The New 'HWJB' Betting Dairy

[Hwjb]

Edmo Yewkay, 1pt e/w, WON 15/2.
An Accordion, 2pts win, WON 11/2.
Aztec Warrior, 0.5pt e/w, LOST 25/1.
Femme d'Avril, 1pt e/w, LOST 14/1.
Rich Nomad, 0.5pt e/w, LOST 33/1.
Nemetan, 1pt e/w, WON 5/1.
Idian Mix, 1pt win, LOST 7/2.


Had a look at three of the handicaps at Wincanton so far, and think there is a bit of value knocking about, particularly in the 2:10 with Topless, something we're all very fond of as it is! She ran well in a novice at Plumpton on her chasing debut before shaping as if her stamina was stretched in a race that has worked out at Warwick last time. She remains lightly raced and probably has a bit more improvement in her, and Felix de Giles is a jockey I have a bit of time for, so no qualms about him taking over. 13/2 is a very solid each way bet, especially with Never So Blue having questions to answer at this trip. It could also be worth chucking a few quid at Even More at a big price as he is plummeting down the weights, and goes well at this course, for all he is a bit of a hound these days.

In the next, the market is correct in that Chapoturgeon has the best chance, but 11/8 is a bit short given that he looks quirky, altohugh his idling at Lingfield last time at least means he hasn't been hit as harshly as he might by the handicapper. However, Lester Leaps In appeals more as he's available at 16/1. Unfortunately there are only 7 runners, but it's worth having a bit on to win andd taking the chance, as he looked sure to come on for his reappearance when too keen for his own good and Henderson's are going really well.

Contrarily I think the market is wrong in the 3:10 as Predateur looks a rogue to me, and a hype horse to boot, his odds of 2/1 making no appeal whatsoever. I'll be laying him, whilst also backing Our Jasper (10/1), as he has the form in the book and strikes as a particularly sound jumper, and Gentle John (5/1) who has also appealed as the type to make a better chaser and finally seems to be getting his act together, possibly better than the bare result at Ascot last time, when managing to keep on despite setting a strong pace.


2:10 Topless 2pts e/w
2:40 Lester Leaps In 0.5pt win
3:10 Our Jasper 1pt win
Gentle John 1pt win

[Hwjb]

I love betting at Musselburgh, and today will be no different hopefully. The 2:00 is an interesting race in that you've got Ipay Isay who looks a bit of a 'job' horse, which means the market will basically tell you what's going to happen with him. Given that I'm looking to back Sea Senor for a place, but will also have a bit on each way. He looks sure to go well, and whilst his lack of consistency is a mite concerning, I think he had excuses on at least a couple of occasions.

Later on we see the return of Harper Valley, a horse Gordon has done really well with, his defeat of Franchoek looking better all the time. Whilst Tamimi's History beat him on the Flat giving away weight, and gets 8lb here, hurdling is a different game, and I fully expect HV to enhance his Triumph Hurdle claims.

Sea Senor 1pt e/w
Harper Valley 3pts win

[Hwjb]

Sea Senor 1pt e/w LOST 15/2. Another poor ride from Tom Greenall who is quickly becoming one of my least favourite jockeys.
Harper Valley 3pts win LOST 13/8. Reportedly injured his back after making a mistake down the back, pulled up not long after. Apparently all should be well for Cheltenham pleased to report.



Always a cracking card on this day at Newbury. In the Game Spirit I fancy Master Minded to put himself forward as a true Champion contender, although won't be backing him to do so. In the Aon Denman should be far too good for a couple of faded stars and a horse about 2 stone his inferior, but the race to be betting in is the Totesport Trophy.
I have a suspicion that there may not be quite the breakneck pace everyone expects of this race, with only Whispered Promises and Doctor David as confirmed front runners so ideally you're looking for a horse who is versatile in how he runs. I feel the Cheltenham race won by Five Dream holds the key, and the fron three from that race make most appeal here, Mohayer perhaps most so at the prices. Meanwhile at 50/1 or so Mephisto is far too big having made an encouraging return in the Fighting 5th, as he's well treated on his novice form and it would be no surprise at all to see Caracciola run another big race in this for all at 11 it may be asking too much for him to win. I will also be hoping that Roman Villa, with solid place claims, continues his upward curve for Gordon Elliott.

Five Dream 1pt win
Mohayer 1pt e/w
Mephisto 1pt e/w

There are a couple of interesting handicap chases at Ayr. Something Silver and General Hardi are almost certainly both very well handicapped at present, but with major doubts surrounding the latter's jumping, SS should be backed to win.

