3rd Derby Future Book Wager

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

Last year, "all others" in Pool 3 closed at 25.5-1, but the average close since 2000 is 14-1.

Here are PP's for the 23 individual Pool 3 entries:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/..._123_pool3.pdf

--Dunbar

[Thunder Gulch]

Give me some Court Vision, currently 30-1 (9am Friday). Ok, his final number will depend on what he does tomorrow, but I think he's the best suited of the "second tier" horses.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Give me some Court Vision, currently 30-1 (9am Friday). Ok, his final number will depend on what he does tomorrow, but I think he's the best suited of the "second tier" horses.

I'll give you 30-1 right now without waiting to see what he does tomorrow.

[Scav]

I know this sounds funny, but their could be value on Pyro in this pool, assuming it closes on Sunday. If you were to get 6/1 on Pyro in this pool, because of the legion of Big Brown followers, and Pyro goes and wins the BG easily, he will be the 3/1 favorite in the Derby, and the most likely winner. Something to consider.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

I know this sounds funny, but their could be value on Pyro in this pool, assuming it closes on Sunday. If you were to get 6/1 on Pyro in this pool, because of the legion of Big Brown followers, and Pyro goes and wins the BG easily, he will be the 3/1 favorite in the Derby, and the most likely winner. Something to consider.

What Pyro does in the Blue Grass will be about as relevant to my Derby handicapping as how he looked as a yearling and what his dosage index is. That race is a total toss. Look for another turf horse like Cowboy Cal to win it and possibly get you better than 6/1 on Pyro on Derby Day.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

What Pyro does in the Blue Grass will be about as relevant to my Derby handicapping as how he looked as a yearling and what his dosage index is. That race is a total toss. Look for another turf horse like Cowboy Cal to win it and possibly get you better than 6/1 on Pyro on Derby Day.

If that is the case then it is my only play of the weekend, this horse is going to win the Derby this year, so I guess I wouldn't mind a real bad performance on the tires.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

If that is the case then it is my only play of the weekend, this horse is going to win the Derby this year, so I guess I wouldn't mind a real bad performance on the tires.

Yeah, the worst thing that could happen would be for Pyro to take to the poly and run a big one.