2/2 (GP): Gr. I Donn; Gr. II Swale

[JJP]

I'm not sure its fair to criticize O'Neill for the "shipping factor". The one horse that comes to mind of his that had trouble shipping is Lava Man but I always wondered if racing w/out race day Bute was the factor with him.

BTW, Spring at Last won in Dubai which is a helluva lot longer ship and tougher medication rules. SaL should sit the perfect trip. Not sure what the price will be because there's 4 absolutely no chance types who figure to take very little betting $ (the 3 grassers and Dr. Googles).

[pick4]

In the Swale I think the morning line odds are nutty. Wincat has no business being 9/5 off a maiden win at Philly Park even though his trainer Kieran McLaughlin is a sharpie. Coal Play at 5/2 is using this as a prep for the FOY or perhaps a race at Fair Grounds or Oaklawn. He's not a sprinter.

Wayne Lucas has an interesting horse, Silver Edition who has run well in all three of his races less than a mile. I think he is the horse to beat in this race. But I don't like betting Wayne Lucas' horses at short odds.

Eaton's Gift might like the return to a one turn sprint. He ran a pretty darn good race at Hollywood Park in the Hollywood Futurity. His sprint races where impressive and if you look at his debut race you'll see he raced against horses who came back to win in their next starts including Kodiak Cowboy who won the Bashford Manor and Saratoga Special. Being a colt by Johannesburg his game should be one turn sprints and if he's between 4 and 6 to 1 you have to put a few bucks on his nose.

I like Eaton's Gift to win with Silver Edition finishing second.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by pick4

In the Swale I think the morning line odds are nutty. Wincat has no business being 9/5 off a maiden win at Philly Park even though his trainer Kieran McLaughlin is a sharpie. Coal Play at 5/2 is using this as a prep for the FOY or perhaps a race at Fair Grounds or Oaklawn. He's not a sprinter.

Wayne Lucas has an interesting horse, Silver Edition who has run well in all three of his races less than a mile. I think he is the horse to beat in this race. But I don't like betting Wayne Lucas' horses at short odds.

Eaton's Gift might like the return to a one turn sprint. He ran a pretty darn good race at Hollywood Park in the Hollywood Futurity. His sprint races where impressive and if you look at his debut race you'll see he raced against horses who came back to win in their next starts including Kodiak Cowboy who won the Bashford Manor and Saratoga Special. Being a colt by Johannesburg his game should be one turn sprints and if he's between 4 and 6 to 1 you have to put a few bucks on his nose.

I like Eaton's Gift to win with Silver Edition finishing second.

Wincat is going to dust this field IMO, with or without Coal Play. His race at Philly was SUPER fast for a debut, and the only reason they went to Philly was because they got a 40% bonus on the purse for him being a PA bred. 30k for a MSW win, very Toga/Del mar esqe as far as purse size is concerned. (Now I will agree that when you have a good horse, an MSW purse should mean nothing).

I fully expect him to win this race, at even money

[JJP]

I expect the value play in the Swale to be St. Joe. Brutal pace at the bullring in the jackpot race, and he was arguably the best in the Iroquois after setting a fast pace. Now he turns back. I expect Silver Edition to go off as the favorite.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by JJP

I expect the value play in the Swale to be St. Joe. Brutal pace at the bullring in the jackpot race, and he was arguably the best in the Iroquois after setting a fast pace. Now he turns back. I expect Silver Edition to go off as the favorite.

You might be right about St. Joe. While the winner of his race race was right behind him early the rest of the pack was way back. Plus Z Humor came back to win the LeCombe at Fairgrounds. I'm going to use him with my top selection

[FGFan]

Originally Posted by pick4

You might be right about St. Joe. While the winner of his race race was right behind him early the rest of the pack was way back. Plus Z Humor came back to win the LeCombe at Fairgrounds. I'm going to use him with my top selection

Just a heads up if your using that thinking in your pick...it was Z Fortune who won the Lecomte not Z Humor.

Guess I'm going to eat chalk, probably going with Wincat and Silver Edition, interested to see what Coal Play does here.
And going to eat chalk on the Donn, have to go with Daaher, throwing Brass Hat in and either Fairbanks or Einstein just don't know about the dirt for him.

[Travis Stone]

Chalk makes me choke. Daaher's chances of a completely looose-on-the-lead scenario like he enjoyed in the Cigar Mile (where Midnite Lute was out of his ideal element) are enough for me to try and beat him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Wincat is going to dust this field IMO, with or without Coal Play. His race at Philly was SUPER fast for a debut, and the only reason they went to Philly was because they got a 40% bonus on the purse for him being a PA bred. 30k for a MSW win, very Toga/Del mar esqe as far as purse size is concerned. (Now I will agree that when you have a good horse, an MSW purse should mean nothing).

