Inner Track Bias

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Statesman is the best bottom level claimer this year.

Mr Pants...how you came up with this horse, on this track, on this day, is an amazing feat in itself...hopefully you were rewarded handsomely along with your pick 4 ticket, as the 3 he beat home were the only playable horses (besides the speedy statesman of course) in the race...good job

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Mr Pants...how you came up with this horse, on this track, on this day, is an amazing feat in itself...hopefully you were rewarded handsomely along with your pick 4 ticket, as the 3 he beat home were the only playable horses (besides the speedy statesman of course) in the race...good job

Well it was a horrendous race to begin with and I just couldn't take what I knew would be short prices on Maragh and Cedeno's horses. I've ripped up too many tickets due to their mediocrity. So I started looking at Statesman and noticed his beyer first off the long layoff was real competitive with the rest of the field. I drew a line through his last effort.

I was guessing that the race would have plenty of speed and he was the most likely out of the bunch to close.

Basically I was really lucky.

Side note...

The track was playing kinda fair all weekend.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Well it was a horrendous race to begin with and I just couldn't take what I knew would be short prices on Maragh and Cedeno's horses. I've ripped up too many tickets due to their mediocrity. So I started looking at Statesman and noticed his beyer first off the long layoff was real competitive with the rest of the field. I drew a line through his last effort.

I was guessing that the race would have plenty of speed and he was the most likely out of the bunch to close.

Basically I was really lucky.

Side note...

The track was playing kinda fair all weekend.

Andy said the same thing, but outside of the 1st race on Saturday you had to be on or near the lead to win...and yesterday, especially as the day wore on, it seemed impossible for horses to pass in the stretch...

i can live with the 7th race because dominguez moronically made 2 moves with his horse and the winner was just cruising, but for Wishing Wishes not to be able to pass the winner in her race, for the entire length of the stretch, after being pressured through the opening quarter plus in 22 and change, put me over the top...

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Andy said the same thing, but outside of the 1st race on Saturday you had to be on or near the lead to win...and yesterday, especially as the day wore on, it seemed impossible for horses to pass in the stretch...

i can live with the 7th race because dominguez moronically made 2 moves with his horse and the winner was just cruising, but for Wishing Wishes not to be able to pass the winner in her race, for the entire length of the stretch, after being pressured through the opening quarter plus in 22 and change, put me over the top...

Can't blame NYRA for what's going on up there: they're giving the people what they're accustomed to/want. American horseplayers are SPEED biased; makes sense, then, that tracks would do all they can to favor speed.

I mean, look at all the complaining that goes on when horses consistently come off the pace, as they did at KEE last meet. There's MUCHO confusion. That can happen when your intuitions are about numbers rather than races.

It's a stacked game. And, counterintuitive, as ONLY in dirt horse racing does the LEADER hold such an advantage over the field. Doesn't happen in auto racing; doesn't happen in cycling. Makes sense it wouldn't, as it's contrary to physics.

That's one of the reasons I started playing turf almost exclusively last summer. While different turf courses have their 'nuances' and it takes a while to get the hang of all them at the different tracks, when push comes to shove, you know you can get a FAIR RACE on the turf at BEL. There's one track, at least, where the best horse has the best chance of winning.

In the meantime, I torture myself by continuing to bet CLOSERS at FG, SA, TAM, and GP.

Just so much of watching gutless horses win races they'd otherwise be buried in that one could take.