Can a consistent long-term profit be acheived in horseracing markets?

[Bobby Fischer]

Delaware Race3 $6 to win on #5 Rasser
estimated $2 price=15
est. hit%=.125
Value=1.125
edgefactor=.168
wager amount=6

Delaware Race3 $16 to place on #5 Rasser
estimated $2 price=8
est. hit%=.35
Value=1.4
edgefactor=.49
wager amount=16

[blackthroatedwind]

If Bellsbutthead would join this discussion I think we could safely call the Guiness Book.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If Bellsbutthead would join this discussion I think we could safely call the Guiness Book.

this is good stuff.
I'm gonna need you to inject some more NY Attitude as the thread goes on. Feel free to mush last out high beyer winners as well...

The Little Guy everybody... Steve Crist

*claps*

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

The Edge Factor... Pretty Soon It Will Be The Tie In Too The Sales Pitch.... 5,4,3,2,1...............

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

The Edge Factor... Pretty Soon It Will Be The Tie In Too The Sales Pitch.... 5,4,3,2,1...............

Edge factor is just Value times estimatedHit%
=Value*hit%

Edgefactor is just an easier way of saying all that.
You can use it to decide how much you want to bet if you don't want randomness to cause you to ruin your bankroll.

Value is the $2price times estimated% divided by 2 value = ($2price*hitProbability)/2
So a $6 horse with a 1/3hit probability would be a break even wager or 1.00.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

The Edge Factor... Pretty Soon It Will Be The Tie In Too The Sales Pitch.... 5,4,3,2,1...............

will you handle this guy once and for all...

we should do a mythical contest... 1000 bankroll for a 2 week period. something like that

[ArlJim78]

i want to see a heads-up contest between jcs and bobby fischer, no holds barred. start with mythical $1000, first one to $2000 wins. fischer uses edge factor, jcs can use his own system or a crystal ball, whatever works best.

my money is on jcs and his crystal ball.

[Bobby Fischer]

Delaware Race7 $16 to win on #11 born to be
estimated $2 price=6
est. hit%=.40
Value=1.2
edgefactor=.48
wager amount=16

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Delaware Race3 $6 to win on #5 Rasser
Delaware Race3 $16 to place on #5 Rasser

Lose, loss = $22
new bankroll =1059.20


comments: good price on High percentage barn stretch-out in a weak field of maidens with no other big% barns, not this time. Horse pulls up after stopping badly on the backstretch.