Beyer Help, Please

[NoLuvForPletch]

In my neverending quest to understand The Beyer figure, I have a new question.

A filly runs on May 2nd, a 6f turf sprint, and earns a 78 BSF. I bought the figure on DRF a day or 2 after the race. This filly runs back on May 22, and the 78 BSF is in her PP's in the DRF. The race sets up horribly for her and she is given no chance in the race by the jock's poor tactics, and is subsequently given a much lower figure, and deservedly so. She is entered again on June 19, but in her PP's for the May 2 race is an 80 BSF.

Can anyone explain this to me? Isn't that like a 4-5 length difference?

[Thunder Gulch]

Beyer "improved" his figure making in the years after Picking Winners. In that book his methodology was based strictly on the times and variants. He moved to a "projection" method later which introduced an element of subjectivity to his numbers. Now the Beyer associate responsible for each track includes an assessment for how fast they think the race should have been run into their final assignment of the variant and figures. Not as cut and dried as it once was, but probably a bit more accurate. I would still highly recommend reading Picking Winners to understand the nuts and bolts of how it all got started.

As for the value of a length in points. It varies by distance. A length at 6f is obviously a greater percentage of the overall distance run than a length at 10f. Also consider that it takes longer to run each subsequent furlong as the races get longer.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Beyer "improved" his figure making in the years after Picking Winners. In that book his methodology was based strictly on the times and variants. He moved to a "projection" method later which introduced an element of subjectivity to his numbers. Now the Beyer associate responsible for each track includes an assessment for how fast they think the race should have been run into their final assignment of the variant and figures. Not as cut and dried as it once was, but probably a bit more accurate. I would still highly recommend reading Picking Winners to understand the nuts and bolts of how it all got started.

As for the value of a length in points. It varies by distance. A length at 6f is obviously a greater percentage of the overall distance run than a length at 10f. Also consider that it takes longer to run each subsequent furlong as the races get longer.

Thanks, but what would've caused an adjustment anywhere from 4 - 6 weeks later?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Thanks, but what would've caused an adjustment anywhere from 4 - 6 weeks later?

Numbers are very often under review, as there are a variety of reasons that even one person thinks a number might not be the best representative of the performance. Subsequent efforts by horses, not necessarily exclusive to the race in question, might help bring that number more into focus thus necessitating a change.

As I've said here before, Beyer once said to me " we never change a number to make it less accurate. "

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Numbers are very often under review, as there are a variety of reasons that even one person thinks a number might not be the best representative of the performance. Subsequent efforts by horses, not necessarily exclusive to the race in question, might help bring that number more into focus thus necessitating a change.

As I've said here before, Beyer once said to me " we never change a number to make it less accurate. "

I thought that was one thing that might have something to do with it, but I'm just surprised to see it done. It's not like it was a high profile race/horse. It was a F & M NW1X NYSB 6f turf race, so I was just surprised when I looked at the PP's last night and saw the 80 in place of the 78.

[blackthroatedwind]

I bring up figs that I disagree with fairly often with Beyer, and these are usually random races, and quite often he has the figure marked as under review.