Eight Belles form

[cmorioles]

DrugS,

Didn't you post this earlier? I would swear I've read this exact same thing before somewhere. Deja vu?

I actually gave her a 105 speed figure on turn around day.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yeah - I probably did post something about it earlier.

A few people also commented to me about how radical the form reversal was when they first saw it - two of which who post here (IC and BTW)

At a time when you hear rumors about exotic pain killing drugs that they don't have tests for - like the stuff Biancone got caught possessing - it just makes you wonder a little when you see a horse improve 13 lengths on figures in the span of a month, hold the form, and than run until collapsing from ankle fractures in both front legs.

Maybe something was bothering her a little when she stunk - she was given something that cured what was bothering her - and it allowed her to run hard at an extremely high level. Not being able to feel the pain isn't always a good thing.

Perhaps I am just way to jaded for even having a thought like that. I don't know.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yeah - I probably did post something about it earlier.

A few people also commented to me about how radical the form reversal was when they first saw it - two of which who post here (IC and BTW)

At a time when you hear rumors about exotic pain killing drugs that they don't have tests for - like the stuff Biancone got caught possessing - it just makes you wonder a little when you see a horse improve 13 lengths on figures in the span of a month, hold the form, and than run until collapsing from ankle fractures in both front legs.

Maybe something was bothering her a little when she stunk - she was given something that cured what was bothering her - and it allowed her to run hard at an extremely high level. Not being able to feel the pain isn't always a good thing.

Perhaps I am just way to jaded for even having a thought like that. I don't know.

Even if it is a jaded way of thinking, it is also, in turn, a very realistic way of thinking.

Well the lazy thing to do is blame it on the surface. That way the problem will be fixed with a generic band-aid (synthetic) until the vets come up with a drug that's 10x more numbing than the ones used today.

[CSC]

Interesting stuff, however I don't think it is an isolated case. I wonder if someone can pull up Charismatic's form page. I remember his form improved after the Lexington after a cluster of mediocre races. Wonder what Lukas did there if anything to change this guy's form.

[Danzig]

i know lukas said he came to the realization he was training charismatic wrong-that when he changed his approach, the horse changed his ways. of course anyone who wishes to be a dwl detractor would say otherwise....

[horseofcourse]

Just looking through the Beyers she went on a 53, 67, 74, 78 progression through 12/23 as a 2 year old tossing the 11/30 race. She did not change leads in the stretch as a 2 year old even on 12/23. Would an 85-90 Beyer in her next start have been an ok progression or believable?? Granted 100 was a huge jump. I'm not sure if I would consider it a potential magic potion drug being given to her. Of course it's possible. I know the preferred method of running is changing to your right lead in the stretch and she did it perfectly all 5 of her starts in 2008 when she absolutely did not do that in 2007. I would attribute that development in her to at least a few Beyer points perhaps in her magic jump to 100 combined with just continued progression from her 2 yr old improvement pattern combined with maturity and growing a bit into her massive frame.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

Interesting stuff, however I don't think it is an isolated case. I wonder if someone can pull up Charismatic's form page. I remember his form improved after the Lexington after a cluster of mediocre races. Wonder what Lukas did there if anything to change this guy's form.

Charismatic didn't have one gigantic leap like Eight Belles - but he had two very significant spikes in his form.



You notice the 9 point move up (above his prior top) after he was 2nd in the claiming race - but the scary leap was the 13 point move up (above his prior top) between April 3rd and April 18th.

In the Lexington, which was his 14th career start, Charismatic improved 8.5 lengths over his career best race on figures. He held that form though the entire triple crown series before breaking down after the wire in the Belmont.

I'm always a little suspicous when I see those huge unexpected and unexplainable spikes in form - though the vast majority of them come in situations like with Cantrel (off a layoff and for a new trainer) .. the type of form of a Charismatic and Eight Belles is extremely rare. Huge improvements on firmly established form, while going for the same trainer, without much rest between starts on move-up day.

[pmacdaddy]

I'm usually no conspiracy theorist and usually take breakdowns as an unfortunate part of the game.

I have to admit those PP's really bother me. Maybe there is a good reason they shouldn't, but they do.