Pricing the Derby

[hockey2315]

I refuse to believe that people will be stupid enough to bet down Big Brown to 8-5. Can't wait til he draws post 20.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I refuse to believe that people will be stupid enough to bet down Big Brown to 8-5. Can't wait til he draws post 20.

i think they are...

the connections are so open that they think he is a freak. kent says its the best horse he has ever rode.

pyro ran bad, war pass did not win his last prep.
im telling you i think he could be 8-5, and i'd love that

[SOREHOOF]

Too much $$ in the win pool. Everyone is going to be looking for the next G-Mo to pop at a huge price. He might win but 3-1 is a heavy fav in this race. I hope War Pass goes off that high. If he's not taken seriously enough he might get an easier lead than everyone thinks. It would be easy to take a shot at 15-1. He might even stay around long enough to hit the board. He showed some guts finally in the Wood.

[SOREHOOF]

I like Big Brown. I hope he's higher. I'll have bets with him and without him. I would feel a lot better if he was going to at least have a workout over Churchill before the race.

[hi_im_god]

empire maker was the biggest recent favorite i can recall and he was 5-2.

anyone who thinks there is someone in this field with more steam than him going into the 2003 derby is wrong.

bb is talented and will do big things. but 2 horses out of 56 have won off 2 starts at 3 and both of them had more foundation at 2.

my guess is despite street sense last year, people figure this out.

7-2. maybe even 4-1

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

empire maker was the biggest recent favorite i can recall and he was 5-2.

anyone who thinks there is someone in this field with more steam than him going into the 2003 derby is wrong.

bb is talented and will do big things. but 2 horses out of 56 have won off 2 starts at 3 and both of them had more foundation at 2.

my guess is despite street sense last year, people figure this out.

7-2. maybe even 4-1

I don't really disagree with you, but was the field Empire Maker faced as bad as this one?

[IrishofNDMan]

If War Pass if 15-1 or higher I will atleast take $50 of my derby money and put it on him to win, regardless of the distance ??? I think at those odds it is a good bet.

[SOREHOOF]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

If War Pass if 15-1 or higher I will atleast take $50 of my derby money and put it on him to win, regardless of the distance $$$ I think at those odds it is a good bet.

Absolutely!

[SOREHOOF]

I might be more inclined to single him 3'rd or 4'th in the super. If he doesn't get the lead I don't trust him to come forward, but if he gets the lead I think he might hang on for a share, or maybe win.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I don't really disagree with you, but was the field Empire Maker faced as bad as this one?

i've never seen a year where anyone thought there was a good field.

every year the complaints are the same.

so in terms of perception by those betting in 2003, there isn't much difference.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i've never seen a year where anyone thought there was a good field.

every year the complaints are the same.

so in terms of perception by those betting in 2003, there isn't much difference.

btw: the corollary to this is that after the derby, there is never a year where the winner isn't proclaimed the long awaited next 3crown winner.

we're in the trough now but the wave is coming.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I don't really disagree with you, but was the field Empire Maker faced as bad as this one?

Absolutely not... Empire Maker (foot and all) would be 3/2 against this group. 2003 was actually a pretty good field, off the top of my head their prep achievements-
* Empire Maker won the Fl Derby & Wood in impressive fasion, with 110+ Beyers
* Funny Cide had shown a lot at 2, ran well while wide in La & Fl, before a big run in the Wood with a 109 Beyer
* Peace Rules had won 3 graded stakes already with 105+ Beyers
* Buddy Gil won the SA Derby with a 105+ Beyer
* Ten Most Wanted ran a huge race in the Ill Derby with a 105+ Beyer
* Indian Express ran a big 2nd in the SA Derby
* Atswhatimtalknbout was everyone's wiseguy horse with his crazy closing rushes
* Scrimshaw finished 3rd in Calfornia and won the Lexington with a 107 (i think) Beyer

So the top 5 I listed would DEFINITELY be favored over everyone in this year's KY Derby, save Big Brown. The next 3 would have been no worse than the 2nd or 3rd choice.

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i've never seen a year where anyone thought there was a good field.

every year the complaints are the same.

so in terms of perception by those betting in 2003, there isn't much difference.

Disagree. I have never seen a worse field than this- 1993 was close though. 2003's field absolutely LAYS OVER this one.

[ArlJim78]

lol, it wasn't long ago for my derby handicapping I would separate the contenders from the rest by just looking at horses who had run at least a 105 beyer. lately the benchmark has been more like 100.

This year above 95 gets attention!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

lol, it wasn't long ago for my derby handicapping I would separate the contenders from the rest by just looking at horses who had run at least a 105 beyer. lately the benchmark has been more like 100.

This year above 95 gets attention!

