Big Brown Beyer 109

[philcski]

Hmmm... again, another massaged group of Beyer numbers from Friday's Oaks. No way the Giant Gizmo # should be higher than Proud Spell's, on raw time she was 2 lengths faster (unless Giant Gizmo could miraculously run a final 1/16th in 6 seconds flat), and one could argue the track was in even worse shape and slower by the Oaks than the Alysheba.

[HaloWishingwell]

Besides the numbers, without BB the filly dusts this field. Unless something miraculously happens this crop needs to hit the claing ranks ,poly,grass or make up some phony injury and retire fast before they embarrass themselves further.

[10 pnt move up]

So Big Brown had a nightmare trip of ground loss on both turns, close to a solid pace, yet improved 3 points over his Florida Derby effort? Don't buy it, he is a 104-106 type horse running against a really bad bunch.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

So Big Brown had a nightmare trip of ground loss on both turns, close to a solid pace, yet improved 3 points over his Florida Derby effort? Don't buy it, he is a 104-106 type horse running against a really bad bunch.

Ground loss is not relevant in BSF's...

You decided he's a "104-106 type horse' (whatever that is supposed to be) based on 2 dirt track starts? His 2nd and 3rd career starts overall? And he has that fixed ceiling? 104-106? That's not exactly how horses, especially in the spring of their 2 year old year, develop.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Ground loss is not relevant in BSF's...

You decided he's a "104-106 type horse' (whatever that is supposed to be) based on 2 dirt track starts? His 2nd and 3rd career starts overall? And he has that fixed ceiling? 104-106? That's not exactly how horses, especially in the spring of their 2 year old year, develop.

I know ground loss is not relevent but a horse loses that much ground it gets much harder to run a career top at 10 furlongs....at least that is my thinking. He should have got a 104, I give him a bit of a trip so I can see him around 106 for this type of race.

He is beatable if a horse like Harlem Rocker shows up and improves of his last. Big Brown is not as good a horse as street sense if you ask me at this point.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

He is beatable if a horse like Harlem Rocker shows up and improves of his last. Big Brown is not as good a horse as street sense if you ask me at this point.

^^^ I pretty much agree with that... If hooked with Kentucky Bear and Harlem Rocker, it will get mighty interesting.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I know ground loss is not relevent but a horse loses that much ground it gets much harder to run a career top at 10 furlongs....at least that is my thinking. He should have got a 104, I give him a bit of a trip so I can see him around 106 for this type of race.

He is beatable if a horse like Harlem Rocker shows up and improves of his last. Big Brown is not as good a horse as street sense if you ask me at this point.

Originally Posted by Kasept

^^^ I pretty much agree with that... If hooked with Kentucky Bear and Harlem Rocker, it will get mighty interesting.

Agree with both of you on the Harlem Rocker statement. He is a serious horse, maybe the only other one in this whole crop (Kentucky Bear I have an affinity for but he's not the talent of these two... I don't think he is, at least).

As stated above, this number was fabricated to fit better. His real performances, if taken in the context of how Beyer ORIGINALLY intended them to be created would have been 104, 113, 104 (and the turf race debut would have been MUCH, MUCH higher than the 90 it was assigned).

[HaloWishingwell]

it's not a point if he's as good as STREET SENSE but what in his crop is as good? He proved he doesn't need the lead or hooked to run his race. It's a matter if his feet can hold up two weeks after this race if that's not an issue then it a matter if his gate doesn't open up against this bunch.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by Kasept

^^^ I pretty much agree with that... If hooked with Kentucky Bear and Harlem Rocker, it will get mighty interesting.

.....wow, this horse HAS PAID WORKOUTS...... he in my opinoin a better horse than streat sense.......

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by philcski

Hmmm... again, another massaged group of Beyer numbers from Friday's Oaks. No way the Giant Gizmo # should be higher than Proud Spell's, on raw time she was 2 lengths faster (unless Giant Gizmo could miraculously run a final 1/16th in 6 seconds flat), and one could argue the track was in even worse shape and slower by the Oaks than the Alysheba.

I was going to bring that up as well...Proud Spell should have gotten higher than a 99.

[freddymo]

Steve this crop flat out stinks. Big Brown is a very nice colt and certainly has a license to move forward...Although this retarded Preakness isn't goint to do a thing for him.. The colt has raced 4 times unfortunately he has raced against no one so who really knows what he is made of. I suggest we won't no the colts true ability till he try older more accomplished company as he cant race against his best 3 year old peers since they will be in the Acorn Coaching Club and Alabama..lol

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Steve this crop flat out stinks. Big Brown is a very nice colt and certainly has a license to move forward...Although this retarded Preakness isn't goint to do a thing for him.. The colt has raced 4 times unfortunately he has raced against no one so who really knows what he is made of. I suggest we won't no the colts true ability till he try older more accomplished company as he cant race against his best 3 year old peers since they will be in the Acorn Coaching Club and Alabama..lol

I think it's the first time I've heard a race referred to as retarded.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

I think it's the first time I've heard a race referred to as retarded.

