Big Brown - Overrated?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

- Too bad AGS was born a year too soon, He'd be smoking this crop on his way to immortality instead of an afterthought behind Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin.

HA HA HA HA HA

Oh LORD, I needed a good laugh today.

you really should hook up with DanG over at PA; he's got it bad for AGS as well.

[Bobby Fischer]

Saturday had those two races(haskell/dwyer) where he was Ghostzapper, and the rest of the season he was Bluegrass Cat.

Tampa Derby was pretty awesome as well.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Saturday had those two races(haskell/dwyer) where he was Ghostzapper.

He took advantage of a dream trip in a paceless Dwyer.

In the Haskell he rode a live rail - while a stumbling start and the hopeless Cable Boy prevented Hard Spun from getting the lead where he runs his best races from.

Curlin was returning from a layoff - and is a wide running type horse who was up against it with the way the track was playing that day.

AGS's best race was open lengths inferior to Ghostzapper's average race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

BB's figures are lacking almost as much as his quality of opposition is.

However, he hasn't had anything close to the kind of trip or circumstances that leads to a big figure.

* In his return at GP, from a long layoff, off of just two works, he got mixed up in a pace battle with a couple of speedy horses and won stylishly anyway - his pace rivals were a badly fractured last and 2nd to last as the 2nd and 3rd choices in the betting.

* In the Florida Derby he was marooned out in post 12 at GP. He was wisely ridden hard out of the gate - but was still caught wide enough on the first turn.

* In the Kentucky Derby he broke from post 20 and won despite being hung wide throughout. Showing the ability to rate kind and finish strong at a Classic distance

* In the Preakness, the two pacesetters tried to box him in and race ride. With the bullseye on him, he had to rate his way off the inside and out into the clear. The two pacesetters finished 11th and 12th in a field of 12 - more than 7 lengths behind the 10th place finisher. The pace was decent and he fractured his pace companions with his move.

If you look at the big figures this year - they are a 119 by Commentator and a 118 by Monetarry Jazz. Both came when allowed to crawl on uncontested leads, through absurdly slow 1st quarters, at a middle distance, in races TOTALLY lacking speed.

I believe that BB's best distance is a middle distance. He's just winning these races at Classic distances because he's overwhelmingly superior to the bums he's facing.

He's certainly a better horse than Hard Spun, Street Sense, and Any Given Saturday. Through five career races - I'd also give him a slim edge over Curlin.

Even though I'm certain we haven't seen Big Brown's good race yet - and we won't see it in the Belmont - his numbers aren't much - and if a forgotten type horse like a Captain Bodgit would have been in the '08 Preakness instead of the '97 Preakness he would have been defeated for sure.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

BB's figures are lacking almost as much as his quality of opposition is.

However, he hasn't had anything close to the kind of trip or circumstances that leads to a big figure.

* In his return at GP, from a long layoff, off of just two works, he got mixed up in a pace battle with a couple of speedy horses and won stylishly anyway - his pace rivals were a badly fractured last and 2nd to last as the 2nd and 3rd choices in the betting.

* In the Florida Derby he was marooned out in post 12 at GP. He was wisely ridden hard out of the gate - but was still caught wide enough on the first turn.

* In the Kentucky Derby he broke from post 20 and won despite being hung wide throughout. Showing the ability to rate kind and finish strong at a

* In the Preakness, the two pacesetters tried to box him in and race ride. With the bullseye on him, he had to rate his way off the inside and out into the clear. The two pacesetters finished 11th and 12th in a field of 12 - more than 7 lengths behind the 10th place finisher. The pace was decent and he fractured his pace companions with his move.

If you look at the big figures this year - they are a 119 by Commentator and a 118 by Monetarry Jazz. Both came when allowed to crawl on uncontested leads, through absurdly slow 1st quarters, at a middle distance, in races TOTALLY lacking speed.

I believe that BB's best distance is a middle distance. He's just winning these races at Classic distances because he's overwhelmingly superior to the bums he's facing.

He's certainly a better horse than Hard Spun, Street Sense, and Any Given Saturday. Through five career races - I'd also give him a slim edge over Curlin.

Even though I'm certain we haven't seen Big Brown's good race yet - and we won't see it in the Belmont - his numbers aren't much - and if a forgotten type horse like a Captain Bodgit would have been in the '08 Preakness instead of the '97 Preakness he would have been defeated for sure.