I fully expect him to win this race, at even money

IMO you are going to regret this opinion and it is one of the dangers of looking at sheets and playing races from tracks that you do not follow.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

IMO you are going to regret this opinion and it is one of the dangers of looking at sheets and playing races from tracks that you do not follow.

So you obviously think it is much more wide open? Me personally, I think there is one A and 1 B. Wincat being the A and Coal Play being the B.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

So you obviously think it is much more wide open? Me personally, I think there is one A and 1 B. Wincat being the A and Coal Play being the B.

I think there are a few horses that can win that race and I don't particularly think the horse you like is one of them.

[pick4]

In the Donn, Daaher looks like he is a legit favorite and a horse I will not spend much time trying to beat. He might face some pressure early from the likes of Fairbanks and maybe Kiss The Kid but he will dust those horses. The problem to this race is will there be a fast early pace which has Daaher winning the battle and losing the war or a moderate pace where Daaher has enough to negoitiate the 1 1/8 and cross the line first.

If they go too fast I think a classy horse like Brass Hat could pick up the pieces. Another horse I think will run well is Spring At Last. This horse has shown he has talent but has never won a two turn race on dirt. Yet he has faced top quality competition in some of his route races and he did not diggrace himself. I like that he was able to stalk a moderate pace on the grass and finish strong to win on opening day over Santa Anita's turf course.
I'm not worried about O'Neill shipping and his record. The fact that he is shipping to run here tells me he has confidence in the horse. It looks like he was pointing Spring At Last to this race.

I think I'm going to play Spring at Last to win. If he is 6-1 or higher I will wager more on him. I'll also box him in an exacta box with Dahrer.

Originally Posted by pick4

In the Donn, Daaher looks like he is a legit favorite and a horse I will not spend much time trying to beat. He might face some pressure early from the likes of Fairbanks and maybe Kiss The Kid but he will dust those horses. The problem to this race is will there be a fast early pace which has Daaher winning the battle and losing the war or a moderate pace where Daaher has enough to negoitiate the 1 1/8 and cross the line first.

If they go too fast I think a classy horse like Brass Hat could pick up the pieces. Another horse I think will run well is Spring At Last. This horse has shown he has talent but has never won a two turn race on dirt. Yet he has faced top quality competition in some of his route races and he did not diggrace himself. I like that he was able to stalk a moderate pace on the grass and finish strong to win on opening day over Santa Anita's turf course.
I'm not worried about O'Neill shipping and his record. The fact that he is shipping to run here tells me he has confidence in the horse. It looks like he was pointing Spring At Last to this race.

I think I'm going to play Spring at Last to win. If he is 6-1 or higher I will wager more on him. I'll also box him in an exacta box with Dahrer.

Watch the dirt races today and keep an eye on the undercard tomorrow before deciding on a closer.

[tiggerv]

Daaher wins by open lengths whether he leads or stalks. Very hard to close on that track.

[Scav]

I am not on either side here, but TG speaking, Brass Hat is the only one that has a competitive number with Daahar. This being said, Brass Hat should have zero excuse in this race given that he will get the pace, and the trip, and a tired front runner to run at.

But, I think it is very possible that Luzzi might let Fairbanks and Kiss the Kid clear, where Daahar is sitting third with a garden trip, and if that is the case, then Brass Hat has zero shot.

There is also the possiblity that Fairbanks/Kiss the Kid float wide on that first turn, and then Daahar gets an easy lead

Originally Posted by Scav

I am not on either side here, but TG speaking, Brass Hat is the only one that has a competitive number with Daahar. This being said, Brass Hat should have zero excuse in this race given that he will get the pace, and the trip, and a tired front runner to run at.

But, I think it is very possible that Luzzi might let Fairbanks and Kiss the Kid clear, where Daahar is sitting third with a garden trip, and if that is the case, then Brass Hat has zero shot.

There is also the possiblity that Fairbanks/Kiss the Kid float wide on that first turn, and then Daahar gets an easy lead

I hope Luzzi is that stupid to sit off of Fairbanks. That track played strictly to frontrunners yesterday and should play faster today.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Watch the dirt races today and keep an eye on the undercard tomorrow before deciding on a closer.

I like Daaher and believe he will run well. Daaher has been lights out since he added blinkers. Spring At Last is not a deep closer and I don't anticipate he'll be one in this race. As I said I'm not going to spend a lot of capital in trying to beat him.

[hockey2315]

I don't see the need to try and beat Daaher in the Pk4. . . The first leg is a little wide open, the second leg is pretty wide open being that it's a maiden race, and there are a few potential price horses in the final leg. I'll just spread in the others and single Daaher rather than have to use another horse in the Donn when none of them look like they can hang with him (especially if the track plays to speed). . .

[Bobby Fischer]

Fairbanks will not have the lead at any call and probably not out of the gate. He isn't fast enough to lead on a quick fraction. Most likely Kiss the Kidd is going to set the pace with Daaher pressing. Fairbanks could be next and Spring at Last will not be far behind.