Just the timing is so counterproductive

[Kasept]

Fred..

I know.. But.. it always pays to wait until the fall to get a true read. Harlem Rocker, Lt. Ron, KY Bear, other lightly-raced types we haven't seen... give them a chance to race themselves into the picture.

And remember that the unprecocious Mineshafts and Empire Makers should continue to get better as they mature. (Which would be a good thing as it would preclude them returning as older horses, etc...)

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Fred..

I know.. But.. it always pays to wait until the fall to get a true read. Harlem Rocker, Lt. Ron, KY Bear, other lightly-raced types we haven't seen... give them a chance to race themselves into the picture.

And remember that the unprecocious Mineshafts and Empire Makers should continue to get better as they mature. (Which would be a good thing as it would preclude them returning as older horses, etc...)

Don't for get about Keep Laughing and Hatta Fort.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Fred..

I know.. But.. it always pays to wait until the fall to get a true read. Harlem Rocker, Lt. Ron, KY Bear, other lightly-raced types we haven't seen... give them a chance to race themselves into the picture.

And remember that the unprecocious Mineshafts and Empire Makers should continue to get better as they mature. (Which would be a good thing as it would preclude them returning as older horses, etc...)

good luck with the Mineshafts and iI would think Empire Maker is much more of a turf stallion then dirt. EM was bred to mostly turf producers and turf performers.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I was going to bring that up as well...Proud Spell should have gotten higher than a 99.

Sounds like the Beyer guys blew the 2 big races.

[AlexP]

It does seem odd to me that Proud Spell only got a 99, even though I don't know much about Beyers (her race to me was better than Zaftig's, even though I love both fillies, and it would seem she should get at least the same figure...they were relatively close at least). However, I do have one question. Someone was saying with the bad trip and ground loss (which Steve then said doesn't factor in) Big Brown should have gotten a lower figure. To me, if a horse has a bad trip/goes against a bias/etc (those don't all apply to BB obviously), shouldn't his Beyer be higher than a horse that had a great trip/was with the bias/etc?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by AlexP

It does seem odd to me that Proud Spell only got a 99, even though I don't know much about Beyers (her race to me was better than Zaftig's, even though I love both fillies, and it would seem she should get at least the same figure...they were relatively close at least). However, I do have one question. Someone was saying with the bad trip and ground loss (which Steve then said doesn't factor in) Big Brown should have gotten a lower figure. To me, if a horse has a bad trip/goes against a bias/etc (those don't all apply to BB obviously), shouldn't his Beyer be higher than a horse that had a great trip/was with the bias/etc?

That isn't the way Beyers work. They are based directly on raw time related to the speed of the track, not on trip. In this case the figure should have been 104. If they weren't confident enough in the 109 to adjust the other two races 5 points upward then they should have stuck with 104. I don't like splits to improve a figure by 5 points at all.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Sounds like the Beyer guys blew the 2 big races.

For what it's worth, here are Dr Roman's Performance Figures (I have used these the past 10 years as they seem to me much more accurate than Beyer numbers), they do take into account aspects of the trip not considered by Beyer...the lower the number, the better:
2008 Derby:
Big Brown...-68
Eight Belles...-51
Denis of Cork...-34
2007 Derby:
Street Sense...-52
Hard Spun...-49
Curlin...-29
Also, here are the PF's for the last 10 winners:
2008...Big Brown...-68
2007...Street Sense...-52
2006...Barbaro...-60
2005...Giacomo...-48
2004...Smarty Jones...-63
2003...Funny Cide...-60
2002...War Emblem...-61
2001...Monarchos...-75
2000...FuPeg...-57
1999...Charismatic...-48
Obviously, Dr Roman's figures contradict the notion that this is a bad group, except for Monarchos who absolutely freaked in the 2001 Derby, Big Brown stands above recent winners. Time will tell but for a horse to get such a number in only his fourth lifetime start would seem to indicate that his PF's will continue to increase. Every year, I hear "this is a crappy crop of three year olds"...especially after a horse such as Barbaro, Smarty Jones and Big Brown romp in the Derby...of course it's way too early to judge and as Kasept pointed out, many Derby horses were that in name only as their connections caught "Derby fever" as some do every year. Once they sort themselves out, some will be turf horses, sprinters and yes...like almost every year, claimers, while "new faces" will appear to challenge...I look forward to the Preakness and the next wave of contenders. But if he stays healthy...Big Brown will be something special, as a fan, I can only dream of him and Curlin facing off sometime down the road. I know recent history indicates this may never happen but that's the beauty of this sport...the possibilities!