Tampa Bay 4

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Didn't realize, at first, that he missed the Oaks too...That at least was a tough race to call...Lookingforthesecret was a no-brainer to include though, and I'd like to see his reasoning behind leaving him off...Pretty amatuerish...The single of BT was bold, but the reality of the ticket barely paying for itself with a more reasonable Oaks winner/War Pass combo would have been enough to take a flyer on BT or Atoned in the last leg, I guess...

That race was far from tough IMO. Obviously I am speaking after the fact but the 5 was the 3rd fastest horse in the race, and he was running 6f/7f with Awesome Again out of an AP Indy mare breeding. The filly obviously has some issues only going for 100k and to those connections, but they look like they worked through them. Lets really look at it.

Calico Bay just ran the race of her life on the poly while improving 3pts and she 'bo' last time, the 1 and 2 were just not fast enough, the 6 My Baby Baby could be argued but using Andy's theory in regards to debut turfers, and how this horse is bred to be a turf horse, Dee's Rose was the slowest in the race and Unfolding Wish, while fast enough sprinting, is bred to sprint, and showed she was a sprinter. The 4 was most likely and the 5 was the best value and the 6 was an include unless you didn't believe in her dirt prowlness.

Now, obviously I am excited that a tout of mine came through, one of my friends hit big because of it, and I haven't had a successful tout of mine hit in a while (actually yesterday, i was going to do a long shot write up, and Awesome Chic and Polonius were going to be on it, along with a bad trip 5th in the a race at Santa Anita, I had it done and deleted it because I am gunshy now) but Awesome Chic was far from impossible given she was already fast sprinting, and had every right to stretch out.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Scav

That race was far from tough IMO. Obviously I am speaking after the fact but the 5 was the 3rd fastest horse in the race, and he was running 6f/7f with Awesome Again out of an AP Indy mare breeding. The filly obviously has some issues only going for 100k and to those connections, but they look like they worked through them. Lets really look at it.

Calico Bay just ran the race of her life on the poly while improving 3pts and she 'bo' last time, the 1 and 2 were just not fast enough, the 6 My Baby Baby could be argued but using Andy's theory in regards to debut turfers, and how this horse is bred to be a turf horse, Dee's Rose was the slowest in the race and Unfolding Wish, while fast enough sprinting, is bred to sprint, and showed she was a sprinter. The 4 was most likely and the 5 was the best value and the 6 was an include unless you didn't believe in her dirt prowlness.

Now, obviously I am excited that a tout of mine came through, one of my friends hit big because of it, and I haven't had a successful tout of mine hit in a while (actually yesterday, i was going to do a long shot write up, and Awesome Chic and Polonius were going to be on it, along with a bad trip 5th in the a race at Santa Anita, I had it done and deleted it because I am gunshy now) but Awesome Chic was far from impossible given she was already fast sprinting, and had every right to stretch out.

Great analysis... now how about doing it BEFORE the race!

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Scav

That race was far from tough IMO. Obviously I am speaking after the fact but the 5 was the 3rd fastest horse in the race, and he was running 6f/7f with Awesome Again out of an AP Indy mare breeding. The filly obviously has some issues only going for 100k and to those connections, but they look like they worked through them. Lets really look at it.

Calico Bay just ran the race of her life on the poly while improving 3pts and she 'bo' last time, the 1 and 2 were just not fast enough, the 6 My Baby Baby could be argued but using Andy's theory in regards to debut turfers, and how this horse is bred to be a turf horse, Dee's Rose was the slowest in the race and Unfolding Wish, while fast enough sprinting, is bred to sprint, and showed she was a sprinter. The 4 was most likely and the 5 was the best value and the 6 was an include unless you didn't believe in her dirt prowlness.

Now, obviously I am excited that a tout of mine came through, one of my friends hit big because of it, and I haven't had a successful tout of mine hit in a while (actually yesterday, i was going to do a long shot write up, and Awesome Chic and Polonius were going to be on it, along with a bad trip 5th in the a race at Santa Anita, I had it done and deleted it because I am gunshy now) but Awesome Chic was far from impossible given she was already fast sprinting, and had every right to stretch out.

ring....ring...


GPK: Yo...what up?

Scav: Yo...I ain't playing sh*t...but I looked at the sheets and I really like Awesome Chic today. She should be a price too.

GPK: Thanks bro



umm...what part of that phone call did I miss?

Oh yeah....



























ALL OF IT!!!

HILLSBOROUGH

Not much cappin here as this heat had only six entrants and the speed was quite clear. We went three long and cannot beat ourselves up much, although many felt that the inclusion of May Night was without merit. At some twenty five to one, freshly blinkered (start #23) and a string of salty works she was difficult to cull. Dreaming of Anna returns $4.40 as the second choice with a free running, clear cut score.

OAKS

Absolutely no handle here yet the omission of Awesome Chic was an egregious error and the $28.80 win price did little to lessen the mistake. In hindsight, we figured her maybe half that price as her pedigree screamed two turns and her second dam is a full to talented racehorse and successful sire Seeking the Gold. Obscure connections, a very odd work pattern and being entered no boy clouded what should have been a much clearer picture. Nevertheless we dropped the ball and our pick four imploded. This was the first races we have watched since Curlin's tour de force in the quagmire on the shore and at the five eights pole the winner was easily spotted sitting chilly on the fence. Heard the connections bet a ton and congratulate them.

