5/25 belmont

[pick4]

Value Stream and Venetian Causeway ran in the same race on 4/25 at Keeneland. I just watched the race and Value Stream ran a winning race and was unfortunate to lose. The winner of the race Alluring Tune finished third as the favorire last Sunday at Belmont but had a bad trip as she checked on the turn which caused her to lose momentum in addition to a few lengths.

I already posted that I like Madam Bling to run a good race. Value Stream, as I was reminded by another poster is the horse to beat. Tagg trained horses have had their pictures taken quite a few times since Belmont Park opened.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pick4

I already posted that I like Madam Bling to run a good race. Value Stream, as I was reminded by another poster is the horse to beat. Tagg trained horses have had their pictures taken quite a few times since Belmont Park opened.

Taking horses trying the turf for the first time at short prices is never a great idea. Plus, Tagg is now being overbet, especially in these situations, so you are taking much the worst of it with this horse.

Look, obviously the horse can win, but making money at the track requires being counterintuitive, particularly in these kinds of situations, and betting on the Value Streams of the world is a losing proposition over the long haul.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Taking horses trying the turf for the first time at short prices is never a great idea. Plus, Tagg is now being overbet, especially in these situations, so you are taking much the worst of it with this horse.

Look, obviously the horse can win, but making money at the track requires being counterintuitive, particularly in these kinds of situations, and betting on the Value Streams of the world is a losing proposition over the long haul.

I hoping to get Madam Bling home and hopefully at her 10-1 odds. If Madam Bling does not run well I will lose. But I will include Value Stream in my wagers. I not sure how I want to bet on this race yet.

The points you made about Value Stream are definately valid about taking a horse at a short price trying grass first time. But once again we are confronted with the move from Poly to grass or dirt. She's been morning glory since coming to Belmont. How that translates to raceday is an ? which will be answered in about 13 hours.

[asudevil]

Equally is a single.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Equally is a single.

I'm not sure I share your confidence but I like Equally as well.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not sure I share your confidence but I like Equally as well.

You shouldn't after yesterday (my wonderful selection)....Must thank you for the Sadlers Wells pick which helped ease the pain.