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  #1  
Old 04-08-2008, 01:19 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
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Default lets see how close I can get to the ML odds

1 Kip Deville Velasquez C 123 = 2/1
2 Einstein (BRZ) Albarado R J 123 = 6/1
3 Parading Velazquez J R 117 = 30/1
4 Ruff and Ready Coa E M 117 = 50/1
5 Thousand Words (GB) Castellano J J 117 = 9/2
6 Zann Leparoux J R 117 = 50/1
7 Cosmonaut Prado E S 119 = 4/1
8 Out of Control (BRZ) Gomez G K 121 = 12/1
9 Shakis (IRE) Garcia Alan 117 = 10/1
10 War Monger Desormeaux K J 119 = 8/1
11 Thorn Song Bejarano R 117 = 50/1
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  #2  
Old 04-08-2008, 01:24 PM
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Bigsmc Bigsmc is offline
Goodwood
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
1 Kip Deville Velasquez C 123 = 2/1
2 Einstein (BRZ) Albarado R J 123 = 6/1
3 Parading Velazquez J R 117 = 30/1
4 Ruff and Ready Coa E M 117 = 50/1
5 Thousand Words (GB) Castellano J J 117 = 9/2
6 Zann Leparoux J R 117 = 50/1
7 Cosmonaut Prado E S 119 = 4/1
8 Out of Control (BRZ) Gomez G K 121 = 12/1
9 Shakis (IRE) Garcia Alan 117 = 10/1
10 War Monger Desormeaux K J 119 = 8/1
11 Thorn Song Bejarano R 117 = 50/1

Is that off the top of your head, or did you look at a Form?
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  #3  
Old 04-08-2008, 01:29 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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What do you think?

He's got Rough And Ready 50/1 - even though he's a Pletcher runner who's 4-for-4 lifetime on the turf - with three of those four wins coming by margins of 5.5 lengths or more.

I think Scavs future as a linemaker is about as bright as mine as a song writer.
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  #4  
Old 04-08-2008, 01:33 PM
jcs11204 jcs11204 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigsmc
Is that off the top of your head, or did you look at a Form?
shakis and war monger will both be lower then your touting them to be
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  #5  
Old 04-08-2008, 01:35 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigsmc
Is that off the top of your head, or did you look at a Form?
Top of my head....I just made them messing around.

Drugs, I did it because the horse is way outclassed....
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  #6  
Old 04-08-2008, 01:41 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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I know Scavarino - I know.

But you did say "let's see how close I can get to the ML odds" ... even if you (or an ML maker) have a knock on a horse or don't like it's chances - the ML makers job is to assign horses odds based on what he believes they will close at.
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  #7  
Old 04-08-2008, 01:44 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I know Scavarino - I know.

But you did say "let's see how close I can get to the ML odds" ... even if you (or an ML maker) have a knock on a horse or don't like it's chances - the ML makers job is to assign horses odds based on what he believes they will close at.
Well, IN MY WORLD, I assign what they should close at

I'll be sure to clarify if I am speaking of Scav's world or real world.

Love the addition of 'arino', a good touch
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  #8  
Old 04-08-2008, 01:50 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav

Love the addition of 'arino', a good touch

Thanks man.

But I'd say it was a bit of a 'bounce' after my James Taylor lyrics tweaking epicocity.
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  #9  
Old 04-08-2008, 01:53 PM
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brockguy brockguy is offline
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surely 1000 words isnt good enough here?? why 9/2 scav
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  #10  
Old 04-08-2008, 01:49 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I know Scavarino - I know.

