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Old 04-23-2008, 04:52 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Split Rock
I posted this on another board but am wondering if anyone on this board can help me here.


Can someone help me with this? I'm more curious than anything.

In the 2nd race at Hollywood Park on Wed, opening day, it was amazingly clear that the #6 Smooth Performer was going to hit the board. So, I decided to calculate potential place and show payoffs with this horse. After calculating, I decided to bet $200 to show on it as the lowest payout would have been $2.60 if both 2nd and 3rd favorites came in with it. I felt one of them wouldnt so the payoff could have gone as high as $3.00.

Anyway, after the race was over, I calculated the show payoff assuming that Hollywood Park's takeout for show was about 23% on the high end.

If it is 23% takeout, the payoffs should have been:
6: $2.70 (reduced to $2.60)
4: $3.30 (reduced to $3.20)
1: $4.10 (reduced to $4.00)

Instead the payoffs were:
6: $2.40
4: $3.00
1: $3.80

The pools were:
Total: $18,588
6: $4923
4: $2595
1: $1638

If anyone is good at these calculations and can explain the difference, I would appreciate it. The only explanation I can see is the track takeout is 27.5% for WPS wagers and that would be robbery, if so.
those pools numbers might ALREADY have the takeout figured in. I know when they are showing the P6 pool, the takeout is already out of those figures, which is how you get 17 cents in the pool or whatever...
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Old 04-23-2008, 05:17 PM
hi_im_god's Avatar
hi_im_god hi_im_god is offline
Arlington Park
 
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Posts: 4,043
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i don't know if this is the reason but i suspect that you haven't calculated in breakage. breakage is the difference between the actual calculated payout and the nearest $.20 in california ($0.10 in other jurisdictions).

if the payout should be $2.29 after the takeout is calculated, the actual payout will be $2.20.
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