TURF DASH

Both the paper and the odds board suggested that the winner would come from one of three horses. Around the Cape and Fort Prado were both 28-10 and the wire to wire Lookinforthesecret at 17-10. Several posters surmised that our exclusion of the winner was primitive but that is not at all the case. While we go out of our way to omit any horse something to five in our sequence tickets, this one begged to be dumped; not by the past performances but by the words of his trainer! Jamie Ness who is batting a very fat 38% ran a horse earlier on the card and was interviwed by TVG. When asked about Lookinforthesecret he replied (paraphrased) " We will probably scratch him, he does not like it soft and he is too nice a horse, no big deal we will run him another day". After hearing that comment he was difficult to include indeed and although we appreciate most comments positive and otherwise, our "rookie" mistake was in the previous heat. The 'Cape left his race in the paddock and the 'Fort was off last and it is a long year with much bigger fish to fry.

DERBY

The Tampa surface is as quirky as any in the nation. The spring rains, unique banking, high sand content and ever changing camber make handicapping here more than a bit challenging. With that said, the singling of Big Truck ($16.40) was an easy decision and one that was arrived at quickly. Three major handicapping factors pointed this one out; a very solid race over the track, splendid workouts and the age old tenet that spring sophomores are extremely weight sensitive. As for War Pass, he looked a picture in the paddock but once he got on the track he looked very listless. In the running he took the worst of it and while the race would be a throwout for any other horse, this one was 1-20, an undefeated champion and is expected to contend for the roses... not after this. In defense of Zito, not that he needs one, he knows this horse would probably not stay nine panels let alone ten and few horses are at the top of their game when they run. Many are sore much like an NBA player battling a nagging nick. The critics of Zito and War Pass will note that the planned race schedule and subsequent work pattern were half past bizarre and they would be right. Hopefully this one will race again as there is no questioning his talent, just his distance limitations. We bet some scratch on the Truck but did not play him across the board. The four comes back a robust $1900 for a buck and this four pack was very poorly played by us. As for Atoned, his effort puts him in the mix. As for John Velasquez, he continues to try to ride all the horses.. reminds us of his agent, just not near as good. BBB

[MISTERGEE]

none of us should ever leave out the "miracle worker" Jaime Ness
hall of fame here he comes, after kirk ziadie of course

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

HILLSBOROUGH

Not much cappin here as this heat had only six entrants and the speed was quite clear. We went three long and cannot beat ourselves up much, although many felt that the inclusion of May Night was without merit. At some twenty five to one, freshly blinkered (start #23) and a string of salty works she was difficult to cull. Dreaming of Anna returns $4.40 as the second choice with a free running, clear cut score.

OAKS

Absolutely no handle here yet the omission of Awesome Chic was an egregious error and the $28.80 win price did little to lessen the mistake. In hindsight, we figured her maybe half that price as her pedigree screamed two turns and her second dam is a full to talented racehorse and successful sire Seeking the Gold. Obscure connections, a very odd work pattern and being entered no boy clouded what should have been a much clearer picture. Nevertheless we dropped the ball and our pick four imploded. This was the first races we have watched since Curlin's tour de force in the quagmire on the shore and at the five eights pole the winner was easily spotted sitting chilly on the fence. Heard the connections bet a ton and congratulate them.

TURF DASH

Both the paper and the odds board suggested that the winner would come from one of three horses. Around the Cape and Fort Prado were both 28-10 and the wire to wire Lookinforthesecret at 17-10. Several posters surmised that our exclusion of the winner was primitive but that is not at all the case. While we go out of our way to omit any horse something to five in our sequence tickets, this one begged to be dumped; not by the past performances but by the words of his trainer! Jamie Ness who is batting a very fat 38% ran a horse earlier on the card and was interviwed by TVG. When asked about Lookinforthesecret he replied (paraphrased) " We will probably scratch him, he does not like it soft and he is too nice a horse, no big deal we will run him another day". After hearing that comment he was difficult to include indeed and although we appreciate most comments positive and otherwise, our "rookie" mistake was in the previous heat. The 'Cape left his race in the paddock and the 'Fort was off last and it is a long year with much bigger fish to fry.

DERBY

The Tampa surface is as quirky as any in the nation. The spring rains, unique banking, high sand content and ever changing camber make handicapping here more than a bit challenging. With that said, the singling of Big Truck ($16.40) was an easy decision and one that was arrived at quickly. Three major handicapping factors pointed this one out; a very solid race over the track, splendid workouts and the age old tenet that spring sophomores are extremely weight sensitive. As for War Pass, he looked a picture in the paddock but once he got on the track he looked very listless. In the running he took the worst of it and while the race would be a throwout for any other horse, this one was 1-20, an undefeated champion and is expected to contend for the roses... not after this. In defense of Zito, not that he needs one, he knows this horse would probably not stay nine panels let alone ten and few horses are at the top of their game when they run. Many are sore much like an NBA player battling a nagging nick. The critics of Zito and War Pass will note that the planned race schedule and subsequent work pattern were half past bizarre and they would be right. Hopefully this one will race again as there is no questioning his talent, just his distance limitations. We bet some scratch on the Truck but did not play him across the board. The four comes back a robust $1900 for a buck and this four pack was very poorly played by us. As for Atoned, his effort puts him in the mix. As for John Velasquez, he continues to try to ride all the horses.. reminds us of his agent, just not near as good. BBB

Basing your inclusion or exclusion of a horse because of a trainer interview on TVG is beyond a rookie mistake. Wow.