But you did say "let's see how close I can get to the ML odds" ... even if you (or an ML maker) have a knock on a horse or don't like it's chances - the ML makers job is to assign horses odds based on what he believes they will close at.
Is 8/1 realistic on War Monger, I have a little fun with him in this race if those odds can hold true, want to rewatch his last race at SA to see what happened there.
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  #11  
Old 04-09-2008, 09:20 AM
VOL JACK's Avatar
VOL JACK VOL JACK is offline
The Curragh
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
1 Kip Deville Velasquez C 123 = 2/1
2 Einstein (BRZ) Albarado R J 123 = 6/1
3 Parading Velazquez J R 117 = 30/1
4 Ruff and Ready Coa E M 117 = 50/1
5 Thousand Words (GB) Castellano J J 117 = 9/2
6 Zann Leparoux J R 117 = 50/1
7 Cosmonaut Prado E S 119 = 4/1
8 Out of Control (BRZ) Gomez G K 121 = 12/1
9 Shakis (IRE) Garcia Alan 117 = 10/1
10 War Monger Desormeaux K J 119 = 8/1
11 Thorn Song Bejarano R 117 = 50/1
This is without a doubt the worst ML in history. Scav, u r the man.

My top 3 picks were the fav and two 50-1 shots. "back up the truck time".
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  #12  
Old 04-09-2008, 01:43 PM
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knickslions2 knickslions2 is offline
Longchamps
 
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1 1 Kip Deville Velasquez C Dutrow, Jr. R E 123 L 5-2
2 2 Einstein (BRZ) Albarado R J Pitts Helen 123 LA 4-1
3 3 Parading Velazquez J R McGaughey III C R 117 LA 20-1
4 4 Ruff and Ready Coa E M Pletcher Todd A 117 LA 10-1
5 5 Thousand Words (GB) Castellano J J Frankel Robert 117 LA 10-1
6 6 Zann Leparoux J R McLaughlin Kiaran P 117 LA 10-1
7 7 Cosmonaut Prado E S Serpe Philip M 119 L 6-1
8 8 Out of Control (BRZ) Gomez G K Frankel Robert 121 LA 10-1
9 9 Shakis (IRE) Garcia Alan McLaughlin Kiaran P 117 LA 8-1
10 10 War Monger Desormeaux K J Mott William I 119 LA 10-1
11 11 Thorn Song Bejarano R Romans Dale 117 LA 15-1


Great field like Shakis at 8-1
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  #13  
Old 04-09-2008, 01:48 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VOL JACK
This is without a doubt the worst ML in history. Scav, u r the man.

My top 3 picks were the fav and two 50-1 shots. "back up the truck time".
I was pretty close on most of them. But yeah, way off on others. 10/1 on Ruff and Ready is ridiculous. He is facing multiple graded stakes horses, I would play the horse at 45/1 or better.

NEVER SAID I WAS A GENIUS at ML making. I'll add this to the multiple page document of things I am not a genius at
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  #14  
Old 04-09-2008, 08:40 PM
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VOL JACK VOL JACK is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I was pretty close on most of them. But yeah, way off on others. 10/1 on Ruff and Ready is ridiculous. He is facing multiple graded stakes horses, I would play the horse at 45/1 or better.

NEVER SAID I WAS A GENIUS at ML making. I'll add this to the multiple page document of things I am not a genius at
As for your sig, The Bid is the king of the hedge. trust me.
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  #15  
Old 04-10-2008, 11:24 AM
Scav Scav is offline
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I take back what I said about Ruff and Ready. Besides Kip Deville, he is the fastest damn horse in the race.

I do think Kip Deville is unplayable here. I would much rather play him in his next start then this one.

As much as I don't want to say this, Einstein is value here, along with Ruff and Ready and Shakis.
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  #16  
Old 04-10-2008, 11:42 AM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
Del Mar
 
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From 50-1 to one of your top picks, Scavie? I like Ruff and Ready too.
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  #17  
Old 04-10-2008, 11:50 AM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
From 50-1 to one of your top picks, Scavie? I like Ruff and Ready too.
Yeah, I'm a moron. Ran a real good number last time, but he hasn't faced much. Don't really have a top pick in the race, very contentious. If I had to play one horse, I would be playing Einstein to Win and boxing him with like four other horses in the exacta.
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