Such genius

[lemoncrush]

Comparing Big Brown to LITF is apples and oranges.
It doesn't seem fair to compare a sprinter who pretty much only ran 6F races over dirt, to a horse trying for the Triple Crown.
I can see the Bernadini comparison, but again...he only ran in 1 triple crown race. I'm not overhyping Big Brown, but I think a fair comparison right now would be other horses at this stage of their career (mid-way through their 3-yo campaign).

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

BB's figures are lacking almost as much as his quality of opposition is.

However, he hasn't had anything close to the kind of trip or circumstances that leads to a big figure.

* In his return at GP, from a long layoff, off of just two works, he got mixed up in a pace battle with a couple of speedy horses and won stylishly anyway - his pace rivals were a badly fractured last and 2nd to last as the 2nd and 3rd choices in the betting.

* In the Florida Derby he was marooned out in post 12 at GP. He was wisely ridden hard out of the gate - but was still caught wide enough on the first turn.

* In the Kentucky Derby he broke from post 20 and won despite being hung wide throughout. Showing the ability to rate kind and finish strong at a Classic distance

* In the Preakness, the two pacesetters tried to box him in and race ride. With the bullseye on him, he had to rate his way off the inside and out into the clear. The two pacesetters finished 11th and 12th in a field of 12 - more than 7 lengths behind the 10th place finisher. The pace was decent and he fractured his pace companions with his move.

If you look at the big figures this year - they are a 119 by Commentator and a 118 by Monetarry Jazz. Both came when allowed to crawl on uncontested leads, through absurdly slow 1st quarters, at a middle distance, in races TOTALLY lacking speed.

I believe that BB's best distance is a middle distance. He's just winning these races at Classic distances because he's overwhelmingly superior to the bums he's facing.

He's certainly a better horse than Hard Spun, Street Sense, and Any Given Saturday. Through five career races - I'd also give him a slim edge over Curlin.

Even though I'm certain we haven't seen Big Brown's good race yet - and we won't see it in the Belmont - his numbers aren't much - and if a forgotten type horse like a Captain Bodgit would have been in the '08 Preakness instead of the '97 Preakness he would have been defeated for sure.

Couldn't agree more with your trip analysis.

Tough to compare him with Hard Spun, Street Sense, & Curlin at this point in his career (he's definitely better than Any Given Saturday however). I'd put him ahead of all three, but not by the margins you seem to be thinking.

[the_fat_man]

In my 30 years of watching races

BB is to most horses

what a geared bike is to a fixed gear bike.

When you ride geared, the gears do a good deal of the work for you; you can stop and start and coast with relative ease. Riding fixed gear, YOU do all the work, and stopping and starting takes a significant amount of energy; and you can't coast.

All the other stuff is irrelevant or banal.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

In my 30 years of watching races

BB is to most horses

what a geared bike is to a fixed gear bike.

When you ride geared, the gears do a good deal of the work for you; you can stop and start and coast with relative ease. Riding fixed gear, YOU do all the work, and stopping and starting takes a significant amount of energy; and you can't coast.

All the other stuff is irrelevant or banal.

Hey FAT - Barbaro, Bernardini, Curlin or Brown ??
in what order

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Hey FAT - Barbaro, Bernardini, Curlin or Brown ??
in what order

Curlin/Brown/Barbaro/Bernardini

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

Curlin/Brown/Barbaro/Bernardini

Wow.

[goodcopy]

Man all you people who cant' appreciate a horse that comes along every 30 years does every thing asked of him with ease are one of the reason this sport is in trouble!
Give me a breake,if this colt wins at "Big Sandy"(Belmont)and is alowed to race at least once against Curlin and other older horses this year or next you have to put him in the top 15 to 20 horses all time!

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Hey FAT - Barbaro, Bernardini, Curlin or Brown ??
in what order

Curlin/Bernardini/Brown/Barbaro

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Curlin/Bernardini/Brown/Barbaro

That's the way I'd put it, although the top two are interchangeable for me.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Hey FAT - Barbaro, Bernardini, Curlin or Brown ??
in what order

shoot.. what a good race this would have been... throw in an invasor.. and it could have been totally possible if there wasnt such a rush to the shed (well and if barbaro wouldnt have broken down).

I think they all have/had great talent and cannot seperate them. Curlin as a 4yo would beat them all IMO but who can know how good barbaro, berni or brown could be at that age. Brown very much reminds me of Barbaro though.

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I think they all have/had great talent and cannot seperate them. Curlin as a 4yo would beat them all IMO but who can know how good barbaro, berni or brown could be at that age. Brown very much reminds me of Barbaro though.

I don't think Berni ever beats Invasor...