Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 05-12-2008, 09:19 AM
Coach Pants
 
Posts: n/a
Default

So if a trainer goes on a losing streak to drop the win % to 30%-35% that automatically clears him of any wrongdoing.

Fantastic logic. D'awesome. I want a whaaamburger happy meal with the MAC eyeliner prize.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 05-12-2008, 09:30 AM
brianwspencer's Avatar
brianwspencer brianwspencer is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 4,894
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Pants
So if a trainer goes on a losing streak to drop the win % to 30%-35% that automatically clears him of any wrongdoing.

Fantastic logic. D'awesome. I want a whaaamburger happy meal with the MAC eyeliner prize.
Right, because your logic is the one where you take one line out of a post and try to make it all that I said.

If you're paying any attention, these horses would be 8-5 regardless of their trainer in about 80% of his wins so far, and he's got fresh stock and recent acquisitions from OP and Kee that fit these conditioned races perfectly. Forget Block, give them to Williamson, Robertson (either one) and they win just as often; hell, give them to Ida Spagnola and they still win at 50%.

Which...you would know if you:
1.) paid any attention
2.) had any desire to actually have a conversation, instead of just going with the usual M.O. of just being a prick and offering nothing of substance.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 05-12-2008, 09:31 AM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
Right, because your logic is the one where you take one line out of a post and try to make it all that I said.

If you're paying any attention, these horses would be 8-5 regardless of their trainer in about 80% of his wins so far, and he's got fresh stock and recent acquisitions from OP and Kee that fit these conditioned races perfectly. Forget Block, give them to Williamson, Robertson (either one) and they win just as often; hell, give them to Ida Spagnola and they still win at 50%.

Which...you would know if you:
1.) paid any attention
2.) had any desire to actually have a conversation, instead of just going with the usual M.O. of just being a prick and offering nothing of substance.
Ok, now you are off your rocker.....
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 05-12-2008, 09:34 AM
brianwspencer's Avatar
brianwspencer brianwspencer is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 4,894
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Ok, now you are off your rocker.....
Ok, maybe Spagnola is a bit too far, but it's not like Catalano is moving these horses up 20 points and winning races that most trainers WOULDN'T be winning in the first place. The majority of these horses are several lengths faster than their competition, and were several lengths faster then their competition before Catalano even got them.

So when they win by several lengths because they're put in easy spots where they're several lengths the best, it's really hard for me to have sympathy for anyone who wants to complain.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 05-12-2008, 09:48 AM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
Ok, maybe Spagnola is a bit too far, but it's not like Catalano is moving these horses up 20 points and winning races that most trainers WOULDN'T be winning in the first place. The majority of these horses are several lengths faster than their competition, and were several lengths faster then their competition before Catalano even got them.

So when they win by several lengths because they're put in easy spots where they're several lengths the best, it's really hard for me to have sympathy for anyone who wants to complain.
You don't have to tell me this, I agree. If I didn't know how they do things, then I would be thinking they are cheating, but I understand the operation. The guy that 'runs the show' is a pretty sharp claiming guy.

I don't think they are saints though, but they aren't Asmussen or Dutrow
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 05-12-2008, 10:14 AM
ArlJim78 ArlJim78 is offline
Newmarket
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 6,549
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
You don't have to tell me this, I agree. If I didn't know how they do things, then I would be thinking they are cheating, but I understand the operation. The guy that 'runs the show' is a pretty sharp claiming guy.
he is the brains of the outfit thats for sure. i sometimes wonder how well they would do without him.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 05-12-2008, 10:18 AM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
he is the brains of the outfit thats for sure. i sometimes wonder how well they would do without him.
Leving is his name I think, he gets fired like monthly
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 05-12-2008, 10:20 AM
Coach Pants
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Thomas M. Amoss $2,018,748 32%
Basically did at FG what Catalano does in Chicago.
W. Bret Calhoun $1,745,865 30%
This guy has always been suspect
Jamie Ness $1,129,774 35%
Same with this one
Stephanie S. Beattie $941,075 37%
Don't get me started
Brian A. Lynch $903,821 33%
Stronach's b.itch. Check the win percentage at non-Magna tracks.