Meanwhile in the 2.55 there are just five runners and three confirmed front runners, so things could develop into a fair test, something which may count against Cloudy Lane whose stamina remains suspect, and I'll take a chance with Another Rum, who is inconsistent it's true, but may just be perked up by the application of headgear, and who is a thorough stayer who should be suited by conditions.


Something Silver 3pts win
Another Rum 1pt win

[Hwjb]

I covered the mares maiden at Bangor just after Christmas in which Figurita, a sister to the yard's winning hurdler/chaser Floreana. made her hurdling debut. I thought she shaped with plenty of encouragement and looks nailed on to come on for it. She has plenty to find with Serhaaphim, but the 7/1 that is available looks a decent each-way bet or, alternatively, any price of evens or better in the place only market on Betfair looks good value.

Figurita 1pt e/w @ 7/1 & 2pts place.

[Hwjb]

Thanks Chris.


The betting for the two-mile handicap hurdle at Musselburgh today is remarkably one sided, with the unexposed Halla San currently odds on. He was useful on the Flat and won a novice in decent style over course and distance last time and I make him just about the most likely winner of this. However, the price is absurd. The runner-up from that race himself bombed out when made a warm favourite for a similar race to today's here last time, and the time of the novice Halla San won is not as quick as might have been expected for a seemingly well contested event and, on balance, its form I'm happy to take a reserved view about.

If he represents no value whatsoever then Pilca is an astonishingly big price. Declan Carroll did really well with this one after buying it out of a seller from Alison Thorpe, winning a handicap over course and distance on similar ground. He has shaped better than the result suggests on both starts this season, seemingly in need of the run on the first occasion and going well until the rain-softened conditions conditions caused him to weaken at Haydock next time. The booking of Tom O'Brien, who won on the horse for Thorpe is eye-catching, it much the best of his two rides at a course far more northerly than he would normally venture to. All in all the 12/1 Bet365 are offering is a superb each-way bet (I make him about a 7/2 chance or so).

In the same race I'm also having a little on Calculaite each-way at 20/1, as he has conditions to suit for the first time in a fair while (had been tried over fences before encountering ground far too soft last time), and this track suits him down to the ground.

PILCA 3pts e/w @ 12/1
CALCULAITE 1pt e/w @ 14/1

[Hwjb]

Edmo Yewkay, 1pt e/w, WON 15/2. +9
An Accordion, 2pts win, WON 11/2. +13.75
Aztec Warrior, 0.5pt e/w, LOST 25/1. -1
Femme d'Avril, 1pt e/w, LOST 14/1. -2
Rich Nomad, 0.5pt e/w, LOST 33/1. -1
Nemetan, 1pt e/w, WON 5/1. +6
Topless, 2pts e/w, FELL 13/2. -4
Lester Leaps In, 0.5 pt win, LOST 12/1. -0.5
Our Jasper, 1pt win, LOST 13/2. -1
Gentle John, 1pt win, LOST 4/1. -1
Idian Mix, 1pt win, LOST 7/2. -1
Sea Senor 1pt e/w, LOST 15/2. -2
Harper Valley 3pts win, LOST 11/8. -3
Something Silver 3pts win, LOST 11/4. -3
Another Rum 1pt win, LOST 5/1. -1
Five Dream 1pt win, LOST 7/2. -1
Mohayer 1pt e/w, PLACED 16/1. +3
Mephisto 1pt e/w, LOST 33/1. -2
Figurita 1pt e/w & 2pts place, LOST 8/1 & 1.36/1. -4
Pilca 3pts e/w, PLACED 12/1. +4.2
Calculaite 1pt e/w, FELL 20/1. -2

INVESTED 43.5 pts
+6.45 pts
14.8% ROI

[Hwjb]

Just one race I fancy getting involved in today, the three-mile handicap chase at Sandown. Frustratingly there are just the six runners as I'd have liked to have had a bit on Without A Doubt each way. As it is I fancy Jaunty Times to get back on track at around 4/1. His reappearance effort at Cheltenham was encouraging but he tended to race a shade lazily at Kempton next time. The handicapper has been fairly generous in dropping him to what looks an attractive mark given his form as a novice last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him return to that level with conditions to suit and, hopefully, the cheekpieces on to perk him up a bit. I'm not sure how much further improvement Millards Point is open to and am happy to take him on at 2/1, Bubble Boy's mark looks a stiff on and has questions to answer after shaping as if amiss last time, The Luder is a hound, so it wouldn't surprise me to see the top two in the weights finishing first and second.

Jaunty Times 2pts win.
Jaunty Times and Without A Doubt 0.5pt RFC.