Betting the Preakness

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by jms62

Sorry Scav but I respectfully disagree. It is basic economics of risk... I think we agree that his highest value would be as a Triple Crown winner... Whoever is buying in would be taking a lot less risk if he were 2/3 of the way there and it would be reflected in the price they pay... If the deal were done today, the buyers are assuming the risk that BB never wins another race so they basically will get a lightly raced derby winner with 3 lifetime wins and a history of physical issues... It would be interesting to see if the numbers are in the Smarty Jones territory. I think that would be a decent gauge as to the value of a Derby winner vs the value of a Derby/Preakness winner.

I can see both sides, but I feel like a Preakness win does not necessarily inflate the horse's value all that much. With a horse like BB, after his Derby performance, a Preakness victory is expected, so its not like he'll be going above and beyond what everyone expects on Saturday. Now a TC win, or a Belmont score, that's a different animal.

[DogsUp]

I am far from an expert on Stud purchases. In my opinion, BB has already won on turf, won the Florida Derby and KY Derby so I highly doubt that his value would go up just because of a victory in the Preakness. There has to be some sort of ceiling to his value even if he goes on to win the TC. And I can only guess that they buyers and sellers are already at that ceiling or extremely close to it.