The others have ridiculously high win percentages and he SMOKES them. It's not even close. It's outlandish. It's like Jesus is his co-pilot.



Wayne M. Catalano $849,249 43%

Holy s.hit!! He's the best trainer in America!!!
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 05-12-2008, 09:36 AM
Coach Pants
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
Right, because your logic is the one where you take one line out of a post and try to make it all that I said.

If you're paying any attention, these horses would be 8-5 regardless of their trainer in about 80% of his wins so far, and he's got fresh stock and recent acquisitions from OP and Kee that fit these conditioned races perfectly. Forget Block, give them to Williamson, Robertson (either one) and they win just as often; hell, give them to Ida Spagnola and they still win at 50%.

Which...you would know if you:
1.) paid any attention
2.) had any desire to actually have a conversation, instead of just going with the usual M.O. of just being a prick and offering nothing of substance.
Well I've never been in one of those handicapping qualifiers so I don't have the capacity to be a know-it-all douche yet.

There is no need to go into great detail over this subject because you would have to be a complete and total ****** to believe that the high win percentage is simply by reading a condition book properly and placing horses in the right races. If that was the case, why doesn't it happen when they're in Florida, genius?
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 05-12-2008, 09:39 AM
brianwspencer's Avatar
brianwspencer brianwspencer is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 4,894
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Well I've never been in one of those handicapping qualifiers so I don't have the capacity to be a know-it-all douche yet.

There is no need to go into great detail over this subject because you would have to be a complete and total ****** to believe that the high win percentage is simply by reading a condition book properly and placing horses in the right races. If that was the case, why doesn't it happen when they're in Florida, genius?
Well that makes one person in the country who thinks that Arlington racing is as classy as Florida racing....genius.

You again (intentionally, I'm sure) overlooked the portion about how the beginning of the Arlington meet is just a slightly classier Hawthorne meet. So either you're not actually watching Arlington and following it to know that, or you're clueless as to the class level of racing in Chicago and the quality of stock up here.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 05-12-2008, 09:58 AM
Coach Pants
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
Well that makes one person in the country who thinks that Arlington racing is as classy as Florida racing....genius.

You again (intentionally, I'm sure) overlooked the portion about how the beginning of the Arlington meet is just a slightly classier Hawthorne meet. So either you're not actually watching Arlington and following it to know that, or you're clueless as to the class level of racing in Chicago and the quality of stock up here.
Oh yeah I forgot that Gulfstream was a tremendous meet this year with very little bottom level claiming races. STUPID, CLUELESS ME!!!

It's just odd how they win at such an extreme clip in their backyard and how it drops dramatically when they go ANYWHERE else. I guess it's because they're smarter than every owner and trainer in Chicago. That's the only reason.

YET you have the audacity to say give their stock to about any trainer on the Chicago circuit and they would win with at least a 50% clip when the GOD DAMN numbers when their horses are claimed ARE SINGLE DIGITS.

JESUSTAPDANCINGCHRIST PEOPLE ARE ****ING NAIVE
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 05-12-2008, 10:02 AM
jwkniska's Avatar
jwkniska jwkniska is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Mt. Prospect, IL (AP)
Posts: 1,578
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Oh yeah I forgot that Gulfstream was a tremendous meet this year with very little bottom level claiming races. STUPID, CLUELESS ME!!!

It's just odd how they win at such an extreme clip in their backyard and how it drops dramatically when they go ANYWHERE else. I guess it's because they're smarter than every owner and trainer in Chicago. That's the only reason.

YET you have the audacity to say give their stock to about any trainer on the Chicago circuit and they would win with at least a 50% clip when the GOD DAMN numbers when their horses are claimed ARE SINGLE DIGITS.

JESUSTAPDANCINGCHRIST PEOPLE ARE ****ING NAIVE
I'm not sure exactly what their Keeneland/GP numbers are, but they run only certain horses there and they're also always viable to win, when entered.... and normally at a pretty good price too.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 05-12-2008, 10:04 AM
brianwspencer's Avatar
brianwspencer brianwspencer is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 4,894
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Oh yeah I forgot that Gulfstream was a tremendous meet this year with very little bottom level claiming races. STUPID, CLUELESS ME!!!

