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#1
02-29-2008, 11:45 PM
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John Shirreff's has been aiming for the Santa Anita Handicap with Tiago all winter. His two races this meet have been very good. He wasn't cranked up in his return race the San Fernando and the top two horses battled each other 1-2 around the track. In the Strub Stakes, the trainer wanted Mike Smith to have Tiago well off the pace for the first half-mile. The winner Monterey Jazz ran an insane race and one I can't imagine him replicating.Tiago is 6-1 and he might be between 4 and 6-1 when they go to post. He's a multiple Grade 1 winner on dirt. He's had three very good works since the Strub ending with a minute and three fifths breeze earlier this week. If he's good enough, and I believe he is compared to his competition, he'll run a good race and probably win the Big Cap.
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#2
03-01-2008, 12:26 AM
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War Monger is a good horse and he might be good enough to beat these horses. However he's shipping out west for the first time and while he's probably not facing a true Grade 1 field, these horses are better than the ones he has raced with thus far. War Monger is 8/5 morning line and he's a bet against as a heavy favorite. I think there will be enough pace here with Storm Military and Willow O Wisp that Out of Control will have a perfect setup to stalk, pounce and have enough to hold off the late close of War Monger. If Out Of Control is anywhere near the 4-1 m/l odds when they go to post he will be a good horse to wager on.
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#3
03-01-2008, 04:52 AM
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So instead of cheering at having a 14-horse field in a major race you grouse about the quality. Heads up, lads - 14-horse fields of the past contained questionable horses, too, who got real weight concessions (105 lbs vs 130 on the top-weight) to give them a shot. Not every SA Hcp winner has been one for the ages, either - do the names Azucar, Olhaverry, and Linmold ring any bells? Milwaukee Brew, who won this one twice (the first such dual winner who didn't have help from the stewards' room), didn't look like much, either, until he got to run 10f.
If you have a star, or two or three, you get a small field. If you don't have a star, you get a big field and an interesting betting contest. Be thankful for what you have, and shed a tear for the grand old Gulfstream Park H, once a 10f test of champions, like Round Table, Coaltown, Armed, Kelso, Pretense, Forego, etc., now merely a shadow of its former self.
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#5
03-01-2008, 06:43 PM
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#7
03-01-2008, 07:43 PM
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#9
03-01-2008, 07:59 PM
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so i'm assuming well armed, who beat heatseeker last time out, is headed for dubai. they mentioned they were looking at one or the other a few weeks ago...
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#10
03-01-2008, 07:59 PM
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__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#11
03-01-2008, 07:24 AM
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I love that the race has 14 instead of 6 horses.
Monterey Jazz should have an uncontested lead. Not really sure where Medici Code will be - would have to be a different animal to contend. Euro All-weather record a plus? It's probably the 20-1 M/L but I like Celtic Dreamin. Shouldn't have to pass everyone to get there. If you like Go Between you have to include him. Hearing that Tiago has been pointed to this one ...Nice horse just can't bet all of them. Student Council has an excuse as well Champs Elysees - Frankel is 21% going from turf to All-weather Monterey Jazz would have to quit on his own. Everyone else is running for place. barring race time insights the bet is 6 w/ 1, 9, 12 w/ 1, 2, 5, 9, 12 w/ 1, 4, 5, 9, 11, 12 what is that like $20 for a dime 
__________________
ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
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#12
03-01-2008, 10:28 AM
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__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#13
03-01-2008, 11:10 AM
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It's all about watching how the track plays and then finding value from the group of horses that can win with that bias and eliminating the ones that can not. Think of it like handicapping a yeilding or worse turf race. You can't use Monterey Jazz or Air Commander unless speed horses earlier in the card show the way.
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#14
03-01-2008, 04:49 PM
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#15
03-01-2008, 05:55 PM
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Out of Control
Tiago
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#16
03-01-2008, 01:01 PM
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#17
03-01-2008, 09:49 PM
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As for the winner, he does seem like at distances of 9f and up on synthetic, he is a pretty decent horse.
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#18
03-01-2008, 08:25 AM
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I'm ready for Medici Code to end up the wiseguy horse in here because of the back synthetic form and a couple of quick works. The thing about this guy is that I can't see how you'd be making a good investment at less than 8-1.
This race is inscrutable and if pressured I'd say I'll throw a few bucks at Go Between. Good luck all! NT
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