The New 'HWJB' Betting Dairy

[Hwjb]

Just the 2 bets today on balance.

Palarshan 2pts e/w.
Ned Ludd 1pt e/w.

[Hwjb]

Have avoided looking at the competitive handicap hurdle at Hereford this arvo, concentrating instead on the weak novice and lowly handicap chase, a mistake I'll doubtless regret!

Nevertheless, the value in the former race comes from taking on Fabulous Jet. Silver Sister is likely to find this an insufficient test and I'm more interested in Josear and Sunisa, neither of whom are particularly good, but this is a weak race of its type and at the prices I can afford to dutch the pair.

1pt win Sunisa @ 17/2
1pt win Josear @ 17/2

The handicap chase is more interesting than it looks. Both Cusp and Mondial Jack look potentially well treated if off today, whereas Los Suenos almost certainly remains capable of better and Queen Excalibur is simply far too big a price.

1pt win Mondial Jack @ 12/1
1pt win Cusp @ 9/1
1pt e/w Los Suenos @ 9/1
0.5 pt e/w Queen Excalibur @ 50/1

[Hwjb]

A good day!


Edmo Yewkay, 1pt e/w, WON 15/2. +9
An Accordion, 2pts win, WON 11/2. +13.75
Aztec Warrior, 0.5pt e/w, LOST 25/1. -1
Femme d'Avril, 1pt e/w, LOST 14/1. -2
Rich Nomad, 0.5pt e/w, LOST 33/1. -1
Nemetan, 1pt e/w, WON 5/1. +6
Topless, 2pts e/w, FELL 13/2. -4
Lester Leaps In, 0.5 pt win, LOST 12/1. -0.5
Our Jasper, 1pt win, LOST 13/2. -1
Gentle John, 1pt win, LOST 4/1. -1
Idian Mix, 1pt win, LOST 7/2. -1
Sea Senor 1pt e/w, LOST 15/2. -2
Harper Valley 3pts win, LOST 11/8. -3
Something Silver 3pts win, LOST 11/4. -3
Another Rum 1pt win, LOST 5/1. -1
Five Dream 1pt win, LOST 7/2. -1
Mohayer 1pt e/w, PLACED 16/1. +3
Mephisto 1pt e/w, LOST 33/1. -2
Figurita 1pt e/w & 2pts place, LOST 8/1 & 1.36/1. -4
Pilca 3pts e/w, PLACED 12/1. +4.2
Calculaite 1pt e/w, FELL 20/1. -2
Jaunty Times 2pts win, LOST 7/2. -2
Jaunty Times and Without A Doubt 0.5pt RFC, LOST -1
Estate, 1pt win, LOST 7/2. -1
Geeveem 1pt e/w, LOST 11/2. -2
Captain Corelli 1pt e/w, LOST 16/1. -2
Hot Diamond 3pts place only, PLACED 2.1. 3.3
Mandingo Chief 2pts win, LOST 7/1. -2
Katchit 2pts win, WON 4/5. 1.6
Peacock 1pt e/w, PLACED 9/1. 1.25
King's Revenge 1pt e/w, PLACED 9/1. 1.25
Doubly Guest 4pts win, LOST evens. -4
Arnold Layne 3pts win, WON 11/8. 4.12
Palarshan 2pts e/w, LOST 12/1. -4
Ned Ludd 1pt e/w, LOST 12/1. -2
Sunisa 1pt win, FELL 17/2. -1
Josear 1pt win, WON 17/2. 8.5
Mondial Jack 1pt win, WON 12/1. 12
Cusp 1pt win, LOST 9/1. -1
Los Suenos 1pt e/w, PLACED 9/1. 1.25
Queen Excalibur 0.5pt e/w, LOST 50/1. -1

INVESTED 82.5pts
+16.72 pts
20.27% ROI

[Hwjb]

Not much quality today, but still a few of interest. At Folkestone the Newbury eyecatcher Lupanar ought to win the first, although I won't be getting involved at a shade of odds-on. I'll be interested to see how Figurita shapes in the second with handicaps a possibility next time, the trip and conditions she faces today probably an insufficient test. The 2-mile handicap chase is only of a poor standard, and probably shouldn't, but can't resist chucking a few quid at Olival, the relatively easy fences liable to suit this sketchy jumper.
There were only 2 I could fancy in the handicap hurdle, and the disparity in price between The Wooden Spoon and Mon Mome means that the former has to be backed at 9/1 or so. It's easy to see Mon Mome winning off a much lower hurdles mark but, just 11 days on from shaping amiss at Wincanton, 5/2 seems a little on the short side.
The Kent National (do we really need any more of these spurious local 'nationals'!) is no more than a fair handicap chase. Keepatem has been dropped a stone in the weights since his reappearance and, tried in blinkers, I think he can get back to form as he'd shaped as if retaining ability on his first run this season and might not be on the downgrade as a 12yo as much as his form figures suggest.

Just quickly as the race is about to start, at Southwell, I'm dutching Spiritual Society and Barton Sun in the first.

Olival 1pt win
The Wooden Spoon 2pts win
Keepatem 1pt win
Spiritual Society 1pt win
Barton Sun 1pt win

[Hwjb]

Olival, 1pt win, LOST 8/1. -1
The Wooden Spoon, 2pts win, LOST 8/1. -2
Keepatem 1pt win, LOST 7/1. -1
Spiritual Society, 1pt win, WON 8/1. +8
Barton Sun, 1pt win, LOST 14/1. -1

+3pts

[Hwjb]

In the 19f handicap chase at Doncaster the favourite Randwick Roar has a decent chance, but one that is summed up in his price, perhaps overly so. Both Marked Man and, in particular, Oso Magic make more appeal at around 7/1 or so. Marked Man can be let down by his jumping so probably less of an involvement with him, but Oso Magic looked just to need his first run back from a break last time where he went with more encouragement than for some time and is potentially well treated.

Oso Magic 2pts e/w
Marked Man 1pt e/w

[Hwjb]

Been through the card at Stratford and tempted into having a couple of bets to try and further enhance the kitty for Cheltenham!

Manhattan Boy isn't a likeable horse by any means having shaped as if amiss more than once, but there was more encouragement at Exeter last time and the way I figure it if he shows his form he'll win. On balance I'm prepared to take evens or better about him doing that.

The handicap hurdle which follows is much more interesting but nothing like as straightforward. Mickmacmagoole is worth his chance to prove that he remains progressive, but given that he looked to have a problem just 7 days ago I'll swerve him. Truckers Delight has more ability than he's shown so far, of that I'm sure, but there was a sign that his attitude isn't all that it might be at Sandown last time and I think his price pretty much reflects his chance. For me Warsaw Pact and, to a lesser extent, Daraybad represent the value.

The two and a half mile handicap chase is a pretty turgid affair, but I'm chucking a few quid at Amir El Jabal and Wenger, both of who have doubts against them in terms of temperament but are still too big a price, both around 14/1 or so.

Manhattan Boy 3pts win
Warsaw Pact 2pts e/w
Daraybad 1pt e/w
Amir El Jabal 1pt win
Wenger 1pt win