It's just odd how they win at such an extreme clip in their backyard and how it drops dramatically when they go ANYWHERE else. I guess it's because they're smarter than every owner and trainer in Chicago. That's the only reason.

YET you have the audacity to say give their stock to about any trainer on the Chicago circuit and they would win with at least a 50% clip when the GOD DAMN numbers when their horses are claimed ARE SINGLE DIGITS.

JESUSTAPDANCINGCHRIST PEOPLE ARE ****ING NAIVE
You go tell me who they're beating that they shouldn't be beating.

So far, they've won, in order:
- An off the turf overnight stake (which eliminated the competitive form of nearly all the field) with a horse who had already won a Grade III over the track
- $10K claimer
- $40K maiden claimer
- $15K claimer
- $7.5K claimer
- $10K claimer
- $14K claimer
- $25K maiden claimer
- $32.5K claimer
- $10K claimer
- AOC $50K claimer
- $25K claimer

Very, very, very tough, as I'm sure you know, to win these types of races with horses coming off very competitive efforts at Keeneland and Oaklawn, when then stacked up against horses coming off of efforts at Hawthorne.

I am totally missing the point...obviously.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 05-12-2008, 10:46 AM
miraja2's Avatar
miraja2 miraja2 is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 4,157
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Pants
YET you have the audacity to say give their stock to about any trainer on the Chicago circuit and they would win with at least a 50% clip when the GOD DAMN numbers when their horses are claimed ARE SINGLE DIGITS. JESUSTAPDANCINGCHRIST PEOPLE ARE ****ING NAIVE
This is true, but as Brian and others have pointed out, Catalano often drops a horse in class, wins the race, and loses the horse. Then the animal is often moved up in class with new connections in its next start. This is a big reason for the low % when one of their's gets claimed.

I dont know the answer to the question of what exactly they get away with here. Would I be shocked to learn that they have engaged in widespread activities that circumvented the rules? Absolutely not. But I don't think that it is completely outrageous (or naive) to point to their strategy in the claiming game as a BIG factor in their hig win %. Is it the only factor? Perhaps not, but I don't think we really know for sure.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 05-12-2008, 01:54 PM
Split Rock Split Rock is offline
Tropical Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 263
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by miraja2
This is true, but as Brian and others have pointed out, Catalano often drops a horse in class, wins the race, and loses the horse. Then the animal is often moved up in class with new connections in its next start. This is a big reason for the low % when one of their's gets claimed.
I dont know the answer to the question of what exactly they get away with here. Would I be shocked to learn that they have engaged in widespread activities that circumvented the rules? Absolutely not. But I don't think that it is completely outrageous (or naive) to point to their strategy in the claiming game as a BIG factor in their hig win %. Is it the only factor? Perhaps not, but I don't think we really know for sure.
Absolutely untrue. I did the research. Most often, the horses that were claimed from Catalano had to drop down dramatically in order to win. Not to mention, many and I mean many, of the claims from this guy had 1 or 2 starts and were laid off. Many didn't come back at all.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 05-12-2008, 10:01 AM
PSH's Avatar
PSH PSH is offline
Hollywood Park
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Mill Valley, CA
Posts: 914
Default Number of horses

I asked this same question a couple of years ago about the so called "Super Trainers" like Dutrow, Contessa (would also apply today), and the answer i received which makes some sense is that these trainers have so much stock that they generally have multiple horses that they can apply to different races in the condition book. So, they generally have choices on which horses that they can drop down in the claiming races whereby the average trainer generally either has one option or zero....

Given the huge amount of stock that these trainers have gives them a big advantage. Say, "Supertrainer" sees a race for 25K claimers in a certain condition they can choose whether to drop down a 30K, 35K or 40K claimer into that particular spot....

Not saying that something else isn't going on, but the math of sheer numbers gives these guys a huge advantage.

PSH
__________________
"Everybody's honest, when they can afford to be."
Benny Binion
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:17 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.