While Beyers/speed figures don't necessarily tell the whole story, it's certainly a logical place to start, and I agree 100%- 105 was the number, then it was 100... this year, 95! There was a pretty hard and fast rule that any horse that hadn't run two 100+ Beyers coming in was a pretty easy toss, only Sea Hero in 25+ years had broken that (and I believe he had a 99 and a 103). Giacomo broke that rule, and this year, ONLY Big Brown even qualifies!!

[wac]

I agree the 03 derby was a really good one. quality all over the place. I swear i think if all goes well with the trainging and he doesnt get a bad post i see BB at 5-2 when they spring the gate. and 2-1 when they get to turn 2 damn that aggravates me so much when that happens. Horses i bet tht win there odds always go down during the running of the race never up. Well i'll take it if its a winner. This weekend was a weird one i knew that pyro wasn't going to win the BG but didn't expect that kind of a performance. There was no reason for the horse to give it all but would like to have seen something. I told my mom who was gonna bet on pyro anyway in KD that was the best thing that could happen as long as he's not hurt. Should bump him up to at least 6-1 when they spring the gates.

[SOREHOOF]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

empire maker was the biggest recent favorite i can recall and he was 5-2.

anyone who thinks there is someone in this field with more steam than him going into the 2003 derby is wrong.

bb is talented and will do big things. but 2 horses out of 56 have won off 2 starts at 3 and both of them had more foundation at 2.

my guess is despite street sense last year, people figure this out.

7-2. maybe even 4-1

That sounds more like it. As more and more horses come in like this more will win and it will be a self fulfilling truth. If all of the horses have only 2 preps, a horse with 2 preps will win.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

empire maker was the biggest recent favorite i can recall and he was 5-2.

anyone who thinks there is someone in this field with more steam than him going into the 2003 derby is wrong.

bb is talented and will do big things. but 2 horses out of 56 have won off 2 starts at 3 and both of them had more foundation at 2.

my guess is despite street sense last year, people figure this out.

7-2. maybe even 4-1

I don't think Big Brown will be higher than 5-2. THere are several reasons; first, Pyro's poor Blue Grass may scare a few of his backers away. Granted, I'm completely dismissing it, but it certainly won't depress his odds. Secondly, we have no idea if Colonel John will handle real dirt. Just because he beat Gayego on the carpet, doesn't mean Colonel John would've won that race yesterday at Oaklawn. Other 3YOs who were highly regarded earlier, like Dennis of Cork and Cool Coal Man, fizzled in their last prep. While Cool Coal Man had an excuse, he did have a perfect trip in the FOY, and Dennis of Cork had a perfect trip when he won the Southwest. So its part of function of Big Brown's domination at GP and the unwillingness of his competition to step up.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by JJP

I don't think Big Brown will be higher than 5-2. THere are several reasons; first, Pyro's poor Blue Grass may scare a few of his backers away. Granted, I'm completely dismissing it, but it certainly won't depress his odds. Secondly, we have no idea if Colonel John will handle real dirt. Just because he beat Gayego on the carpet, doesn't mean Colonel John would've won that race yesterday at Oaklawn. Other 3YOs who were highly regarded earlier, like Dennis of Cork and Cool Coal Man, fizzled in their last prep. While Cool Coal Man had an excuse, he did have a perfect trip in the FOY, and Dennis of Cork had a perfect trip when he won the Southwest. So its part of function of Big Brown's domination at GP and the unwillingness of his competition to step up.

bellamy road went off at 5-2 so you could be right.

i had to look that up as i didn't remember his odds being so low.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by JJP

I don't think Big Brown will be higher than 5-2. THere are several reasons; first, Pyro's poor Blue Grass may scare a few of his backers away. Granted, I'm completely dismissing it, but it certainly won't depress his odds. Secondly, we have no idea if Colonel John will handle real dirt. Just because he beat Gayego on the carpet, doesn't mean Colonel John would've won that race yesterday at Oaklawn. Other 3YOs who were highly regarded earlier, like Dennis of Cork and Cool Coal Man, fizzled in their last prep. While Cool Coal Man had an excuse, he did have a perfect trip in the FOY, and Dennis of Cork had a perfect trip when he won the Southwest. So its part of function of Big Brown's domination at GP and the unwillingness of his competition to step up.

THE ALL MIGHTY FU PEGASUS WAS 2-1

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by JJP

I Secondly, we have no idea if Colonel John will handle real dirt. Just because he beat Gayego on the carpet, doesn't mean Colonel John would've won that race yesterday at Oaklawn.

I'm always curious why people say things like this.
why don't we have any idea if Colonel John will be able to handle dirt? Can you name one synthetic star that has bombed on dirt because of not being able to handle it?

shippers from California pretty much owned the big stakes at Oaklawn this year. I can think of numerous examples that have handled the switch (synth to dirt), but I can't think of any who failed big time.