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#1
06-15-2008, 01:36 PM
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Belmont Race4 $10 to win on #3 Polonui
estimated $2 price=7 est. hit%=.3 Value=1.05 edgefactor=.315 wager amount=10 + Belmont Race4 $24 to show on #3 Polonui estimated $2 price=3 est. hit%=.7 Value=1.05 edgefactor=.735 wager amount=24 
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#2
06-15-2008, 01:45 PM
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new bankroll = $1077.25 Comments: Clemente layoff horse didn't fire. Did not appear to enjoy slow pace on slow turf, was well held & rank through traffic for most. May not be much horse, or could surprise in a future weak turf sprint.
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#3
06-15-2008, 03:43 PM
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Belmont Race8 $29 to show on #6 Lovely Isle
estimated $2 price=3 est. hit%=.75 Value=1.125 edgefactor=.84 wager amount=29
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#4
06-15-2008, 03:56 PM
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new bankroll =1093.20 Comments: $3.10 great value on the far superior animal paying 6-5 to win. Adjusted the formula here: BANKROLL*VALUE*HIT%*.033. Originally I was going to use *0.1 , however the goal of this is to show consistent longterm profit so it was reduced to a third. I would have gone heavier here anyway, but I couldn't believe that everyone didn't put huge show money on the 6 after OFF. I was worried he would go off at 2.50 to show.
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#5
06-15-2008, 04:41 PM
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#6
06-15-2008, 06:38 PM
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There's much to be said about grinding out a .99 ROI and making up the difference in rebates (and volume). For those in CLUELESS circles, this has become the de facto way to do things. Frankly, I don't get it. The game to me is the ultimate challenge and has a certain aesthetic quality to it; it's as much art as it is a skill. Crunching numbers, abstractions, that have no resemblance to the game itself to eek out a small profit is probably something like being forced to jack off to gay porn when you're straight. Luckily, there's an alternative to this method. It's the liberating method of watching races. Get good at this and a 1.5 ROI is commonplace. In fact, this is probably the level during a LOSING streak. Then, any discussion about the .99 ROI method is kind of uninteresting. This is something that Fischer and his friends don't quite get. The is the realm of HAVING AN OPINION. Needless to say, I hang on every new posting in Fischer's monologues.
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#7
06-15-2008, 06:45 PM
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This has thread of the year potential......
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#8
06-15-2008, 08:04 PM
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Roflzzz....
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exact math = $166 Wagered $248.2 Returned 1.495181 --------- =1.495 ROI respect my "swagger" everyone is allowed to have their own style. We've got some people that work in the industry. There's a pecking order. Steve Byk and all these people are at the top. I also respect Fat Man's opinion. Stop being a baby and maybe we can bs a race sometime. Last edited by Bobby Fischer : 06-15-2008 at 08:10 PM. Reason: LIBERATE THIS
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#9
06-16-2008, 10:40 AM
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For those who play Delaware Park
some Quirky track configuration info that you should take note of:
races 5,7 today at the About 1 1/16th turf distance. Starting near a slight turn in the shoot, they go about 8 seconds before the shoot turn, and then enter Turn1 at about 27 seconds. Difficult for outside speed, particularly those who have built their past performances on easy leads. Outside posts require skilled handling by the jockeys. --- allright... we can see in the 7th that the uncoupled Matz entry(#s4,11) plays a role in the track configuration information. The 11 potentially lays over the field in talent, has a jockey that can judge the track configuration and the pace in Dominguez. The 4 has potential to clear the field, he's in there to be a rabbit, but could still compete for the tri... Too bad Kyle Branch is on. Matz is no dummy, Branch off and Napravinik on the 4. Also Add the potent drug Amicar to the 11. Last edited by Bobby Fischer : 06-16-2008 at 11:04 AM. Reason: adding MORE info
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#10
06-16-2008, 12:42 PM
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Delaware Race3 $6 to win on #5 Rasser
estimated $2 price=15 est. hit%=.125 Value=1.125 edgefactor=.168 wager amount=6 Delaware Race3 $16 to place on #5 Rasser estimated $2 price=8 est. hit%=.35 Value=1.4 edgefactor=.49 wager amount=16
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#11
06-15-2008, 04:15 PM
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Belmont Race9 $1ex bx 1,2,3,9 =$12
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#12
06-15-2008, 04:21 PM
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I appreciate what you are trying to do here, but it would take the patience of Jobe to accomplish this. Your last bet should have been a large show bet on the 1 or 3 as the prices were not bad for what you are trying to do.
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#13
06-15-2008, 04:33 PM
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new bankroll =1081.20 Comments: I was wrong about thinking First Defence had a 70% chance of quitting out of the exacta. One of those cases where you are basically making a best "guess". In hindsight, a very bad guess. I also think I was too aggressive and should have held out for great value on a guess. Math= exotic cost= $12 min expected payout = $20 for $1 estimated $2 price=3.33333 est. hit%=.70 Value=1.155 edgefactor=.80 wager amount=28
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#14
06-15-2008, 04:37 PM
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#15
06-15-2008, 04:50 PM
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The only thing to think about with bet size right now is to keep it small enough that randomness will not skew the results. The main concern is accurately finding high value plays.
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#16
06-29-2008, 08:17 PM
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I'm going to go out on a limb here and answer your original question.
No ( Just bustin chops BF, I really do understand what you are trying to accomplish here and I applaud you for it. I know you're working with a longer time frame than just 2 weeks. It just reminds me of a good friend of mine (masters in mathmatics) who has been making a "living" the last three years playing online poker. He definitely turns a monthly profit and all, but man, the hours he spends on it are ridiculous.)
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#17
07-01-2008, 03:48 PM
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woodbine r8 $25 show #9
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#18
07-01-2008, 03:53 PM
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take that deli lama DOWN
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#19
07-01-2008, 04:03 PM
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bankroll = 1181.35 they couldn't take that Jono Jones completely out, so no show pay boost. Lucky she won the photo for 3rd, not sure they would have taken 2nd place down to 4th had she not. 
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