Need Help. Is this a lock?

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by tomm5647

Hello all. I rarely post but i read everyday and I really appreciate the information and insights that are available here everyday. I'm asking for your input on tomorrows 8th at Aqueduct. I have #5 Jack's Express in my stable mail. He raced 2/24 finished a tiring 4th and was claimed by Gary Contessa on that day. Contessa is wheeling him right back in the 8th tomorrow. 5/2 ML and I'm thinking to back him BIG. Am I nuts? What do you think? Don't worry you won't hurt my feelings. be honest.

He's not in for a tag, when others are....including Touchdown Kid. That's to be noted.

I'm not able to check the histories, but also note this is a $49,000 race for New York breds only. Someone might have needed to claim a New York bred to be in this one.

Not touting, but just things I'd look at.

If I had a hunch like you seem to have, I'd probably play solidly to win, with a place bet to recoup and still end up a slight winner if he finishes 2nd.

With three horses with morning lines of 5-2, 7-2, and 2-1 I'd think the place would be a healthy insurance.

If I lose both, it just wasn't my day but I played my research and observations I'd think if in your shoes.

Not the way I ordinarily bet, understand. But the way I do occasionally bet on a strong feeling in similar situations.

Lay it out there for a nice win if you're right, but don't risk too much in case you've misread.