Arlington Park - Million Day Analysis

[Scav]

Disclaimer: The first four races are EXTREMELY competitive, tread lightly. The wagers that I post will be played somehow someway, maybe 1 time or maybe a couple times, not sure how the roll is going to be tomorrow but I will say this. Tomorrow is either going to be brutal or a monster day. My major play is the pick three, 2nd level of wagers for me are win and exactas and 3rd level is tris....Depending on how the day is going, I might dabble in the late pick four with the 250k guarantee, surprised they didn't include all three Grade 1's in it but we will see...HERE WE GO!!

Race 1: Statebred MSW

Trainer Mike Reavis is absolutley LETHAL with 2nd time starters and he has the 5 Small Fry. Pretty impressive debut and I expect him to move forward. Watch the tote on the 8 Hedge as Hazelton/Silva 1st time is a SOLID OLD SCHOOL Arlington angle....I personally had a hard on for 3 Mister Extera when he made his debut. He didn't fare well but it could be contributed to him running on a dead rail(as noted by Thorograph) the whole time. Has a brutal trainer and jockey isn't too hot either but I have to play back at least for 2nd and 3rd at LONG odds

Race 2: 13.5 Claimers

Race is absolutley wide open. This is a tote race. Alot of the bigger players I know at Arlington make some HUGE scores by watching the board in these beaten up claimer races. This being said, I do like 10 Treat Me Neat a little. Always a good sign when they trek up I-80 from Fairmount

Race 3: 2 year old MSW Open

Another race that I recommend watching the board, as anybody should in a two year old race. That being said, 12 Nice Inheritance took Assmussen action first out and was pretty impressive. While he lost by 8, he was on the rail the whole time and was never 'clear' to really stretch his legs. BOMB ALERT: Martin gets aboard for the Calhoun(fresh off suspension) trained 4 Love Star. Made a sneaky good debut, had everything happen to him that possibly could happen in a race and Calhoun is 29% 2nd time starter. 2 Be Golden is training well for debut and hard not to like Flint as a trainer, easy not to like Albarado, although he has been on fire recently.

Race 4: 17.5 Claimers

Absolutely hate this race but like that is going to stop me. Both 10 Drama King and 11 Jazzy Gallop have positive in them. 'King' gets first time Emigh, who is Arlington's leading rider, dropping in class slightly, and it going back to the 7 furlong distance, Emigh/Springer win at almost 22% together. Jazzy Gallop was claimed last time off while a fan favorite, questionable Tom Tomillo, to the Calabrese/Catalano camp. Real nice work after the claim and hard not to bet a trainer that wins 33% of the time off the claim

Race 5: Smart Deb Stakes

This race almost put me on tilt while playing online cards. Soo much speed but their isn't a confirmed closer. People are going to unload on this 3 Performing Diva with Mott/Gomez and while she is the classiest, she is off form, and to me it doesn't seem like they know what to do with her. Toss her and you will get rewarded. I think 1 High Heritage got forced into the lead last time in a paceless race. She was breathing fire down the lane but still ran respectable. She will get a GREAT trip in this race and I have a feeling the rail will be the place to be tomorrow. Graham is absolutley perfect at these type trips. Now 5 Morner has been taking on some big time runners in stakes races and if this is a race where the best speed horse will win, I will take her with Leparoux on the the outside. All in all, should be a wide open race and wouldn't be surprised to see anyone, except Performing Diva, win...

Race 6: Statebred NW1...Another race that I thought was hard to handicap. Assmussen/Blasi's horse 8 Dyna Slam will take the bulk of the action but I have seen this horse run twice and I wasn't impressive. Got dusted on Illinois Day by her stable mate and burned some loot last time at 2/5. The horse I am looking at is 5 Lahar. Lahar has competitive numbers, competent jock and a running line that will pad the pocketbook. 3 sprints then stretched to the 1 turn mile, 2nd time at this mile distance this year, could be legged up for a big one

Race 7: Cigar Stakes: Ah, I still remember what it was like at Arlington when the Double D got the great Cigar to come and show up his ability. While it was a glorified workout, it was still nice to see an owner of a track(at the time) do something for the fans. Back to the actual race, I absolutely LOVE 2 Straight Line here. Horse loves Arlington and has arguely the best Arlington connections in Williamson/Emigh/Vanier. ArlJim will probably try and talk me into 6 High Expections tomorrow but he won't be able to do it. His last two, while impressive in all aspects, were against statebred rats and even Perfect Drift can pass them, if I play a tri here, I will include him for 3rd though. While I don't think anyone can beat Straight Line, I do think that you will get a patented Guidry ride on the 8 Tap Dancing Mauk to get 2nd at what will be a good price because Straight Line will take smart action, High Expectation will take weekend Arlington'ers action.

