Just wondering Oracle....

[ArlJim78]

It seems to me that I have noticed over the years a relatively high percentage of big favorites going down to defeat against small fields. There seems to be a tendency for an incorrect pace which is what I think happened to Songster. Also the fact that the field is small gives an opportunity for the horses at higher odds to get perfect trips and hence optimal performances.
In the Amsterdam you had three speeds and one closer which means the closer had everything his way and no trip issues. In a full field I doubt that Court Folly would have been able to get such a clean run at Songster.

I've seen it the other way too, all closers and one speed in a small field, the big favorite being one of the closers. The riders on the closers don't want to let the lone speed have it too easy so they stay close to the pace and possibly move too early thereby taking their horses out of their normal style.
Suddenly when everyone is expecting the speed to die and the closers to take over the speed finds another gear and the closers are finished.