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#1
06-15-2008, 12:43 PM
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new bankroll = $1112.25 Comments: seemed like a great value play. Expected $3 back in the place pool on the 6/5 shot. #5 was full of juice, recently gelded and well bet and faced 4 entries. His main rival was not recieving lasix. Didn't want to invest in a 2yo first time starter race, hence the "fun" size wager. Last edited by Bobby Fischer : 06-15-2008 at 12:44 PM. Reason: ftfy 
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#3
06-15-2008, 01:36 PM
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Belmont Race4 $10 to win on #3 Polonui
estimated $2 price=7 est. hit%=.3 Value=1.05 edgefactor=.315 wager amount=10 + Belmont Race4 $24 to show on #3 Polonui estimated $2 price=3 est. hit%=.7 Value=1.05 edgefactor=.735 wager amount=24
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#4
06-15-2008, 01:45 PM
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new bankroll = $1077.25 Comments: Clemente layoff horse didn't fire. Did not appear to enjoy slow pace on slow turf, was well held & rank through traffic for most. May not be much horse, or could surprise in a future weak turf sprint.
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#5
06-15-2008, 03:43 PM
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Belmont Race8 $29 to show on #6 Lovely Isle
estimated $2 price=3 est. hit%=.75 Value=1.125 edgefactor=.84 wager amount=29
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#6
06-15-2008, 03:56 PM
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new bankroll =1093.20 Comments: $3.10 great value on the far superior animal paying 6-5 to win. Adjusted the formula here: BANKROLL*VALUE*HIT%*.033. Originally I was going to use *0.1 , however the goal of this is to show consistent longterm profit so it was reduced to a third. I would have gone heavier here anyway, but I couldn't believe that everyone didn't put huge show money on the 6 after OFF. I was worried he would go off at 2.50 to show.
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#7
06-15-2008, 04:41 PM
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#8
06-15-2008, 04:15 PM
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Belmont Race9 $1ex bx 1,2,3,9 =$12
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#9
06-15-2008, 04:21 PM
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I appreciate what you are trying to do here, but it would take the patience of Jobe to accomplish this. Your last bet should have been a large show bet on the 1 or 3 as the prices were not bad for what you are trying to do.
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#10
06-15-2008, 04:33 PM
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new bankroll =1081.20 Comments: I was wrong about thinking First Defence had a 70% chance of quitting out of the exacta. One of those cases where you are basically making a best "guess". In hindsight, a very bad guess. I also think I was too aggressive and should have held out for great value on a guess. Math= exotic cost= $12 min expected payout = $20 for $1 estimated $2 price=3.33333 est. hit%=.70 Value=1.155 edgefactor=.80 wager amount=28
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#11
06-15-2008, 04:37 PM
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#12
06-15-2008, 04:50 PM
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The only thing to think about with bet size right now is to keep it small enough that randomness will not skew the results. The main concern is accurately finding high value plays.
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#13
06-29-2008, 08:17 PM
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I'm going to go out on a limb here and answer your original question.
No ( Just bustin chops BF, I really do understand what you are trying to accomplish here and I applaud you for it. I know you're working with a longer time frame than just 2 weeks. It just reminds me of a good friend of mine (masters in mathmatics) who has been making a "living" the last three years playing online poker. He definitely turns a monthly profit and all, but man, the hours he spends on it are ridiculous.)
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