Any respect for Pyro now?

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I keep hearing this....and I don't agree with it.

Let's start with the lifetime record of CJ's dam Sweet Damsel:

Dirt Sprint: 7-0-2-1 Earnings: $6,059 Top Beyer: 51
Dirt Routes: 12-2-2-1 Earnings: $26,897 Top Beyer: 82
Turf Races: 14-3-1-2 Earnings: $33,513 Top Beyer: 89

Basically, Sweet Damsel was a modest horse who strongly preferred running a route of ground and was slightly better on turf. She only sold for $9,500 as a yearling - I have no idea who trained and on what circuits she raced.

As for CJ's sire Tiznow - Great dirt horse for sure - but never tried turf and synthetic wasn't invented.

However, Tiznow has been a sensation synthetic track sire! Besides CJ, he's sired other synthetic lovers Bear Now, Tough Tiz's Sis, and Well Armed. All of which also could handle dirt - but all slightly more effective on synthetic tracks.

From the clues we have to go on in the pedigree - I think CJ will appreciate the 10 furlong Derby distance.....but, I believe anyone who thinks he's bred to improve on dirt is reading his pedigree wrong. He probably will hold his synthetic form - that's my guess.

well armed ran huge in dubai.

[pgiaco]

Biggest obstacle for Pyro is going to be the mutt on his back Derby day.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Cardus

As I relayed to another poster in a PM recently, I believe that if the horses out west were running up big figures (Beyer, TG, Ragozin, etc.) on the synthetic surfaces, then I'd wonder if they were merely synthetic performers. Are they running big figures? It doesn't seem like they are, though I admit I do not have the TG numbers. They certainly are not earning big Beyer figures. (I saw another 90+ BSF for the Santa Anita Derby.)

Unless you think that the west coast contingent as a group is garbage, why couldn't Colonel John (and others, perhaps) run even modestly better on dirt, which would look good on Derby day?

The out west 3 year olds are NOT running better figures, at least from a TG perspective. I can't recall the numbers, but I know that Colonel John has a really good progressing pattern, I just hope that he didn't explode in his last effort.

Matter of fact, I don't think a 3 year old has broken the 1 or 2 barrier on the west coast. I know that Big Brown has, and Pyro is right there.

[jcs11204]

i think pyro has a legit chance to clunk up for 5th, i just dont like this horse, and feel good about him not running 1-2-3 in the derby. i rate a number of horses higher.....

war pass
colonel john
dennis of cork
tale of ekati
cool coal man
z humor
even court vision i think can still improve in the key 3rd start off of a layoff, i think court vision will 100% outfinish pyro in the derby

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i think court vision will 100% outfinish pyro in the derby

Pyro will eat Court Vision's lunch, and I'm not even a huge Pyro fan. How anyone can still be a Court Vision supporter after that embarrassing, gutless run on Saturday is beyond me. At least Pyro has closing speed and isn't a total plodder.

Originally Posted by Scav

What are CJ's odds on Derby day, if War Pass goes, War Pass is probably 7/1 given the distance questions, Big Brown is probably in the 4/1 stage, Pyro is in the 5/1 unless this weekend is crazy impressive, so could CJ be in the 10-12/1 range?

I think you're dreaming if you think you're getting double digits on Colonel John. He'll be 8/1 MAXIMUM, and probably closer to 6/1 at post time.

[Travis Stone]

Assuming Pyro entered the Derby with the same look/feel as he does now, I think the odds shake-out like this for the top four:

Big Brown: 3-1
Pyro: 4-1
Colonel John: 6-1
War Pass: 7-1

Regardless of your opinion of Big Brown, we have to admit there is a massive amount of buzz about him, and that'll drive his price down.

[ateamstupid]

Why would War Pass be 7/1 when he closed at 14/1 in the Future pool?

I think enough people have soured on him to make him ~ 10/1 on Derby day.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Why would War Pass be 7/1 when he closed at 14/1 in the Future pool?

I think enough people have soured on him to make him ~ 10/1 on Derby day.

I had him at 10-1, but had a hard time figuring out the 4th choice in the wagering. It's a crazy Derby. But also, the Future Pool is more handicappers, the win pool at the Derby is more fans...

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Assuming Pyro entered the Derby with the same look/feel as he does now, I think the odds shake-out like this for the top four:

Big Brown: 3-1
Pyro: 4-1
Colonel John: 6-1
War Pass: 7-1

Regardless of your opinion of Big Brown, we have to admit there is a massive amount of buzz about him, and that'll drive his price down.

i'd wait til post-bluegrass before settling on pyros odds. based on right now, yeah i think you're right. he wins saturday, he's the favorite on derby day imo.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'd wait til post-bluegrass before settling on pyros odds. based on right now, yeah i think you're right. he wins saturday, he's the favorite on derby day imo.

