Memo to Dutrow, Casino Drive is Godzilla

[Zippy Chippy]

Desormeaux gave Big Brown a hand ride yesterday and crushed the field by five lengths. This horse still has a lot left in the tank, and there really isn't a good reason to think that he can't go 12 panels in three weeks against this competition and win.

Casino Drive may put up a fight, but I don't see Big Brown losing the Belmont.

[Zippy Chippy]

Forgive me for having too much time on my hands, but I was curious to see what the odds of one broodmare foaling the winner of a race like the Belmont three years in a row.

Using an rough estimate of 35,000 foals per year:
The odds of a broodmare foaling one Belmont winner is 1 in 35,000.
The odds of a broodmare foaling two consecutive Belmont winners is 1 in 1,225,000,000.
The odds of a broodmare foaling three consecutive Belmont winners is 1 in 42,875,000,000,000.

I'm no mathematician, so take it for what it's worth. Either way, it could be historic Belmont. If Casino Drive does pull it off, then Better Than Honor will have beaten some incredible odds.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Go back,and you'll see that both Smarty and Funny Cide won the Preakness in similar fashion. Dutrow's "techniques" may get him through the last leg, but this race is not like the other 2 legs. Since the last T.C. winner, there have been 11 who have won the 1st two legs. None , so far, have taken the 3rd leg. I do think that Desormeaux's experience in the race helps. Also, I think the trainer's enhancements may help. There are arguments in favor of both sides. There really was not a good argument against him winning the Preakness.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Go back,and you'll see that both Smarty and Funny Cide won the Preakness in similar fashion. Dutrow's "techniques" may get him through the last leg, but this race is not like the other 2 legs. Since the last T.C. winner, there have been 11 who have won the 1st two legs. None , so far, have taken the 3rd leg. I do think that Desormeaux's experience in the race helps. Also, I think the trainer's enhancements may help. There are arguments in favor of both sides. There really was not a good argument against him winning the Preakness.

We wont know for three weeks, but I feel that Smarty and Funny Cide were both pushed in the Preakness a little to hard. They won by open lenghts but I think it took a lot more out of them than Big Brown.

Big Brown didnt even look tired after the race and the only time he actually ran hard were those 5 strides he took to open up 6 on the field. Kent looked like he had a hold of him for like a mile in that race. shoot he even said he was still holding him back around the far turn, and once he opened up Kent eased on him. He looked like he wanted to run 2 miles yesterday.

I may go out on the limb and say there will be at least 6 lengths between Big Brown and Casino Drive at the end of the Belmont, with Big Brown in front of course. I really feel it will be a Point Given / Afleet Alex type Belmont performance.

[Zippy Chippy]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Go back,and you'll see that both Smarty and Funny Cide won the Preakness in similar fashion. Dutrow's "techniques" may get him through the last leg, but this race is not like the other 2 legs.

If I recall correctly, wasn't Funny Cide needlessly whipped all the way to the wire in his Preakness? It seemed like that driving finish sapped him of energy that he would need three weeks later. As for Smarty, I wonder if he was running against a stronger crop with more legitimate contenders. It seemed like they threw speed at him the whole way. I kind of think that Big Brown can rate the speedballs and take over the race once they have burned out.

[ELA]

I won't debate the Preakness aspect itself, but with Funny Cide -- he was becoming sharper and sharper, and more unmanagable as they got closer to the Belmont. His final work before the Belmont was merely the culmination of what had been going on. This is no reflection on Tagg by the way as I think he is an excellent horseman, and he is very well respected by his peers.

Eric

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by ELA

I won't debate the Preakness aspect itself, but with Funny Cide -- he was becoming sharper and sharper, and more unmanagable as they got closer to the Belmont. His final work before the Belmont was merely the culmination of what had been going on. This is no reflection on Tagg by the way as I think he is an excellent horseman, and he is very well respected by his peers.

Eric

Thats right... I forgot and he was rank as hell in the Belmont... who knows what may have happened if he could settle. It would have been tough beating Empire Maker though.

I dont think Casino Drive is anything like Empire Maker... or Birdstone for that matter. or Victory Gallop.. or Touch Gold... I can go on and on.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Well,we are due for a T. C. Winner. I do know if he doesn't want the full 12f, then he we be found out. I think, compared to the tracks he has been running on, this actually will feel like a mile and 3/4 race. He may want that, and he may not. The fact that Jazil looked like did(against horses he already faced in the Derby) should show you how different it is from the other 2 legs. Certain horses either adore the surface, or the distance. People don't realize some really like the change to this surface.

[Better Than Honour]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Well,we are due for a T. C. Winner. I do know if he doesn't want the full 12f, then he we be found out. I think, compared to the tracks he has been running on, this actually will feel like a mile and 3/4 race. He may want that, and he may not. The fact that Jazil looked like did(against horses he already faced in the Derby) should show you how different it is from the other 2 legs. Certain horses either adore the surface, or the distance. People don't realize some really like the change to this surface.

I love Jazil but the reason he won is because he was the only horse capable of running the 12f. The 95 beyer was incredibly slow but the pedigree usually wins out in the belmont.

[pgiaco]

Who is going to make Big Brown run for more than maybe 3 furlongs of the Belmont? Certainly no one we've seen so far, and if you say Casino Drive will press him from when they kick it I will puke.