Big Brown Beyer 109

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

For what it's worth, here are Dr Roman's Performance Figures (I have used these the past 10 years as they seem to me much more accurate than Beyer numbers), they do take into account aspects of the trip not considered by Beyer...the lower the number, the better:
2008 Derby:
Big Brown...-68
Eight Belles...-51
Denis of Cork...-34
2007 Derby:
Street Sense...-52
Hard Spun...-49
Curlin...-29
Also, here are the PF's for the last 10 winners:
2008...Big Brown...-68
2007...Street Sense...-52
2006...Barbaro...-60
2005...Giacomo...-48
2004...Smarty Jones...-63
2003...Funny Cide...-60
2002...War Emblem...-61
2001...Monarchos...-75
2000...FuPeg...-57
1999...Charismatic...-48
Obviously, Dr Roman's figures contradict the notion that this is a bad group, except for Monarchos who absolutely freaked in the 2001 Derby, Big Brown stands above recent winners. Time will tell but for a horse to get such a number in only his fourth lifetime start would seem to indicate that his PF's will continue to increase. Every year, I hear "this is a crappy crop of three year olds"...especially after a horse such as Barbaro, Smarty Jones and Big Brown romp in the Derby...of course it's way too early to judge and as Kasept pointed out, many Derby horses were that in name only as their connections caught "Derby fever" as some do every year. Once they sort themselves out, some will be turf horses, sprinters and yes...like almost every year, claimers, while "new faces" will appear to challenge...I look forward to the Preakness and the next wave of contenders. But if he stays healthy...Big Brown will be something special, as a fan, I can only dream of him and Curlin facing off sometime down the road. I know recent history indicates this may never happen but that's the beauty of this sport...the possibilities!

i never heard the barbaro crop described as weak. that's why he got so many kudos, because he beat a very deep, very contentious field.

unlike the one this year. but for years, everyone said that in a year with one 'standout' in a year of bad horses, the tc could be won. this might be the year.
might

oh, and absolutely a race between curlin and big brown. make it a prep for the breeders cup, only call it the cheaters cup.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i never heard the barbaro crop described as weak. that's why he got so many kudos, because he beat a very deep, very contentious field.

Who exactly stood out in that field?

[Danzig]

leading up to that derby, everyone said it was the deepest in years. and then barbaro beat them hands down.
sorry if it doesn't jibe with your opinion fat man, it's just what everyone was writing and saying, trainers, owners, sportswriters, etc. and keep in mind, this was in the weeks leading up to that derby. obviously last years was also a deep crop, but they weren't around when barbaros was being written about.

[cmorioles]

Looking back, it pretty much stunk outside of Lawyer Ron. He didn't really get good until Pletcher got him later on in his career.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Looking back, it pretty much stunk outside of Lawyer Ron. He didn't really get good until Pletcher got him later on in his career.

exactly, Lawyer Ron did not break through until his 4yo year.

[ateamstupid]

Regardless of whether or not the '06 crop panned out, it sure as hell looked a lot better GOING INTO THE DERBY.

Here are the PP's from the '06 Derby:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...yderby_pps.pdf

You're telling me that field doesn't look VASTLY superior to this year's, based on what they did before the Derby?

[cmorioles]

I think if all tracks were dirt this year they would have looked pretty much the same, though I guess Sweetnorthernsaint looked OK. Boy did he fall off.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Regardless of whether or not the '06 crop panned out, it sure as hell looked a lot better GOING INTO THE DERBY.

Here are the PP's from the '06 Derby:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...yderby_pps.pdf

You're telling me that field doesn't look VASTLY superior to this year's, based on what they did before the Derby?

no question about it, that field had much more appeal than this last one.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Regardless of whether or not the '06 crop panned out, it sure as hell looked a lot better GOING INTO THE DERBY.

Here are the PP's from the '06 Derby:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...yderby_pps.pdf

You're telling me that field doesn't look VASTLY superior to this year's, based on what they did before the Derby?

thanks, the point i was trying to convey. barbaro got tons of respect from that race, he trounced that field.