Biancone, cold with 2 year olds, my theory why

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Hmmmmm... I was kind of wondering the same thing, because I have been betting all of his babies wondering when he will heat up. Very interesting theory, and you might be dead on. I hope you are, because it's an angle I'm going to follow.

Da Hoss, in about ten minutes the offical polytrack cheeleader will come on and bash me, I don't care. I didn't set out last night to bash polytrack, I set out to do a thorough review and explore some angles and possible theories and explanations about what had been going on up here.
Biancone's babies have abeen shockingly awful. One thing guys who follow patrick know is that his babies NEVER have a shortage of speed, to dsay the least. Other than City Snitch(who got this ball rolling in my head when i noted he also was beaten at a short price in his debut, but obviously had a tightener race in that effort and then importantly worked up here after that race instead of Turfway) his babies have been atrocious. I mean the closet he came was with a 750 grand two year old in training purchase who lost a NY bred race, ouch. I got to looking at the pattern of their works and saw that the Poly had to be the answer. Its the only thing hes done differently. I'm willing to bet strongly that as the meet goes on that some of those disappointing firsters come back and fire 2nd time out and that some of his future firsters who have had 2-3 works up here will run much better than the firsters who came straight off polytrack.

[Scav]

Training track is about two seconds slower, workout wise right?

Originally Posted by Scav

Training track is about two seconds slower, workout wise right?

Correct Scav.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Correct Scav.

I knew it, that f'n Zito worked that Grand Slam colt(3 horse) the other day 49.6 and I looked at it a split second and passed, played a couple horses that are still running.....Still salty about this one

[ceejay]

Interesting analysis, Oracle.

[Nostradamus]

This is just somebody who doesn't like polytrack. City Snitch won because he was a very good horse with a race under his belt, not because he went up to Oklahoma. There are a million reasons why he might not be doing as well with two year old first starters (if that is even factually correct). The weather has been 90 degrees the entire meet and the track surface has been all over the place. He might just have two year olds that haven't liked the weather or he might have learned a lesson that getting 2yr olds cranked up for their first start is moronic. I see Pletcher has had a ton of success in the classic races with this brilliant way of training. Asmussen too.

If you bet on heavy favorite 2yr old horses at Saratoga you are insane.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Nostradamus

This is just somebody who doesn't like polytrack. City Snitch won because he was a very good horse with a race under his belt, not because he went up to Oklahoma. There are a million reasons why he might not be doing as well with two year old first starters (if that is even factually correct). The weather has been 90 degrees the entire meet and the track surface has been all over the place. He might just have two year olds that haven't liked the weather or he might have learned a lesson that getting 2yr olds cranked up for their first start is moronic. I see Pletcher has had a ton of success in the classic races with this brilliant way of training. Asmussen too.

If you bet on heavy favorite 2yr old horses at Saratoga you are insane.

Did somebody say something??


Something else to consider is how speed has been playing at Saratoga so far, it appears to me that speed is not holding up that well(most of the time). If Biancone's babies are all speed demons, that could be another factor for why he's not succeeding this year with 2yos.

[jpops757]

I have noticed after a strong start with his 2yr old ,Assmusen has tailed of a he is bringing some of thers from TP also. I havent looked at all of them but I remember several and Oras post sure does make sense.

This was something that I noticed during Churchill's summer meet. Horses would train at Turfway on the Polytrack and then not run very well at Churchill.

[JJP]

Interesting angle. But isn't it possible that maybe there's some sort of virus going thru Biancone's barn? Maybe nothing serious but we see how streaky some trainers get.

It also should be pointed out that trainers like Romans and others were doing quite well at CD and Kee when shipping in from TP off the Polytrack workouts. Also isn't it possible that Biancone's horses may be better when the distances get longer since so many of them are classicly bred?

[Nostradamus]

Originally Posted by JJP

Interesting angle. But isn't it possible that maybe there's some sort of virus going thru Biancone's barn? Maybe nothing serious but we see how streaky some trainers get.

