. He's already made $90,000 and his value has gone up by 3x. Those owners have made about 6x their money.

And how has his value increased he is running out of conditions and he is a juice horse.. Are you suggesting that someone would be willing to pay 75k or 3x for this chemical wonder?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by freddymo

And how has his value increased he is running out of conditions and he is a juice horse.. Are you suggesting that someone would be willing to pay 75k or 3x for this chemical wonder?

There are horses that show big improvement that are not juiced. He didn't improve this horse 10 lengths overnight. He didn't even run the horse for about 6 weeks after he claimed him. I have never heard anyone accuse Ellis of being a juice trainer.

The horse is easily worth $75,000 right now. They could run him for $62,500 and he would win and he would get claimed. So he is really worth quite a bit more than $75,000. He would be 3-5 if he ran for $62,500.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

It doesn't help that his trainer is incompetent.

Ron Ellis has the highest win percenatge of any trainer at Hollywood Park this meet. He has 14 wins from 49 starters. That is a 29% win clip. For the year, he is at 20%. He has a ton of 2nd place finishes too. Over 40% of his starters this year have finished either 1st or 2nd.

That doesn't sound too incompetent to me.