3-yr-old Eclipse Award prop at Pinnacle

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

flower alley ran second in the bcc and won the travers, alex still got the vote.
now, of course bernardini won a classic, that's in his favor. but i feel he would have to win out the year to get 3 yo honors. second in the bcc wasn't enough in years past, it won't be this year either.

look at war emblem for instance....he won once after the preakness, was abysmal in the bcc, still got the eclipse. came home beat older, mdo finished second in the bcc--fat lot of good it did either of them.

I don't buy the comparisons, Danzig. Flower Alley did not win a TC race, and ran unimpressively in the Derby. That's very different from a Bernardini who won a TC race by major daylight and is undefeated.

I was no War Emblem fan, but he did win 2 TC races, and had an excuse in the Belmont after falling on his nose at the start. Came Home was also poor in the BCC, if I remember correctly. I think MDO just didn't win enough races, but I'd have to go back to check on that.

IMO, if Bernardini wins everything up to the BCC, he does not have to win the BCC to get the 3-yr-old Eclipse. In fact, if I believed otherwise, I'd be all over the Barbaro side of that Pinnacle bet. The chance of Bernardini winning out from here is much much less than even money.

--Dunbar

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I don't buy the comparisons, Danzig. Flower Alley did not win a TC race, and ran unimpressively in the Derby. That's very different from a Bernardini who won a TC race by major daylight and is undefeated.

I was no War Emblem fan, but he did win 2 TC races, and had an excuse in the Belmont after falling on his nose at the start. Came Home was also poor in the BCC, if I remember correctly. I think MDO just didn't win enough races, but I'd have to go back to check on that.

IMO, if Bernardini wins everything up to the BCC, he does not have to win the BCC to get the 3-yr-old Eclipse. In fact, if I believed otherwise, I'd be all over the Barbaro side of that Pinnacle bet. The chance of Bernardini winning out from here is much much less than even money.

--Dunbar

Some think that if Santos doesn't put a crap ride on Flower Alley in the Derby he wins for fun. He went rushing up behind Spanish Chesnut, pretty stupid

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I don't buy the comparisons, Danzig. Flower Alley did not win a TC race, and ran unimpressively in the Derby. That's very different from a Bernardini who won a TC race by major daylight and is undefeated.

I was no War Emblem fan, but he did win 2 TC races, and had an excuse in the Belmont after falling on his nose at the start. Came Home was also poor in the BCC, if I remember correctly. I think MDO just didn't win enough races, but I'd have to go back to check on that.

IMO, if Bernardini wins everything up to the BCC, he does not have to win the BCC to get the 3-yr-old Eclipse. In fact, if I believed otherwise, I'd be all over the Barbaro side of that Pinnacle bet. The chance of Bernardini winning out from here is much much less than even money.

--Dunbar

firstly, i said bernardini had an advantage because he won a classic race. i guess you missed that--apparently you also missed the fact that bernardini lost his first race, in which he finished fourth. he's won everything since, but he's definitely not undefeated.
also, for several years now i've cautioned others on their prognostications about eclipse awards, esp the 3 yo's...i don't toot my own horn often, but i haven't been wrong yet.

i think flower alley is a legit comparison, especially considering his wins in the jim dandy, the travers, his runs before the derby, and his efforts against older horses.
giving the eclipse out NOW is incredibly premature. the travers hasn't been won yet, but already some are proclaiming bernardini an easy winner--a horse who hasn't even run 10f yet, while many in his age group did so months ago--some better than others of course....

had there been no dual classic winnner last year, flower alley would have gotten the nod. at this point tho, bernardini is ahead of giacomo in accomplishments, but he's not a shoo in.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

firstly, i said bernardini had an advantage because he won a classic race. i guess you missed that

No, I didn't miss that. I even quoted it. But you went on to say,

"flower alley ran second in the bcc and won the travers, alex still got the vote. now, of course bernardini won a classic, that's in his favor. but i feel he would have to win out the year to get 3 yo honors. second in the bcc wasn't enough in years past, it won't be this year either. "

That's what I was addressing. I, and most of the people in this thread, don't think he has to win the bcc. Your comparison to Flower Alley is not valid, IMO, because (1) FA did NOT win a TC race, and (2) FA was up against a dual TC winner, whereas Bernardini is up against a single TC winner.

Originally Posted by Danzig188

--apparently you also missed the fact that bernardini lost his first race, in which he finished fourth. he's won everything since, but he's definitely not undefeated.

I did forget that, and I apologize for the error.

Originally Posted by Danzig188

also, for several years now i've cautioned others on their prognostications about eclipse awards, esp the 3 yo's...i don't toot my own horn often, but i haven't been wrong yet.

It will be hard for you to be wrong this year. To be wrong, Bernardini will have to win everything up to the BCC, THEN finish 2nd or 3rd in the BCC, THEN NOT get the 3-yr-old Eclipse. Of course, it will be almost as hard for ME to be wrong. All the same conditions as you being wrong, except Bernardini WOULD get the Eclipse. Far more likely is that neither of us will be wrong.

Originally Posted by Danzig188

i think flower alley is a legit comparison, especially considering his wins in the jim dandy, the travers, his runs before the derby, and his efforts against older horses.

Afleet Alex was the more impressive horse before the Derby. And trying to put the Jim Dandy and the Travers in the same league with the Preakness and Belmont is not reasonable. And I'm being charitable with "not reasonable".

Originally Posted by Danzig188

giving the eclipse out NOW is incredibly premature. the travers hasn't been won yet, but already some are proclaiming bernardini an easy winner--a horse who hasn't even run 10f yet, while many in his age group did so months ago--some better than others of course....

I completely agree with you there. I am not saying Bernardini deserves the Eclipse or that he will get it. We are only talking about whether he would get it if certain events come to pass. Nothing wrong with speculating. Especially when there is a bet (the Pinnacle prop) that is available that's begging for analysis.

Originally Posted by Danzig188

had there been no dual classic winnner last year, flower alley would have gotten the nod.

You are probably right about that.

Originally Posted by Danzig188

at this point tho, bernardini is ahead of giacomo in accomplishments, but he's not a shoo in.

He's hardly a shoo-in. But he does not need to win everything under the sun to overtake Barbaro.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

The money on the Pinnacle prop is coming in primarily on Bernardini. The line is now:

101 Barbaro +121
102 Bernardini -137

For those not familiar with sports notation, "+121" means you bet 100 to win 121. "-137" means you bet 137 to win 100. So Barbaro is about 6-5 while Bernardini is about 7-10.

--Dunbar