It also should be pointed out that trainers like Romans and others were doing quite well at CD and Kee when shipping in from TP off the Polytrack workouts. Also isn't it possible that Biancone's horses may be better when the distances get longer since so many of them are classicly bred?

There are a million reasons but polytrack isn't one. Horses do just fine going from poly to dirt, as you pointed out. They just don't like polytrack and they worship Saratoga. Keeneland, and probably Del Mar and Churchill are going poly and they are trying to make their great NY tracks out to be something special.

Who cares about the horses being safer on poly though as long as Saratoga stays dirt. Screw the horses. LOL

[kenny p]

Oracle, First, another thanks for Cotton Blossoms. Your thread on Biancone is very interesting. I will be paying close attention to his 2 yr olds from here on in. Guys like you and Steve clue me in to things I would not have seen myself. All part of a never ending education. Thanks KP

[timmgirvan]

Nice work,Big-O!

[2 Dollar Bill]

Very Nice Thread.. and some Wonderful ideas & thoughts... I know that in (our Spa Contest) I have played each of his 2 year olds.. and keep looking for one to win.. He is getting bet, so the public likes his young horses. There are soooooo many questions about the poly track, and just another thing to think about when you read the form. Thank you for sharing your thoughts & I'll keep in my mind your thoughts about second time starters.. who may pay a price !

[SentToStud]

Great theory.

Be interesting to look at the winter Turfway meet. Check to see if Firsters and Lay-Off horses won at a FAR less-than-expected rate. That would tend to confirm the hypothesis.

My laboratory is already running at capacity. Who's got time? Anyone house-bound due to recent surgery?

[SentToStud]

Last thought..... how in the world can scientists clone goats and not be able to find a way for horses to run safely on dirt?

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Last thought..... how in the world can scientists clone goats and not be able to find a way for horses to run safely on dirt?

They can. Euro can bash me all he wants about hearsay but I can give you ten names that most would recognize in the business who have all said that these tracks could just lay down a safe dirt surface for less money than polyjunk. Bottom line is that polytrack is nothing but a marketing ploy, nothing more nor less. Look at size of the contracts involved. And of course noone who helps land a contract for a company is ever gonna get a christmas card stuffed with bills or a no show job down the road will they? Nah, no way that could happen.
Bottom line is that its not a suitable replacement for dirt racing and not everyone is ready to toss in the towel on hundereds of years of breeding and just start over again with the breed to try and breed horses who excel on wax coated tire shreds. Its a joke really.

I was always indifferent on the polytrack debate... I dont consider myself informed enough on the surface to have a true opinion. But after reading this, it def becomes an intriguing topic. Very interesting Oracle.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by oracle80

They can. Euro can bash me all he wants about hearsay but I can give you ten names that most would recognize in the business who have all said that these tracks could just lay down a safe dirt surface for less money than polyjunk. Bottom line is that polytrack is nothing but a marketing ploy, nothing more nor less. Look at size of the contracts involved. And of course noone who helps land a contract for a company is ever gonna get a christmas card stuffed with bills or a no show job down the road will they? Nah, no way that could happen.
Bottom line is that its not a suitable replacement for dirt racing and not everyone is ready to toss in the towel on hundereds of years of breeding and just start over again with the breed to try and breed horses who excel on wax coated tire shreds. Its a joke really.

What's the difference in maintenance costs on Polytrack vs. dirt? Is there any data on that yet?

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by oracle80

They can. Euro can bash me all he wants about hearsay but I can give you ten names that most would recognize in the business who have all said that these tracks could just lay down a safe dirt surface for less money than polyjunk. Bottom line is that polytrack is nothing but a marketing ploy, nothing more nor less. Look at size of the contracts involved. And of course noone who helps land a contract for a company is ever gonna get a christmas card stuffed with bills or a no show job down the road will they? Nah, no way that could happen.
Bottom line is that its not a suitable replacement for dirt racing and not everyone is ready to toss in the towel on hundereds of years of breeding and just start over again with the breed to try and breed horses who excel on wax coated tire shreds. Its a joke really.

Why not just stop the breeding practices that have made our horses so fragile? Then they could probably run on asphalt and jump over cars while racing.