I agree, but when has Keeneland produced the big effort? Their races are always tight on the wire. We might end-up learning very little about his development on Saturday if the Blue Grass mirrors last years.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Pyro will eat Court Vision's lunch, and I'm not even a huge Pyro fan. How anyone can still be a Court Vision supporter after that embarrassing, gutless run on Saturday is beyond me. At least Pyro has closing speed and isn't a total plodder.



I think you're dreaming if you think you're getting double digits on Colonel John. He'll be 8/1 MAXIMUM, and probably closer to 6/1 at post time.

3rd back, for a legend trainer... i thought his effort sat. was sneaky good. I think in the derby they will go even faster, yes the opening quarter was hot in the wood, but 1.11.2, what is that ? he should get 1.09.3 in the derby, and once again it is that key third start back.

[jcs11204]

and he showed he can win a fight, in the remsen, he was bounced around and still got rolling late, and that day he closed into nothing. He also has experience at CD.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

3rd back, for a legend trainer... i thought his effort sat. was sneaky good. I think in the derby they will go even faster, yes the opening quarter was hot in the wood, but 1.11.2, what is that ? he should get 1.09.3 in the derby, and once again it is that key third start back.

Sneaky good? What the hell is sneaky good about being a closer that couldn't win a race that was finished in almost 41 seconds? For Christ's sake, they ran the last five furlongs in 1:06.28!

The three-quarter fraction on Saturday is irrelevant, because the first two fractions were ridiculously quick. Court Vision had everything his own way and ran like a rat.

[Travis Stone]

If/when Recapturetheglory, War Pass and Big Brown go 22 seconds to the quarter, anyone from the back has a shot.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Sneaky good? What the hell is sneaky good about being a closer that couldn't win a race that was finished in almost 41 seconds? For Christ's sake, they ran the last five furlongs in 1:06.28!

The three-quarter fraction on Saturday is irrelevant, because the first two fractions were ridiculously quick. Court Vision had everything his own way and ran like a rat.

a rat who finished 3rd? durkin said was sputering and then seemed to surge a little close to the wire. why is the three-quarter fraction irrelevant ? because you say so ? 22.2-46-1.11. and whatever... why does that not matter ? teach me if i am wrong. i thought the first quarter was very fast, second slower, and third slower, so why does he have to close into that.... he will get much much faster ALL AROUND IN THE DERBY. wont he ?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i think pyro has a legit chance to clunk up for 5th, i just dont like this horse, and feel good about him not running 1-2-3 in the derby. i rate a number of horses higher.....

war pass
colonel john
dennis of cork
tale of ekati
cool coal man
z humor
even court vision i think can still improve in the key 3rd start off of a layoff, i think court vision will 100% outfinish pyro in the derby

You rate Z Humor higher than Pyro? Was it that one-paced stretch run in the Illinois Derby that convinced you? Or maybe his no-show at Tampa and Gulfstream?

The only one from your list who there's even a decent argument about being better than Pyro is Colonel John in my opinion. Cool Coal Man? He'll be exposed Saturday.

NT

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You rate Z Humor higher than Pyro? Was it that one-paced stretch run in the Illinois Derby that convinced you? Or maybe his no-show at Tampa and Gulfstream?

The only one from your list who there's even a decent argument about being better than Pyro is Colonel John in my opinion. Cool Coal Man? He'll be exposed Saturday.

NT

exposed, how ?

look at cool coal mans pp's. what has he ever done wrong ?
all he does is run hard, and work bullets.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

exposed, how ?

look at cool coal mans pp's. what has he ever done wrong ?
all he does is run hard, and work bullets.

Cool Coal Man was too close to the pace in the Kentucky Jockey Club, so that race is forgivable (though it's not like that race was full of talent). He then beat Golden Spikes in an allowance and was the beneficiary of a pretty good trip in the FOY, which is not exactly coming back as a very strong race. He is an average horse in a below average crop in my opinion.

NT

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Cool Coal Man was too close to the pace in the Kentucky Jockey Club, so that race is forgivable (though it's not like that race was full of talent). He then beat Golden Spikes in an allowance and was the beneficiary of a pretty good trip in the FOY, which is not exactly coming back as a very strong race. He is an average horse in a below average crop in my opinion.

NT

i would say golden spikes is a decent horse, compared to the others in this crop, and he came back and ran 2nd in a 500k grade 2, court vision came back to run a decent " in my opinion" third in the wood. i just think cool coal man is kinda the horse that everyone is forgetting about, and i think he runs giant this weekend.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

He'll be exposed Saturday.

They've all been exposed. No one is an auto-toss. Except maybe Anak Nakal.