Can a consistent long-term profit be acheived in horseracing markets?

[ArlJim78]

i'm on the edge of my seat.

[Bobby Fischer]

Belmont Race4 $10 to win on #3 Polonui
estimated $2 price=7
est. hit%=.3
Value=1.05
edgefactor=.315
wager amount=10

+

Belmont Race4 $24 to show on #3 Polonui
estimated $2 price=3
est. hit%=.7
Value=1.05
edgefactor=.735
wager amount=24

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Belmont Race4 $10 to win on #3 Polonui


Belmont Race4 $24 to show on #3 Polonui

lose, loss = $34
new bankroll = $1077.25



Comments: Clemente layoff horse didn't fire. Did not appear to enjoy slow pace on slow turf, was well held & rank through traffic for most. May not be much horse, or could surprise in a future weak turf sprint.

[Bobby Fischer]

Belmont Race8 $29 to show on #6 Lovely Isle
estimated $2 price=3
est. hit%=.75
Value=1.125
edgefactor=.84
wager amount=29

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Belmont Race8 $29 to show on #6 Lovely Isle

win, return = $44.95(14.5*$3.10)
new bankroll =1093.20

Comments: $3.10 great value on the far superior animal paying 6-5 to win.
Adjusted the formula here: BANKROLL*VALUE*HIT%*.033.
Originally I was going to use *0.1 , however the goal of this is to show consistent longterm profit so it was reduced to a third.
I would have gone heavier here anyway, but I couldn't believe that everyone didn't put huge show money on the 6 after OFF. I was worried he would go off at 2.50 to show.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

win, return = $44.95(14.5*$3.10)
new bankroll =1093.20

Comments: $3.10 great value on the far superior animal paying 6-5 to win.
Adjusted the formula here: BANKROLL*VALUE*HIT%*.033.
Originally I was going to use *0.1 , however the goal of this is to show consistent longterm profit so it was reduced to a third.
I would have gone heavier here anyway, but I couldn't believe that everyone didn't put huge show money on the 6 after OFF. I was worried he would go off at 2.50 to show.

you bet lovley isle to show.. you are an idiot

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

you bet lovley isle to show.. you are an idiot

If the dude had a clue, you think he'd be here doing his best Dave Schwartz or Overlay impression? He'd be sitting back and trying to pick up some pointers about HANDICAPPING from people who actually are adept at it.

There's much to be said about grinding out a .99 ROI and making up the difference in rebates (and volume). For those in CLUELESS circles, this has become the de facto way to do things. Frankly, I don't get it. The game to me is the ultimate challenge and has a certain aesthetic quality to it; it's as much art as it is a skill. Crunching numbers, abstractions, that have no resemblance to the game itself to eek out a small profit is probably something like being forced to jack off to gay porn when you're straight.

Luckily, there's an alternative to this method. It's the liberating method of watching races. Get good at this and a 1.5 ROI is commonplace. In fact, this is probably the level during a LOSING streak. Then, any discussion about the .99 ROI method is kind of uninteresting. This is something that Fischer and his friends don't quite get. The is the realm of HAVING AN OPINION.

Needless to say, I hang on every new posting in Fischer's monologues.

[Bobby Fischer]

some Quirky track configuration info that you should take note of:
races 5,7 today at the About 1 1/16th turf distance.
Starting near a slight turn in the shoot, they go about 8 seconds before the shoot turn, and then enter Turn1 at about 27 seconds. Difficult for outside speed, particularly those who have built their past performances on easy leads. Outside posts require skilled handling by the jockeys.

---
allright...
we can see in the 7th that the uncoupled Matz entry(#s4,11) plays a role in the track configuration information. The 11 potentially lays over the field in talent, has a jockey that can judge the track configuration and the pace in Dominguez. The 4 has potential to clear the field, he's in there to be a rabbit, but could still compete for the tri... Too bad Kyle Branch is on. Matz is no dummy, Branch off and Napravinik on the 4. Also Add the potent drug Amicar to the 11.

[Bobby Fischer]

Belmont Race9 $1ex bx 1,2,3,9 =$12

[fpsoxfan]

I appreciate what you are trying to do here, but it would take the patience of Jobe to accomplish this. Your last bet should have been a large show bet on the 1 or 3 as the prices were not bad for what you are trying to do.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Belmont Race9 $1ex bx 1,2,3,9 =$12

Lose, loss = $12
new bankroll =1081.20


Comments: I was wrong about thinking First Defence had a 70% chance of quitting out of the exacta. One of those cases where you are basically making a best "guess". In hindsight, a very bad guess. I also think I was too aggressive and should have held out for great value on a guess.
Math=
exotic cost= $12
min expected payout = $20 for $1
estimated $2 price=3.33333
est. hit%=.70
Value=1.155
edgefactor=.80
wager amount=28

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Lose, loss = $12
new bankroll =1081.20


Comments: I was wrong about thinking First Defence had a 70% chance of quitting out of the exacta. One of those cases where you are basically making a best "guess". In hindsight, a very bad guess. I also think I was too aggressive and should have held out for great value on a guess.Math=
exotic cost= $12
min expected payout = $20 for $1
estimated $2 price=3.33333
est. hit%=.70
Value=1.155
edgefactor=.80
wager amount=28

On a four horse box for $12 with a 1,000 bankroll? Your kidding...right?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

On a four horse box for $12 with a 1,000 bankroll? Your kidding...right?

Bet size is pretty much a secondary concern.

The only thing to think about with bet size right now is to keep it small enough that randomness will not skew the results.

The main concern is accurately finding high value plays.

[herkhorse]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and answer your original question.

No















( Just bustin chops BF, I really do understand what you are trying to accomplish here and I applaud you for it. I know you're working with a longer time frame than just 2 weeks. It just reminds me of a good friend of mine (masters in mathmatics) who has been making a "living" the last three years playing online poker. He definitely turns a monthly profit and all, but man, the hours he spends on it are ridiculous.)

[Bobby Fischer]

woodbine r8 $25 show #9