The New 'HWJB' Betting Dairy

[Hwjb]

I covered the mares maiden at Bangor just after Christmas in which Figurita, a sister to the yard's winning hurdler/chaser Floreana. made her hurdling debut. I thought she shaped with plenty of encouragement and looks nailed on to come on for it. She has plenty to find with Serhaaphim, but the 7/1 that is available looks a decent each-way bet or, alternatively, any price of evens or better in the place only market on Betfair looks good value.

Figurita 1pt e/w @ 7/1 & 2pts place.

[Hwjb]

Thanks Chris.


The betting for the two-mile handicap hurdle at Musselburgh today is remarkably one sided, with the unexposed Halla San currently odds on. He was useful on the Flat and won a novice in decent style over course and distance last time and I make him just about the most likely winner of this. However, the price is absurd. The runner-up from that race himself bombed out when made a warm favourite for a similar race to today's here last time, and the time of the novice Halla San won is not as quick as might have been expected for a seemingly well contested event and, on balance, its form I'm happy to take a reserved view about.

If he represents no value whatsoever then Pilca is an astonishingly big price. Declan Carroll did really well with this one after buying it out of a seller from Alison Thorpe, winning a handicap over course and distance on similar ground. He has shaped better than the result suggests on both starts this season, seemingly in need of the run on the first occasion and going well until the rain-softened conditions conditions caused him to weaken at Haydock next time. The booking of Tom O'Brien, who won on the horse for Thorpe is eye-catching, it much the best of his two rides at a course far more northerly than he would normally venture to. All in all the 12/1 Bet365 are offering is a superb each-way bet (I make him about a 7/2 chance or so).

In the same race I'm also having a little on Calculaite each-way at 20/1, as he has conditions to suit for the first time in a fair while (had been tried over fences before encountering ground far too soft last time), and this track suits him down to the ground.

PILCA 3pts e/w @ 12/1
CALCULAITE 1pt e/w @ 14/1

[Hwjb]

Edmo Yewkay, 1pt e/w, WON 15/2. +9
An Accordion, 2pts win, WON 11/2. +13.75
Aztec Warrior, 0.5pt e/w, LOST 25/1. -1
Femme d'Avril, 1pt e/w, LOST 14/1. -2
Rich Nomad, 0.5pt e/w, LOST 33/1. -1
Nemetan, 1pt e/w, WON 5/1. +6
Topless, 2pts e/w, FELL 13/2. -4
Lester Leaps In, 0.5 pt win, LOST 12/1. -0.5
Our Jasper, 1pt win, LOST 13/2. -1
Gentle John, 1pt win, LOST 4/1. -1
Idian Mix, 1pt win, LOST 7/2. -1
Sea Senor 1pt e/w, LOST 15/2. -2
Harper Valley 3pts win, LOST 11/8. -3
Something Silver 3pts win, LOST 11/4. -3
Another Rum 1pt win, LOST 5/1. -1
Five Dream 1pt win, LOST 7/2. -1
Mohayer 1pt e/w, PLACED 16/1. +3
Mephisto 1pt e/w, LOST 33/1. -2
Figurita 1pt e/w & 2pts place, LOST 8/1 & 1.36/1. -4
Pilca 3pts e/w, PLACED 12/1. +4.2
Calculaite 1pt e/w, FELL 20/1. -2

INVESTED 43.5 pts
+6.45 pts
14.8% ROI

[Hwjb]

Just one race I fancy getting involved in today, the three-mile handicap chase at Sandown. Frustratingly there are just the six runners as I'd have liked to have had a bit on Without A Doubt each way. As it is I fancy Jaunty Times to get back on track at around 4/1. His reappearance effort at Cheltenham was encouraging but he tended to race a shade lazily at Kempton next time. The handicapper has been fairly generous in dropping him to what looks an attractive mark given his form as a novice last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him return to that level with conditions to suit and, hopefully, the cheekpieces on to perk him up a bit. I'm not sure how much further improvement Millards Point is open to and am happy to take him on at 2/1, Bubble Boy's mark looks a stiff on and has questions to answer after shaping as if amiss last time, The Luder is a hound, so it wouldn't surprise me to see the top two in the weights finishing first and second.

Jaunty Times 2pts win.
Jaunty Times and Without A Doubt 0.5pt RFC.

[Hwjb]

Lots of good racing today, and could do with a couple of winners.

At Haydock I'll be backing Estate in the handicap hurdle and Captain Corelli and Geeveem in the Vodka race.

At Wincanton I want a fairly decent place bet on Hot Diamond in the first, a little on Mandingo Chief in the handicap chase and Katchit in the Kingwell (whilst I've never been huge on the horse, today should be his day I feel).

At Ascot Peacock and King's Revenge make plenty of appeal in the opener, whilst I also really like Doubly Guest in the mares novice.

Estate 1pt win
Geeveem 1pt e/w
Captain Corelli 1pt e/w
Hot Diamond 3pts place only
Mandingo Chief 2pts win
Katchit 2pts win
Peacock 1pt e/w
King's Revenge 1pt e/w
Doubly Guest 4pts win

[Hwjb]

Having quite a frustrating time of things at the moment, that much typified by results on Satruday.

Estate, 1pt win, LOST 7/2, -1
Geeveem 1pt e/w, LOST 11/2, -2
Captain Corelli 1pt e/w, LOST 16/1, -2
Hot Diamond 3pts place only, PLACED 2.1, 3.3
Mandingo Chief 2pts win, LOST 7/1, -2
Katchit 2pts win, WON 4/5, 1.6
Peacock 1pt e/w, PLACED 9/1, 1.25
King's Revenge 1pt e/w, PLACED 9/1, 1.25
Doubly Guest 4pts win, LOST evens, -4

-3.6pts


Arnold Layne looks to have an outstanding opportunity at Warwick today, and I'll be happy to back him at around 6/4. (3pts win).

[Hwjb]

A very late night looking through tomorrow's racing. I often get suckered into backing Henry Daly's horses on a Saturday, but I REALLY like Palarshan at present for the RP Chase. May have to lump this bastard to make up for a particularly frustrating time I'm having gambling-wise and girl-wise at present! Nothing makes you feel better than a decent priced winner of a big h'cap!