Race 8: The Beverly D: What an outstanding race. Last year was a little more deep in talent I feel but I am going to go out on a limb and say that this race might be the best race I will ever watch in person. ANY of these horses can win, ANY and I fully expected it to be a barn burner to the wire. That being said, we do have to make decisions because I don't have Lansdon type cash to go 8 million deep so you have four horses. 6 Honey Ryder, 7 Live Life, 10 Rich in Spirit and 11 Film Maker. Live Life might be a GREAT win money prospect as her last race in the Mabee, while 6th, it was only by 2 1/2 lengths. She has been 10 panels numerous times in her career and she might be the speed of the speed. While the turf course is not going to be condusive to speed tomorrow, I love her getting Victor. Rich in Spirit is another one that is worth every penny you put into her if you choose her. She is ALWAYS wide and been running good numbers while do it. Proctor/Guidry is ALWAYS dangerous, especially at Arlington and I have a feeling she is going to get the best trip in this race. Honey Ryder and Film Maker should be played just on merit. Both are extremely classy mares and run their number each and every time. I haven't even mentioned Gorella in this race, who I will be tossing, at least out of the top spot. I feel the almost 10 panels is a little long for her and she is going to have some SERIOUS traffic problems in this race, she might end up being 8 wide, which you don't want, in any race at any time.

Race 9: (Man, I didn't realize how much friggin work this is) AH the Arlington Million, what a great thing for Illinois racing. 1st off, I am tossing 10 Cacique completely. I personally think he has distance issues, and his last two races have been EXTREMELY grueling IMO. This leads me to 11 English Channel. This horse has ALOT going for him because if HIGHLY doubt he wants to let me down two years in a row. He is as gritty as they come and fact is that if he is allowed to settle in 4th or 5th, this race is over. But, I am not sure that will happen SO I will also be including 6 Phoenix Reach who just wins EVERYWHERE possible and I have a sneaky feeling that they have been targeting the Arlington Million for almost 13 months. 5 Solider Hollow is also another that while a questionable resume, has the numbers competitive numbers and will no doubt get a good trip from Douglas, who rides the Arlington green to perfection. I will also be including 3 Ace and 4 Touch of Land

Race 10: Forward Pass Stakes

I ABSOLUTLEY LOVE 3 Admirals Arch in this race, this horse was in the Grandstand parking lot, then the clubhouse parking lot, then Trackside parking lot the whole time last race (4W the whole time) and still ran somewhat creditable. Gets Bridgmo back and has numbers worthwhile here. 4 Off Duty, the probable post time favorite ran a huge race last time and it is hard to ignore the connections of Guidry and Whiting. 2 Dormy Lake and 6 Hallowed Flag are also live longshots in this race as both have playable connections that like to jump up and bite you sometimes.

Race 11: Secretariat Stakes

Here is my play of the day. While I absolutley LOVE 1 Showing Up in this spot and will have him on top, I am MORE EXCITED about 2 Proudinsky getting 2nd. This horse has every postive I can think of: 3rd race in the states, 3rd race off a layoff, 1st time Frankel(~30%) and gets Prado. Last race was ambitous but under Frankels care, this horse is going to run huge. for the 3rd spot, I really think Go Between is vunerable at what will probably be 5/2 odds. 6 Niagara Causeway can easily get 3rd here.

Race 12: BOMB ALERT and On TOP: 7 Delane: 3rd start off the layoff for a very competent Kassen/Marquez connection, rising in class without the benefit of a win. Horse is long on the morning line. It is also hard not to like 2 Murch as the Frenchmen is sticking around for the last race. 11 Fongtastic is owned by Dicky D who is ALWAYS dangerous at his own park. 10 Sidcup is the fastest horse in the race but this horse always burns my money, not a huge fan of Albarado in this crowded turf race either.

[Gander]

Scavs:
I like Tap Dancin Mauk very much in the Cigar Stakes.
I also think Rich and Spirit is well worth a stab in the Beverly D.
Good luck tomorrow, great write up. Now get some sleep!

[Scav]

Race 1 Pick Three

5,8/9,10/2,4,12

Race 3 Pick Three
2,4,12/10,11/1,5

Race 5 Pick Three
1,5/5,8/2,8

Race 7 Pick Three (Multiple times)

2/7,10,11 / 3,4,5,6,11

Exacta 2/8 (80% of total wanted exacta investment)
Exacta 8/2 (20% of total wanted exacta investment)

Race 8

Win/Place 7

Exacta 7,10,11/1,7,6,10,11

Race 9 Pick Three

11/3,4/1 (40% investment to Showing Up)
11/2,6/1 (20% investment to Showing Up)
11/3,4/2 (20% investment to Proudinsky)
11/2,6/2 (10% investment to Proudinsky)
5,6/3,4/1(4% to SU)
5,6/2,6/1(4% to SU)
5,6/3,4/2(1% to Proud)
5,6/2,6/2(1% to Proud)

I do'nt know what the math is on this but I am trying to get the point across of I am going to spread my money around proportionately by the middle race

Race 9 Pick Four
6,11/2,3,4,6/1/2,7,11 (80%)
6,11/2,3,4,6/2/2,7,11 (20%)

Race 11

1/2 Straight Exacta (Amount to what you want to win, divide what you want to win into probable payout and POUND IT)

Race 12

Win/Place 7

Exacta 7/2,10,11
Tri 2,7/2,7,10,11/2,7,10,11

[Scav]

I really hope you guys didn't look at this thread, Ridiculous, thoughts on a new thread