3rd Derby Future Book Wager

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I don't remember those discussions, Phil. Can you give me a quick recap?

This year's pool total for Pools 1 & 2 is the smallest since the first year, 1999. I'm not sure why that is, other than some platforms like YouBet not taking the wager. Is it really so much harder to bet it now than it was in 2000? Or is Churchill Downs promoting it less than they did in the early years?

I'm a little worried Churchill is going to drop it entirely.

--Dunbar

Basically the thought is how useless having only 23 single entries is, and how easy it would be to include ALL TC nominated horses, which would provide the value required of a future bet. Right now there isn't anything to gain by betting into this future pool other than pride.

[fpsoxfan]

Visionaire has piqued my interest. Where do you folks think he ends up?
Below or above 20-1?

[hockey2315]

Above 20-1 but he won't get the distance. Cool Coal Man will offer the most value when the pool closes imo.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Above 20-1 but he won't get the distance. Cool Coal Man will offer the most value when the pool closes imo.

I took CCM in the 2nd pool... $55.40 payout for $2.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Visionaire has piqued my interest. Where do you folks think he ends up?
Below or above 20-1?

Got him in the 2nd pool.....even though some laughed at me, still think he's a good longshot.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

Basically the thought is how useless having only 23 single entries is, and how easy it would be to include ALL TC nominated horses, which would provide the value required of a future bet. Right now there isn't anything to gain by betting into this future pool other than pride.

I'm not sure that's a good idea. Having 400+ entries would mean chaos in the odds. There will be so little money bet on 90% of the horses that you'll have to hope no one else is betting at the last minute like you are.

I also disagree that the current structure can't offer value. In fact, I'm quite certain it can and regularly does offer value.

--Dunbar

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm not sure that's a good idea. Having 400+ entries would mean chaos in the odds. There will be so little money bet on 90% of the horses that you'll have to hope no one else is betting at the last minute like you are.

I also disagree that the current structure can't offer value. In fact, I'm quite certain it can and regularly does offer value.

--Dunbar

I agree with this, and think their might be a happy medium somewhere along the lines of maybe 80-100 horses, at least in the first pool. I think the 3rd pool overall is kind of a bad idea. Maybe just have one pool in early March that would make it more of an event?

Plus, anyone who has access to a Vegas sportsbook can usually get a great price on derby hopefuls they like anytime between October and March

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm not sure that's a good idea. Having 400+ entries would mean chaos in the odds. There will be so little money bet on 90% of the horses that you'll have to hope no one else is betting at the last minute like you are.

I also disagree that the current structure can't offer value. In fact, I'm quite certain it can and regularly does offer value.

--Dunbar

I can assure you handle would be MUCH higher if 400 entries were available. For example... what if you liked Big Brown back in January? Too bad- you're stuck with "all others" at 4-1. Or in 2004, what if you liked Smarty Jones? Too bad, again, you're stuck punching the "all others" at 4-1.

I'd like to see one time where someone actually got the value they were looking for out of the future pool. Funny Cide... MAYBE.

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I agree with this, and think their might be a happy medium somewhere along the lines of maybe 80-100 horses, at least in the first pool. I think the 3rd pool overall is kind of a bad idea. Maybe just have one pool in early March that would make it more of an event?

Plus, anyone who has access to a Vegas sportsbook can usually get a great price on derby hopefuls they like anytime between October and March

Not anymore you can't. Any horse that shows a HINT of ability instantly drops to 25-1... which isn't value in a future wager.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

I can assure you handle would be MUCH higher if 400 entries were available. For example... what if you liked Big Brown back in January? Too bad- you're stuck with "all others" at 4-1. Or in 2004, what if you liked Smarty Jones? Too bad, again, you're stuck punching the "all others" at 4-1.

I'd like to see one time where someone actually got the value they were looking for out of the future pool. Funny Cide... MAYBE.

Phil, it's a 16% takeout. Same as race day. Just like on race day, some horses will be overhyped and some will be overlooked. And some people are kind enough to toss money in the future pool even though the horse they are betting on will run before the pool closes. (How much will be bet on War Pass, El Gato Malo, et al before they race this weekend?!) That doesn't happen on race day. Some bets are probably going to have value. All the usual complaints (horses might not make it into the starting gate, etc) don't change the underlying vig. If you truly think no individual horse has value, then "all others" would likely have value.

--Dunbar

[hailrazer]

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

That's TERRIBLE value

[Scurlogue Champ]

I have a feeling that the limit of 24 could have something to do with tote...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

Last year, "all others" in Pool 3 closed at 25.5-1, but the average close since 2000 is 14-1.

Here are PP's for the 23 individual Pool 3 entries:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/..._123_pool3.pdf

--Dunbar

[Thunder Gulch]

Give me some Court Vision, currently 30-1 (9am Friday). Ok, his final number will depend on what he does tomorrow, but I think he's the best suited of the "second tier" horses.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

Why would you do that when there is maybe a 25% chance that Eight Belles goes to the Derby, and then even when she gets there, you'd get WAY better odds on derby day...probably in the 30-1 range at least.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Why would you do that when there is maybe a 25% chance that Eight Belles goes to the Derby, and then even when she gets there, you'd get WAY better odds on derby day...probably in the 30-1 range at least.

As an FYI... of the Jones' fillies, from what I hear, Proud Spell is far more likely to try Derby than Eight Belles..

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Why would you do that when there is maybe a 25% chance that Eight Belles goes to the Derby, and then even when she gets there, you'd get WAY better odds on derby day...probably in the 30-1 range at least.

It's not that simple. You would probably get a few other Derby runners with the "All others" bet. So you can't compare it directly to waiting for Eight Belles in the Derby.

--Dunbar

[hailrazer]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Why would you do that when there is maybe a 25% chance that Eight Belles goes to the Derby, and then even when she gets there, you'd get WAY better odds on derby day...probably in the 30-1 range at least.

Wasn't saying Eight Belles was any kind of value at 15-1 and I won't be playing the future bet. Just saying that I like the horse and would like to her on my side if she goes in the Derby, along with the other horses that may impress in the last preps and end up in the field. Out of the 25 options listed, this is the one I would choose.