Bodog bet on Curlin and track record

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

since they're going roughly 55 ft/sec, you can then expect 2000 meter races to be about .69 seconds faster on average than 1 1/4 mile races, all other things equal.

Your math is correct if they run the same speed around the track (i.e., 37.5 mph for a 2 minute mile and a quarter). What would be interesting to know is how much the .058 of a furlong (about a 1/16th of a furlong, or 1/128th of a mile) changes that, is it as much as .8 seconds? could be, since even the absolute best horses in the world would run the last furlong of a mile and a quarter race in more like 12 4/5 than 12 seconds.

[CSC]

Don't forget Nad El Sheba is a one turn 2000 metres, so it may be even shorter than the conventional about 1 1/4 distance.

Originally Posted by CSC

Don't forget Nad El Sheba is a one turn 2000 metres, so it may be even shorter than the conventional about 1 1/4 distance.

I think the one turn is the more important consideration.
A 2000 meter 2 turn or 1 turn race is still shorter than 1 1/4 miles.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by CSC

Don't forget Nad El Sheba is a one turn 2000 metres, so it may be even shorter than the conventional about 1 1/4 distance.

Isn't 2000 meters 2000 meters no matter how many turns?

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Isn't 2000 meters 2000 meters no matter how many turns?

It certainly should be.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Isn't 2000 meters 2000 meters no matter how many turns?

If I walk in a circle, do I end up at the same place?

[Oaklawnfan]

For those of us who have no platform available to us, I find it really interesting that you would even comment on a Bodog prop. Living where I do and having no standard opportunity to play this game from my home, I chose to use Bodog, because at least they seemed to at least be interested in this sport outside of just making book. Is that a fair assumption?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Isn't 2000 meters 2000 meters no matter how many turns?

Yes, probably a bad choice of words by me. What I mean't was there is a difference between 1 turn routes to 2 turn routes. Obviously when you run further from the rail around 2 turn routes you lose more ground as compared to a 1 turn route when you are basically running in a straight line.

[ArlJim78]

I see where Alan Shuback of the DRF says in his race analysis of the WC that its Curlins race to lose, but sometimes he throws a dull effort, and if he does then Jalil is one that can "pick up the pieces".
I guess for him the Haskell and Derby were dull efforts by Curlin. The problem with this is that those "dull" efforts by Curlin are not actually very dull by any measure and would be lifetime best figures for Jalil.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by philcski

Your math is correct if they run the same speed around the track (i.e., 37.5 mph for a 2 minute mile and a quarter). What would be interesting to know is how much the .058 of a furlong (about a 1/16th of a furlong, or 1/128th of a mile) changes that, is it as much as .8 seconds? could be, since even the absolute best horses in the world would run the last furlong of a mile and a quarter race in more like 12 4/5 than 12 seconds.

yes you are right, however it barely makes any difference. if i take your 12.8 seconds/furlong rate that changes the final speed to 51.5 ft/sec which means that the reduced distance of 38.322 feet saves .743 seconds compared to the 1 1/4 mile distance.

please forgive me for underestimating the time savings by .05 seconds.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

yes you are right, however it barely makes any difference. if i take your 12.8 seconds/furlong rate that changes the final speed to 51.5 ft/sec which means that the reduced distance of 38.322 feet saves .743 seconds compared to the 1 1/4 mile distance.

please forgive me for underestimating the time savings by .05 seconds.

That .05 could be the difference between a win and a loss in this bet. Sorry, I'm a math geek, can't help myself

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by philcski

That .05 could be the difference between a win and a loss in this bet. Sorry, I'm a math geek, can't help myself

I know, I am too.

I was just giving a rough idea for what the difference would be between the two distances on average.

i certainly didn't mean to imply that .05 seconds is not important in this game. after all what is a nose length? 1 inch? thats only around .0015 seconds so .05 seconds is 33 noses!!!